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ARTzeman
19 January 2016 17:51:17

Late posting..   Busy Day...


Met Office Hadley                 4.8c.        Anomaly         1.3c.   Provisional  to 18th.


Metcheck                             4.35c.      Anomaly         0.20c.


Netweather                          5.14c.      Anomaly         0.95c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
19 January 2016 21:53:03


Correct me if I've worked it out wrong GW but just had a look at the first half of winter CET (45 days) and came up with this as the 15 warmest using Jan provisional figures, quite incredible really.

































































20158.38
19748.06
18527.34
19887.22
19347.04
20067.02
18686.97
18336.79
18986.71
17956.63
19496.45
20136.27
19246.26
20116.24
18436.2

Originally Posted by: Sussex snow magnet 


Just so everyone is clear- '2015' does not mean 'winter 2015' but 'winter that includes the December of 2015'. Think that's right SSM?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
20 January 2016 14:01:54

Met Office Hadley             4.7c.       Anomaly       1.2c.  Provisional to 19th.


Metcheck                         4.20c.     Anomaly        0.04c.


Netweather                      4.89c.     Anomaly        0.7c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Sussex snow magnet
20 January 2016 21:36:23


 


Just so everyone is clear- '2015' does not mean 'winter 2015' but 'winter that includes the December of 2015'. Think that's right SSM?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Yes sorry

































































1st half winter 2015/168.38
1st half winter 1973/748.06
1st half winter 1852/537.34
1st half winter 1988/897.22
1st half winter 1934/357.04
1st half winter 2006/077.02
1st half winter 1868/696.97
1st half winter 1833/346.79
1st half winter 1898/996.71
1st half winter 1795/966.63
1st half winter 1949/506.45
1st half winter 2013/146.27
1st half winter 1924/256.26
1st half winter 2011/126.24
1st half winter 1843/446.2
ARTzeman
21 January 2016 11:15:57

Met Office Hadley               4.5c.        Anomaly          1.0c.


Metcheck                           4.4c.        Anomaly         -0.12c.


Netweather                        4.67c.      Anomaly          0.48c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Zubzero
21 January 2016 11:21:14


Met Office Hadley               4.5c.        Anomaly          1.0c.


Metcheck                           4.4c.        Anomaly         -0.12c.


Netweather                        4.67c.      Anomaly          0.48c. 


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Thanks for the daily updates ART.


 


Im going to be way out 

Bertwhistle
21 January 2016 19:32:50


Expect CET to rise over the coming week. 


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


It fell Art.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
22 January 2016 05:56:51

Recovery by the end of the Saturday...........


 


 


 


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
22 January 2016 11:58:41

Met Office Hadley                4.4c.       Anomaly        0.9c.


Metcheck                            4.09c.     Anomaly       -0.07c.


Netweather                         4.61c.     Anomaly        0.42c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather       4.2c.      Anomaly       -0.1c.


Clevedon Weather               6.3c       Anomaly       -0.1c.


Mount  Sorrel                      4.1c.      Anomaly       -0.1c.


Peasedown St John              4.8c.     Anomaly        -0.9c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
springsunshine
22 January 2016 18:40:50

Looks like the January CET has bottomed out and probably be a degree higher by end of month.


Imby the mean is 7c,thats 5c lower than December was here.

ARTzeman
23 January 2016 12:08:59

Risen A Little.....


 


Met  Office   Hadley       4.6c.           Anomaly       1.0c.    Provisional to 22nd.


Metcheck                      4.23c.         Anomaly         0.07c.


Netweather                   4.76c.         Anomaly         0.57c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
23 January 2016 16:38:02


Looks like the January CET has bottomed out and probably be a degree higher by end of month.


Imby the mean is 7c,thats 5c lower than December was here.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Do you mean, Dec had a mean of 12C in your part of Bournemouth? Wow!


I reckon my 5.2C bid won't be far off.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
24 January 2016 11:26:24

Met Office Hadley                4.7c.          Anomaly        1.1c.  Provisional to  23rd.


Metcheck                            4.44c.        Anomaly         0.28c.


Netweather                         4.88c.        Anomaly         0.69c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather       5.1c.         Anomaly          0.69c.


Clevedon Weather                6.6c.         Anomaly          0.2c.


Mount  Sorrel                       4.5c.         Anomaly          0.3c.


Peasedown St John               5.1c.         Anomaly         -0.6c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
24 January 2016 15:01:59

Latest CET charts for January. After the coldest spell of the winter we return to very mild conditions for most of the rest of this month. Only Thursday looks a little less warm.


My CET estimate is much lower than Hadley this month which is not unusual when there is cold weather. On my data I estimate the CET will finish at around 5.63C based on current output. This would make January another very warm month overall.


From the 14th to the 21st the CET mean was just 1.6C by my calculations so well below average and a decent cold spell.


The mean for all of the remaining days of the month looks like being almost exactly 7.0C. So not as warm as December but still exceptionally mild for the time of year.



Bertwhistle
24 January 2016 15:41:26


Latest CET charts for January. After the coldest spell of the winter we return to very mild conditions for most of the rest of this month. Only Thursday looks a little less warm.


My CET estimate is much lower than Hadley this month which is not unusual when there is cold weather. On my data I estimate the CET will finish at around 5.63C based on current output. This would make January another very warm month overall.


From the 14th to the 21st the CET mean was just 1.6C by my calculations so well below average and a decent cold spell.


The mean for all of the remaining days of the month looks like being almost exactly 7.0C. So not as warm as December but still exceptionally mild for the time of year.




Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


GW- when they calculate the seasonal CET do they simply combine the 3 monthly values and divide by 3 or do they multiply each monthly by the number of days in that month and divide by 90 (or 91 this year)? It won't make much difference I'm sure but I was interested. Either way, with your estimate for January and December's figure, and needing to beat about 20.31C in total, Feb will only need to be about 5C to give us the warmest winter on record, which WAS amazing in 1869 across the 3 months.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Global Warming
24 January 2016 22:37:20


 


GW- when they calculate the seasonal CET do they simply combine the 3 monthly values and divide by 3 or do they multiply each monthly by the number of days in that month and divide by 90 (or 91 this year)? It won't make much difference I'm sure but I was interested. Either way, with your estimate for January and December's figure, and needing to beat about 20.31C in total, Feb will only need to be about 5C to give us the warmest winter on record, which WAS amazing in 1869 across the 3 months.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I think they just divide by three. I always do it on a days basis for my calculations and usually get a very slightly different figure.

ARTzeman
25 January 2016 11:16:53

Met Office Hadley            4.9c.           Anomaly         1.3c.   Provisional to 24th.


Metcheck                        4.73c.         Anomaly         0.58c.


Netweather                     5.17c.         Anomaly         0.78c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ScientificOregon
26 January 2016 07:20:40

Definitely on for mildest winter. An ssw event in february could change things though. February could go one way or th other, a difficult cet to predict


My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
Rob K
26 January 2016 11:17:39


Definitely on for mildest winter. An ssw event in february could change things though. February could go one way or th other, a difficult cet to predict


Originally Posted by: ScientificOregon 


The latest Met outlook goes for an above average Feb with colder weather more likely in March, just when we don't want it.


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
lanky
26 January 2016 12:13:16

Provisional CET for yesterday (25th) was 11.5C which looks like a date record (again this winter !) and only 0.1C shy of the January record


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ARTzeman
26 January 2016 15:24:33

Met Office Hadley         5.2c.    Anomaly   1.5c.  Provisional to 25th


Metcheck                     4.93c.  Anomaly   0.77c.


Netweather                  5.41c.  Anomaly   1.22c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
26 January 2016 19:56:25


Met Office Hadley         5.2c.    Anomaly   1.5c.  Provisional to 25th


Metcheck                     4.93c.  Anomaly   0.77c.


Netweather                  5.41c.  Anomaly   1.22c.      


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Looks like I won't get my 5.2C; ah well. Won't be too far off.


Still need a 5C or thereabouts for Feb to crack the record.


Very do-able. Not guaranteed.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
27 January 2016 11:07:23

Met Office Hadley                 5.4c.           Anomaly          1.6c.    Provisional to 26th.


Metcheck                             5.13c.         Anomaly           0.98c.


Netweather                          5.59c.         Anomaly           1.4c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
28 January 2016 12:05:34

Met Office Hadley            5.6c.    Anomaly   1.8c.  provisional to 27th.


Metcheck                        5.18c.  Anomaly   1.03c.


Netweather                     5.78c.  Anomaly   1.59c.             






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
lanky
28 January 2016 12:38:04


Provisional CET for yesterday (25th) was 11.5C which looks like a date record (again this winter !) and only 0.1C shy of the January record


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


11.1C provisional CET mean yesterday (27th) so looks like 2 date records in 3 days


Martin
Richmond, Surrey

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