Yes, I was wondering what the T+264 chart would show.  On this chart high pressure over the Canadian Arctic, another one off the Eastern Seaboard and the LP over the US tracking NNE rather than east.

It will be interesting to see where the ECM mean charts put the high pressure - the last two runs have put it over the centre of North America.  Maybe it will be further east this time.

Well at the moment it looks like LP after LP , a brief lull then more LP's

J F F

A cold NWly flow for all

Into March from CFS and not much there for cheer

These change as much as GFS so J F F ...................or not as the case may be

Massive Bartlett covers a large portion of the NH on the ECM +240, the 1025 mb isobar runs across Southern England, down into the Med, across Egypt along the Central Sahara to the Canaries then the Azores then north east back to the UK.

Its a slug of gargantuan proportions, straight out of a 1950's B Movie and anyone expecting cold weather with that around will be very disappointed.

Andy

That is only one side of the story of that chart, Andy.

The other side is that the polar vortex does appear to be moving gradually eastwards towards Scandi, and heights do appear to be attempting towards the north-west. To be honest, I'm not sure that high is really a Bartlett anyway, not any more than those HPs to the south we saw throughout December.

Yes, this is something we really need to bare in mind. I recon the heights over greenland are far more important than the heights to the south of us. Granted its not ideal to have high heights to the south of us, however low heights in the baffin/newfoundland region are far more destructive and basically kill any cold spell no matter what else is going for it. Thankfully heights are rising there.

I was thinking the same thing.  If you run either the ECM or GFS charts through you find that the high pressure cells tend to move with the prevailing west-east flow, building and then declining in succession.    A true Bartlett scenario just runs one high after the other into mainland Europe, stalling for a few days before being replaced by the next one.

I think we all recognise that heights need to fall to the south if Arctic air is to penetrate down to northern France, so there needs to be a change, but it could come quite quickly if what you describe, i.e. heights rising to the north-west forcing the jetstream south.

Finally, ECM 12z ensemble for London: good agreement still through the coming week. By Day 13-14 the main cluster shows maxima around 6C, so just a little below average, with the mean just slightly above.

The rainfall amounts on the Op have dropped somewhat on the 12z:

Very unsettled runs this morning. Lots of ppn, wind and action with Low after Low.

Awesome IMO

Great for you Mike but the silence on here is deafening; potentially disastrous rainfall totals for the North and West and s well established zonal pattern bringing mid teen temps to the South at times.

Indeed. In the north transient colder incursions could bring wintry conditions at times but for most of lowland Britain the emphasis is very much on unsettled weather. 

The slug/Bartlett on this mornings ECM has now grown and extends into Turkey and beyond, I estimate the high pressure to the south of us to be over 6,000 miles wide, indeed the 240 ECM chart is about as bad as it can get for cold weather in the UK.

Someone is having a laugh!

Andy

Doesn't the climate of Portugal rely on winter rainfall? Isn't this pattern setting up for drought across the Iberian Peninsula - and beyond - if it persists?

It's very reminiscent of winters in the 1990s, isn't it? The pattern then was often even more locked in.

Luckily Portugal had a good wet period late Oct early Nov but none since. As you say it could be a worry. However in previous drought years there are very few interruptions to the water supply and lawns and gardens are watered throughout.

On topic though, that HIGH is some feature!

I thought the only potential impacts were around slightly cooler westerlies? I seem to recall comments about lessened temperature contrasts in that part of the Atlantic as well but wasn't convinced that would have any effects.

As we know, there are no magic bullets; far too many variables that influence our weather, with the major El Niño perhaps the one dominant factor at the moment.

The trouble is that when we get into October, certain well known names within blogosphere and the media begin spouting their rubbish and though many have now gotten wiser and not so gullible, the imminent arrival of 'winter' does raise some excitement and even worse, anticipation. The strength of El Nino was well covered and though there are exceptions, the general rule of thumb is that wet/windy weather streaming in from the Atlantic is considered the norm. My thoughts on the negative SST anomalies in the N Atlantic only strengthened my belief of a W'ly dominated winter.

The main hope now is for the end of winter to bring a greater risk of wintry weather, again following from a general rule of thumb with regards to El Nino winters. Nothing is certain but the main consensus is for height rises close to or to the W of Britain. N'ly outbreaks seem the most likely rather than anything from the E...... until the spring time when you can bet on dream charts then being churned out. Most people should know that the UK is in an unfavourable location for big freezes and whilst they do happen, the expectation for winter should always be of a wet and mild or close to average one. Any prolonged cold spells can then be a bonus but most will not use more than one pair of hands to count simultaneous cold and snowy winters during their lifetime. The alternative is to move abroad in a quest for the ideal climate but that is of course, an extreme measure

Not sure I understand that comment David.

It certainly looks like a Bartlett to me and a strong one - what is the difference between a real Bartlett and a faux Bartlett?

We seem to be plagued with a faux climate in these parts - a faux Greenie a faux Easterly and now a faux Bartlett !

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a more vigorous Low pressure area moving past the NW of Scotland tomorrow and accompanied by a series of troughs across all areas as well tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles begins close to 10000ft today falling behind a cold front to nearer 5000ft and then rising again through tomorrow as milder SW winds return. Little if any significant snow is expected across the UK today or tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow remaining strong or very strong over the next few weeks. It's direction will settle West to East across the UK within the next few days, with a very strong core across Scotland for a time next weekend before the flow remains in situ if slightly weaker next week and then right at the end turning to a more Northerly latitude for a time before turning cyclonic and weak near the West of the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show Westerly winds across the UK, strong at times and bringing spells of rain and showers through much of the period. Some shorter colder spells with showers, wintry on hills remains likely but no sustained cold weather is shown. The weather changes type at the end of the second week as High pressure moves into the UK from the South and SW settling things down with frost and fog at night.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar to the Operational in theme today with alternating spells of wind and rain or showers at times, wintry on hills especially in the North. Then on this run too High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK at the end of Week 2 with colder weather but dry weather too with frost and fog becoming much more prevalent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are showing the greatest chance being for winds blowing from a West or NW direction with High pressure down to the SW. Rain or showers and snow on hills look very likely for many but some of the clusters show High pressure closer in to the UK either from the South or West with attendant drier conditions. It is though just a 40% group who suggest this pattern with the greatest group supporting High pressure fiurther out to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy and relatively mild working week with spells of rain, heavy and prolonged at times especially tomorrow and again towards Friday. Then through the weekend a colder interlude will bring wintry showers to many even on the hills of the South for a time in a blustery NW wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs sometimes slow moving across the South and bringing spells of rain, heavy and prolonged in places and interrupted by rather colder spells in the North with showers, turning wintry at times over the hills with a repeat process of tomorrows weather system looking likely again on Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with repetitive spells of rain and strong winds alternating with relatively short colder spells, these especially over the North where wintry showers are likely between rain bands. The pattern looks largely unchanged at Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a flat pattern with strong Westerly winds throughout the coming week with fronts moving quickly East in the flow, each delivering a sometimes heavy spell of rain with brief periods of showers and colder interludes in between. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very mobile yet again with details largely irrelevant in the otherwise mix of spells of rain and showers with temperatures fluctuating from just above to just below average in the North at times. Strong winds this week moderate somewhat next week as the influence of High pressure to the South attempts to make more influence on at least the South of the UK later in an otherwise continuing Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure having shifted across to Scandinavia with an indication of less Low pressure to the NW and more High pressure down to the South. The main theme of the chart does still suggest Westerly winds with rain or showers at times though with no real pressure shown from either the cold to the North or mild from the South to change the pattern much from that currently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards slightly less mild conditions at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to GFS at 88.5 pts then UKMO at 88.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 66.8 pts to 66.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.9 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   No real change in the outputs shown today between the models with just GFS at the end of the run showing a more coherent attempt of more settled weather conditions at the end of the two week period as High pressure builds up across the UK from the SW bringing a change to dry, bright and chilly weather with night frosts and fog patches. The rest of the output including GFS up to that time continues to paint a largely unsettled and windy spell of weather to come with fast moving bands of rain and showers including alternating temperatures between slightly milder than average temperatures to slightly below average temperatures in the North. In the showery spells some snowfall can be expected across the hills even in the South at times but with any colder interludes expected to be swept away East with consumate ease no suatined wintry weather for anyone looks likely. Winds will often be strong with gales very likely in exposure so it might not always feel as mild as the mercury suggests. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that Winter as we would like it is likely anytime soon so I'm afraid we must batten down the hatches for the possibility of more troublesome rainfall and more traditional Winter's weather over the UK over the next few weeks at least and with the models refusing to decrease heights to the South it could be some while before we see a strong surge of cold air from the North that some experts and longer term forecasts suggest.   

Next Update Tuesday January 26th 2016 from 09:00