theweatheroutlook

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Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 January 2016 13:39:23

Hello folks,


 


Here's the week ahead forecast video;


 


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html


 


Here's the written Thoughts;


 



 


Very mild, wet and windy week ahead.


 


Later on today I'll have a three month look-ahead with the JMA model going from February to April. 


 


Thanks to everybody for their support during what has been a very difficult couple of weeks. 


 


EDIT: Here's Sunday's video: What Happens After El Nino (Summer 2016)


 


http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
23 January 2016 13:41:40
Hope your well and really sorry to hear about the loss of your father Gav. Good to see you posting once again.👍
ARTzeman
23 January 2016 13:51:21

Thank you Gavin for the forecast. My thoughts are with you.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
sriram
23 January 2016 14:16:00
Thanks Gavin

Well done on getting back on track on the website through this difficult time and my heart-felt best wishes are for you and your family
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
idj20
23 January 2016 14:28:24

Welcome back, Gavin. It must be hard trying to get back into some kind of routine after your recent loss. Commiserations to you and your family.  

Folkestone Harbour. 
SJV
23 January 2016 14:40:27
Welcome back Gavin. I'll echo the thoughts of those above. Good to see you here and hope you're well in what is a difficult time x
Chichesterweatherfan2
23 January 2016 19:25:40
Every sympathy Gavin....as others have said....good to see you posting.
tallyho_83
23 January 2016 19:52:03
Hi Gavin

Good to see you back! - Well, weather wise -it is like a nightmare scenario and as worse as it get's - I think you said this back in September during your first updates. But who knows?! Things may change. The models never really picked up the cold spell last week - or cooler spell at seasonal temperatures for us in the SW.

Just don't really want snow in spring.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Bertwhistle
23 January 2016 19:55:47

Great to see you on here again Gav; as everybody has said, thoughts are with you at a difficult time.


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2016 10:04:48

^^^^^^


Thanks everyone. That really is very kind. It's been a tough time but we're getting through it. The kindness over everyone has helped a lot. 


Here's today's video update;


What Happens After El Nino (Summer 2015)


 



 


La Nina? Or ENSO Neutral? Wet Summer? Or hot?


 


All very speculative for a Sunday morning.


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
24 January 2016 10:18:28

Cheers Gav


A poor Summer looks the favourite then

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
24 January 2016 10:43:57
Looking likely that we'll have a strong Niña in place by the Autumn, so on that basis a rather poor summer looks the form horse with your analogue of 88 being the favourite. Looking furrier ahead and strong Niña events equates to mild and wet winters ( surprise surprise ) so we could possibly be looking at a record breaking year in terms of rainfall, food for thought.😜
Dougie
24 January 2016 10:50:50

It's good to have you back Gavin, you have my sympathy for what happened.


A good video, it will be interesting to see what transpires. 

Ha'way the lads
Windy Willow
24 January 2016 13:41:52

Thanks Gavin.


 


Glad to see you back!

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
The Beast from the East
24 January 2016 13:50:09
Best wishes and my deepest sympathies
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
24 January 2016 13:57:32
As others have said, good to see you back Gavin and sorry for your loss.
This place wouldn't be the same without you.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Bertwhistle
24 January 2016 14:01:44

Looking likely that we'll have a strong Niña in place by the Autumn, so on that basis a rather poor summer looks the form horse with your analogue of 88 being the favourite. Looking furrier ahead and strong Niña events equates to mild and wet winters ( surprise surprise ) so we could possibly be looking at a record breaking year in terms of rainfall, food for thought.😜

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Hi SC- Gav's report highlights the risk of a poor summer if we go La Nina next; what are the signs for this happening, and- if it doesn't happen until after summer, could we still get a good summer- if the neutral state was long enough (as in 83 and 03)?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
JACKO4EVER
24 January 2016 15:12:11
Thanks Gav, great to see you again and very sorry to hear of your loss.
Super video!
Take care,
Jason
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2016 15:28:54

Thanks guys. You are all do kind! 


I've created a page for Summer 2016 updates and added today's ENSO & Summer Connection video to it with written summary for anybody that can't watch the video;


 


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/summer-2016-forecast.php


 


Proper updates for Summer will begin in March.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
sriram
24 January 2016 18:59:47
FANTASTIC video Gavin - many thanks

Very interesting and informative

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Gusty
24 January 2016 21:56:08

Hey Gavin. Good to see you back but very sorry to read of your sad news. 


Looking forward to Spring and Summer now after another failed winter. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Sharp Green Fox
24 January 2016 22:13:46
Thanks Gavin. Interesting as always. Very sorry for your loss.
schmee
24 January 2016 22:29:34
Thankyou Gavin.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Jonesy
25 January 2016 11:27:41

Thanks Gavin good to see you posting through this very hard time for you, thoughts are with you and your family.

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
doctor snow
25 January 2016 19:16:50
Must be hard for you losing your dad my dad is very ill so i no how hard it most be for you .love your vids best forcaster about cheers 4 your good work

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