In view of the coming storm and heavy rains, the flooding is back on the agenda. Sadly, it is the same locations at most risk. I'd imagine many folks in the prime zones are bracing themselves.

Will it be a storm worthy of the forecasts or will it be an anti-climax?

Fire away

APERGE showing up to 100mm here in Wales. Ground is still saturated

The farmers filed will suffer with heavy downpours. Not nice. 

12z GFS for the first frontal system of the week, which becomes slow moving across the south on Wed:

Already a not inconsiderable amount of rain for many places, and this is missing the detail over high terrain that ARPEGE provides. A convective element in the far south may also be underestimated, again this is evidence in the ARPEGE chart posted by Fothergill.

By the end of the weekend - and the month - the moisture laden tropical maritime airmasses coming from well SW of the UK (those subtropical conveyors again, or atmospheric rivers) have done their nasty work:

I imagine peak totals over high ground would be in excess of 200 mm from this run if it could resolve such things effectively enough.

IMBY (between the numbers just N and NW of the IOW), some 50 to 60 mm looks achievable when accounting for convective underestimation. That'd leave the month just short of 2008 for the 2nd wettest Jan in the past 16 years.

We need a giant barrier to the west of the UK than can be raised at times like this 

...and that may finally arrive in the form of the MetO H:P eventually building. Sadly, the rain and floods will come first.

http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

A couple of flood warnings but over 60 flood alerts in force for England and Wales, though most have been issued earlier than usual and on a precautionary basis as opposed to actual river levels.

Would imagine these numbers to rise throughout tomorrow and Wednesday based on forecast rainfall figures.... hopefully Cumbria and other areas of Northern England which have been hit hard this winter will escape another deluge....  

It does feel like a short lived version of the December event with stationary orographic rain in the same spots (while we have dry and very windy again - just like last time)

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/512/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2016/1/26/59aabc98-4878-426c-b3e3-df9306d5887d.jpg

Some rainfall totals coming in for the last 12 hours.... could be worse, but could be better

46mm so far today.

APERGE 12z showing 100-150mm in some spots over next few days.

Yes- it was covered by BBC- the manager said she had to stay as it was her life/ livelihood but that she was at an end. Awful.

We have a long weekend booked (5th-8th February) in the Lake District at a place called Ambleside. Its looking like plenty of rain will be falling in the 10 days up there. My wife has bought a comfy pair of swede boots today for our long walks.. bless her. I suggested she replaced them with something a little more akin to the conditions up there. .

Over the past 24 hours, much of the model output trended south with the position of the frontal boundary during Wed daytime, but a look at the radar suggests that was a mistake.

The result was a BBC forecast this morning that showed the worst of the rain gone by late morning but spoke of heavy rain being a frequent visitor until the evening.

Already had 10.5 mm to 6am today following 7.7 mm yesterday. Meanwhile not far to my south it has been even wetter, with Hurn reporting 31.6 mm for the 24 hours to 6am today. The high-res models have been in the 20-40 mm range for Tue-Wed combined but the precip from the southwest is looking pretty heavy so Hurn may exceed the upper limit by this evening and could reach 50 mm. After all, the freshly updated Met Office warning for  10:00-18:00 today goes for 10-15 mm generally with 25 mm locally. 

In these parts, what with the lack of elevated terrain to enhance the totals, 50 mm from an event is pretty noteworthy.

The warning says the area of rain will move "southeastwards" across southern England but at the moment it is heading slightly north of east.

True that - the angle of the front seems to be more SW-NE than the near W to E that it was meant to be. So even as it drifts a little S of E, the rain is moving NE along it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1453851000&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=51.73

Signs now of the narrower secondary feature on the radar, which is even more SW-NE in alignment. It's beefed up more some way SW of the UK but thankfully the overall E motion should keep that lot mostly in the Channel.

Not sure about that wedge to the south of Ireland though. A third band coming into view? It could move far N enough to affect southern parts before it clears east.

Seems the models have made a bit of a hash of this.

Rain's finally turned more sporadic here now. The local stream has swollen far enough to begin bursting its banks.

The possible third band of rain has been quasi-stationary in the last two hours so it may just be anomalous propagation (anaprop) i.e. a false signal.

Thoughts in these parts now turn to a rather similar looking event being suggested by a number of models for Saturday, including the possibility of the boundary stalling out and beefing up while right overhead during the following night, due to a potent wave developing along it.

Scope for some fluvial flooding problems.

Shades of Winter 2014 . . .

Is Copnor Road flooded yet?

Noo nowhere near enough rain for that 😄

It really has just been standard January muck with the usual big puddles around blocked drains.. Portsmouth council have been slacking as per usual lol 

Lol - no changes then  I guess Eastern Road would flood first. Phew..... I do not miss those depressing wet/murky days!!