ECM 12z ensemble mean charts are available and show some eastward progression of the low pressure at the end of the run compared with the 00z.  The area of uncertainty has also moved east. There's some evidence of support for modest height rises between Greenland and Iceland.

So, I expect that the ensemble chart will still show the Op to be something of a cold outlier but maybe less so than the 00z.

Beeb/Meto going for much colder next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35424465

Warm air rises.
I can see an undercut from a cold Europe at some stage.
I have noticed plenty of LP systems being pushed NW so far and take this as a potential push from the East as the air gets colder and heavier?.
Maybe I'm just mad and love snow?.lol.

Plenty of interest in the weather at the moment. Don't make personal swipes and comments aimed at others.

Well the Beeb are clearly going with the Euro's it seems looking at the 21:55

Yep, a good forecast from LL , certainly better than I expected

interesting... There must be a good deal of support from MOGREPS for the MetO to be advising the forecasting this (via the BBC), especially as this seems to have appeared very recently in the model outlook.... Although far from infallible, one BBC forecast like this (having its source from the MetO who have access to far more info and have more collective experience than can be mustered on the forums) is worth 10 GFS operationals in my view.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_69_preciptype.png?cb

Certainly looks to be a lot more in the way of wintry showers than the Beeb are suggesting

Note the date in those posts, it's February 1998!

Internet forums didn't exist in 1989 so I doubt it was from then.

Sorry Bill you were wrong mate at least about the date, although I do take your point about Paul referring to numerous highs rather than a single one.

However, my original point is correct, the Bartlett High was christened during the strong ElNino winter of 1998.

Andy

Off-topic but the uk.sci.weather Usenet group pre-dates Internet forums by quite a while I believe and was certainly on the go in 1998.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016012712/JN216-21.GIF?27-12

JMA is trying very hard to follow ECM

120 Fax shows the Northerly trying to develop on Monday

True, but theres a lot of energy tied up with this LP.  It would probably drg cold air over the Uk within 24 hrs of this chart.  Looks a decent start to something.

Whats key is to see the Euro High being smashed and not strong enough to reect the cold air and force it towards scandi.

you didn't see the 21:55 then

ECM and UKMO are virtually in agreement

Ok, fingers crossed then that this develops over the coming days...

but bear in mind the TV forecasts always exaggerate a weather switch based on current conditions, which are very mild. 

Is it me or are they trending colder

UKMO T120:

T144:

Temperatures returning to average, but nothing cold showing,

The models are moving to towards a concensus around day 6/7, the GFS is a little more amplified than previous runs and the ECM shows a briefer less penetrating northerly. 

Beyond that the GFS remains keen on a strong PV to the NW.

ECM showing a renewed plunge at 240:

ECM has the 'yuck - can I sell up and move to the sun' factor in spades for people like me in the south. For those farther north there is plenty of interest if snow is your thing. 

Even GEFS is showing a cooling trend in the longer term: