Thats an absolute stunner to end with from the ECM. The run as a whole is a little unlucky as it could be much colder. But a good run all in all and a much earlier return to cold than many expected.

Regarding the UK, I agree

The N will be seeing some stormy weather before then and the overall trends are good.

I know Brian is looking forward for summer sun now but all said and done, it is still only 28th January and winter can still deliver in the UK!

The mid Feb cold spell is well identified in the UK and it's too early to rule out this year. However, next week looks very 'interesting' for the northern half of the country but in the south things appear too marginal to me, although transient snow is possible. It's not reverse psychology, just an objective view. 

It's the correct view. A zonal pattern with pm interludes is generally pretty crap for the south although a few frosts are welcome. Getting closer to writing winter off as a "bust" for this location

Definitely seems to be a cooling trend this morning and even GFS has now caught on - interestingly at this stage it seems quite similar to last year where we had a cold spell but it just wasn't cold enough for low lying southern UK (snow wise.)  GFS ensembles on the way down for the first time in a while and the strat event still on and no change in severity - maybe over the next week we might start to see some deep FI eye candy. But as always with strat events very hard to predict the outcome if any at all and until it is occurring it always has to be treated like any other FI weather event.

Either way certainly a much chillier prospect than we have seen the last few days

Er that's what I said, the date of the Bartlett post is February 1998, I don't think any Internet forum existed in 1989.

Bill,s original post said Paul Bartlett christened the Bartlett High in the mild winter of 1989, he didn't, it was February 1998.

Andy

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A strengthening WSW flow will develop across the UK today and tonight in association with a very deep depression crossing NE to the NW of Scotland and pushing troughs East and South down across the UK later today and tonight becoming slow moving across the South tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles starts the day at around 2000ft with some snowfall in the form of frequent showers across the North. The free\ing level then rises towards 7000ft across the South of England tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow continuing to dominate the weather across the UK over the next few weeks as it remains strong throughout and blowing West to East across the UK for much of the time with a period of the second week when the flow troughs across the UK with the main portion of the flow South of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled and often windy weather persisting across many parts of the UK over the next few weeks. In the first week milder spells alternating with some short colder polar maritime blasts of showery air intervene with the milder rainy periods. Then in the second week the theme moves towards longer colder periods with showers or rain or snow in places especially over the North with shorter mild, wet and windy periods with gales. Amounts of dry weather remain restricted to weak and fast moving ridges of High pressure moving across the UK from the SW.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today shows unsettled and very windy weather too with rain at times under the same synoptic pattern as the Operational Run. In the second week the Control Run does indicate that Low pressure areas take more of a direct hit across the UK moving in an ESE direction and digging cold air down across the UK with the rain and showers turning to snow at times in places with some night frosts at times where skies clear and the winds fall briefly lighter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a strong and almost universal commitment to High pressure well to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with the UK lying under a NW flow of varying degrees with gales in places and spells of rain and more importantly colder air from more Northern latitudes than of late bringing the risk of some wintry weather across the UK at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows colder weather developing next week after a weekend of gales and heavy rain in places especially over Sunday and Monday. The colder weather when it arrives looks like bringing a short spell at least of wintry showers to all areas towards the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a plethora of troughs crossing the UK over the 5 day period. Various cold fronts at the start of the weekend bring rain and then colder conditions with showers turning wintry with warm fronts then struggling NE over Southern Britain with rain and snow on the leading edge late in the weekend with severe gales returning at the start of next week with a continues mix of rain and showers with snow on Northern hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning continues to project very unsettled conditions throughout the next 10 days with gales and rain at times. A drier and quieter interlude is indicated towards the middle of next week when it turns colder with some wintry showers and frost before a potentially stormy and wet period develops later next week as Low pressure parks directly over the UK on it's journey slowly East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows continuing wet and windy weather at times and although some milder spells remain next week looks generally somewhat colder with a drier interlude possible towards midweek before wet and windy conditions return later next week as Low pressure moves East across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows very windy weather for the next 4-5 days with gales and heavy rain at times especially across the North and West where some colder interludes with wintry showers look possible. Towards the middle of next week this model too shows a quieter interlude with dry, bright conditions for 24-48hrs with frost at night as High pressure moves East close to the South before things go back downhill again late next week and through the second weekend with rain and gales moving East in association with Low pressure. With colder air entrained across the UK late next week some snowfall is expected from this set-up especially over the North but perhaps the South too by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today continues to deepen the trough likely to lie across the UK in 10 days time. The main of the pack would indicate a variety of options of Low pressure likely over the UK with the Jet stream a long way South with a mixture of rain and showers likely almost anywhere with some cold weather and snow over the hills too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning show continues unsettled weather with the risk of somewhat colder conditions later shown across the models today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.8 pts to 67.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.4 pts to 48.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Though the model output this morning is not without interest for all weather lovers the main emphasis remains on the unsettled and often windy nature of our Winter weather over anything else shown again today. In the upcoming days the weather will likely be making headlines due to the strength of the wind and rainfall amounts again likely to affect the sensitive areas of the NW yet again tomorrow. Temperatures will be average to mild especially over the South through the second half of the weekend as another warm sector moves NE. Through next week the main message is that there will be further rain and showers early in the week before most output shows at least a short spell of quieter conditions around midweek when some night frosts are likely. Then later in the week renewed Low pressure from off the Atlantic looks like moving into the UK on more Southerly latitudes than recently as the Jet stream moves further South than currently. As well as the inevitable strong winds and rain that system will bring colder air will also be present in close proximity or over the UK and some of that rain may well turn to snow, more likely over the North but maybe the South too but it all looks a knife edge situation at this range and to bring anything noteworthy in terms of wintry weather the models will have to amplify the pattern more than is currently shown as I feel it could all be swept away by a maintained strong and volatile Jet flow. Nevertheless, it does hold something for cold weather fans to hang their hats on while the rest of folks remain more concerned on the amounts of rain and strong winds still to come over the next week. Leaving all else aside this morning there remains little meaningful High pressure shown within the outputs this morning maintaining this Winter as being another one of those most Low pressure based Winters when weather pattern variances are rare and short-lived.      

Next Update Friday January 29th 2016 from 09:00

I was posting to bulletin boards in 1993.

This calls for a new thread: weather in the early days of the Internet. I was checking various weather sites already in 1995 and remarkably some still exist almost unchanged. The 10-dayers from wxmaps for example.

For anyone interested in UK weather the output shows a fascinating period of weather coming up although the downside in the short term could be more flooding and structural damage.

I think ''wild'' sums up the weather in the North for the next 5 days and then the models are indicating a messy transition to cold moving South by next weekend. I expect the weather warnings to go amber in some areas north of the midlands.

In the latter parts of both ECM and GFS FI, a significant cold snap can now not be ruled out - however, I would be much happier if the ECM showed a strengthening greenie high rather than a weakening one at 240 hrs - plenty of time for that  to change. 

Sometimes in the South we just have to look north and wait for our turn!

Usenet predates the WWW by some margin: it was set up in 1980.

Indeed but I didn't have Internet connectivity until the early 90s.

GEFS6z look fairly mixed:

 -10C 850 on a South westerly; never seen that before.

Storm Gertrude will keep us all watching ...... 

The 12z GFS sticking to its guns for a snow event for Midlands-northwards on Saturday pm.

Yesterday's 18z (12.00 Saturday)

:

Today's 0z (12.00 Saturday)

Today's 6z (18.00 Saturday - snow intensifies as the day progresses)

Today's 12z (again, 18.00 Saturday)

I know it's marginal and the MO has been meandering on a 'will it/won't it' path the last few days but, as we get closer, the prospect of snow falling has actually increased. We're only 48 hours or so away and the general pattern is very consistent.

With hardly any discussion on here, I think some people might be caught unawares.

UKMO backs off its northerly. just a one day wonder. Well done GFS. ECM to follow probably

the pattern doesn't look like changing for another few weeks. Perhaps we are reaching the time to call it a day on another awful winter

Why don't we have a yawning Icon. Very annoying.

Thinking about it, how would you do a yawning icon.

Yes very tedious output unless you are on a Scottish mountain or like a bit of sleet in the heavier cloudbursts. 

Very poor upstream pattern on the GFS out to day 8. 

Not sure we'll see snow settle at low level, especially as it'll be showery in nature.   But wintry showers have been forecast to slow level across N England and N Wales on Saturday.

FI is interesting, but it always is at that range

we are like donkeys chasing the carrot on a string