12z CMC also in the 'no way jose' bracket. ECM will be interesting tonight.

if only your pattern would change 

Sorry Beast but I disagree. Charts like the one below haven't been at all typical of this winter thus far, so this in itself would be something of a change from much of the season to date:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

Also, we should remember this is the same GFS that initially forecast the end of the last cold spell to happen almost a week too early, as I mentioned to Gandalf earlier. As for ECM, I think it would be best if we simply wait another couple of hours for the 12z op to come out and see whether or not it alters it's view of likely developments from what it showed in the 00z

Link? Map? Description? Analysis? Explanation?

Well done GFS for what?  Why are you assumng it will turn out to be correct just because UKMO is more similar at t+144, and before the ECM comes out, let alone what the models bring over the next couple of days.

GFS day 8:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

I see shallow highs over the Pole and over Greenland, with the Atlantic low extending as far south as Spain.

Certainly not great for UK cold, but I can't for the life of me see why it's "very poor".

Are you, therefore, assuming that it won't be more correct?

Oh dear Shropshire, oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. That little sad face reminds me of you.

Anyway, good to see low pressure to the south of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2341.gif

Well if that's the best the NWP has to offer, the possibility of a low to the South, at very nearly day 10, then it's pretty desperate IMO.

Most snow rows I've seen for a while the GEFS are sniffing something!

We don't know what the best is that the NWP has to offer, because the ECM for one isn't out yet for those of us who look at the NWP output before posting.

Try taking a look at that GFS chart you've dismissed. It's not offering the possibility of a low to the south. It's genuinely showing a deep low centered on Biscay.

This is what used to confuse me when I first came on here, when you were posting before your bans. I'd look at your instant comments, then wasted ages trawling the output to try in vain to find what you'd signalled, because, just like in this incarnation, there was never, ever a link or an explanation.

ECM12z 168:

Interesting jet profile

That,s a bit more wintry.

Not so long ago, even people who are not called Shropshire were posting some security about 10 days of zonality. Is the current outlook still pivoting around zonality, but cold zonality? Or is it a reflection of the fact that even high-energy W-E flows can be unexpectedly disrupted? I mean, I really don't know; but those who commented sounded as if they did.

That's this morning's European op run I think. 12z is rolling out now.

No, I was just suggesting  it's too early make a call that GFS has 'got it right'.  

Most of the model output is suggesting a relatively mobile outlook across NW Europe. If anything this evening's trend has been to dilute next week's cold incursion and possibly switch the focus to Buchan's 7- 14 Feb period. 

Was 'not so long ago' about ten days ago by any chance? 😉

A form of 'cool' zonal still looks the likely set-up going into the next ten days, especially given ECM has unsurprisingly eased away from it's dalliance with something more wintry longer term this evening (with respect lowland Britain of course).

12pm temps IMBY GFS

11c  6c  6c  12c  9c  7c  7c 6c  7c  6c 3c  5c  6c  6c 8c 7c

Chilly enough

The one consistent thing about the ECM op runs at the moment is that they all seem to want to sink the jet gradually south during next week, compared to where it has been for much of the winter. This evening's ECM 12z maintains that theme, even if it is more progressive than this morning's run.

This ties in with the Beebs week ahead forecast, too. Must be decent agreement behind the scenes too  A good sign if nothing else!

ECM at 216. Yuk!

(And I am referring to the conditions on the ground, not the synoptics, which are at least fairly interesting)

Thank you. Your second paragraph was informative.