Thanks Kev, of course most of these records concern mildness & rainfall. It will would be foolish to claim that what's happening is natural variation.

Not any more foolish that it is to claim that such records are the result of a supposedly irreversable change which allegedly occured in our climate circa 1988.

Or are you still trying to peddle that hogwash as a fact, Ian?

Well the figures are there for all to see David, I will review my forecast at the end of the winter and we will see where 2015/16 sits in the pantheon of phenomenal winters over the last 28 years.

I suppose you'll include 1990/91, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2009/10, December 2010 plus the cold end to the 2012/13 winter to name a few in your review? Yeah right.

Sorry Ian, but IMHO you simply can't claim to be a serious and credible weather forecaster while you continue with this mantra. 28 years is nowt, repeat nowt in climatological terms. Others have been telling you this for years yet still you continue to peddle this nonsensical agenda.

winters since 1988 have become so much milder,you only need to look at the cet for each month to confirm that stat,bar the odd exception ,:(

Point taken, but at the same time let me point out a couple of things.

Ian predicted when he was posting on this forum some years ago that we would never again get a prolonged period of northern blocking in the winter, and that we would never again get a month which recorded a CET of less than 3C. He cited so-called "modern winter" synoptics as the basis for these predictions.

The reality is that both of those predictions have been proven to be wrong at different times in the recent past, not least by the 2009/10 winter, December 2010 and the coldish end to the 2012/13 winter. The prediction Ian made about there never again being a month which returned a CET of less than 3C was blown out of the water by both Dec 2010 (CET was -0.7, making it the first sub-zero CET month since 1986) and by March 2013, which I think produced a CET of 2.7 although it was technically a spring month.

I rest my case.

Some good points but I think there is some merit to that 'modern winter' theory. Intense cold and/or snowy spells during the winter months have become much less frequent over the last two or three decades or so. Of course, there will always be the odd exception (such as 09/10 etc) but it does seem now that winters have become very 'samey' since the late 90s at least.

Is it anything new or unprecedented though? That is the issue here. I would submit that it isn't.

As far as I know, the UK experienced a fair number of mild, even very mild, winters in the period between the two world wars which were similar in nature to many recent mild ones. But things changed again somewhat during the 1940's.

I would be pretty sure (though not certain) that it would be unprecedented. I am just going by historical accounts of winter events here in Ireland of course, but we do in the main share the same climate as the UK (especially N & W UK regions). Even during the so called mild period during the 1930s & 1940s etc, there was, interspersed, some exceptional snowy and cold events  that I could not even comprehend happening today with the same vigour. Something does seem amiss lately, which I own is a subjective view but it is a view I stand by.

Here's a couple of stats which cannot be disputed:

1. The record for the mildest CET winter is still held by the 1868-69 winter; that's nearly 150 years ago.


2. January 1916 and January 1921, from what I've read in the past, were both exceptionally mild, snowless and frost-free. That was two such Januarys in the space of 6 years.


3. According to an article I saw on here several years ago, some people were wondering back in the 1930's whether mild winters were here to stay. They got their answer not that many years later!

15 year running 500 hPa geopotential anomaly since 1981 and to 2014 for the winter season.  Base: 1981-2010. Something has undeniably changed, and not for the better.

I'm lost. It shows lower heights over Greenland and the opposite over the continent for the earlier years - i.e a typical UK winter set up (i.e westerly winds)? Unless I'm reading it wrong. Pretty bog standard stuff really.

The incidence of mild winter has clearly increased - but if people removed the rose-tinted specs they'd realise that our winters have always been crap for snow, only occasional winters like 87 and 79 buck the trend - and even after those winters many places will have gone a couple of winters if not longer without anything of note.

It shows that heights are warming over the Arctic, leading to a slacker thermal gradient over the Atlantic.

And are the latest charts 'typical'? I don't think so.

What is typical then? Id have thought it was normal for the Uk to have long periods of Atlantic dominated weather pattens, much more so then say a long period of more cold blocked type pattens.

Wi live on the edge a Ocean. The Atlantic must of been our main source of weather over all for a very long time.

I suggest you have a look at the CET figures from prior to 1988 and then afterwards. The difference is quite startling.

Doesn't negate the fact that the UK was never guaranteed a cold winter year on year regardless. People need to accept this. 

"At my waking, I found the tops of the houses covered with snow, which is a rare sight, that I have not seen these three years."

Samuel Pepys from November 1662.

Yes I don't think anybody disputes that there have been mild winters and phases of mild winters before. But there has been nothing like the +ve temp anomalies that the last 28 years have seen, over such a period since the dataset began.

What about the CET of -0.7 we recorded in December 2010, Ian? IIRC, you seemed to be almost convinced when you were on this forum previously that we'd never again get a winter month that recorded a CET of less than 3C, let alone a sub-zero one! And then we had a spring month (March 2013) which produced a final CET of under 3.

It was being widely debated on weather forums 10-12 years ago if Northern blocking could ever be achieved in the winter months again - the answer was yes it could, though the period around the turn of the decade looks like it was down primarily to solar minima.

So yes we can still get cold, but the trend is there for all to see. The NAO, despite factors that 'should' drive it negative often refuses to go that way, incidences of blocking to the NW in winter are a good deal less than they used to be.

Maybe so, but such instances of major cold & HLB have not become extinct which is pretty much what you were attempting to imply on this forum before your exile from TWO. Rarer yes, but as I say, not extinct.

You must accept Ian that at least one or two parts of your beloved "modern winter" theory you were putting forward on this forum up to and including 2008, have not turned out as you thought would happen.

Winter 2014-15 had a higher nett +ve NAO than winter 2006-07 but was 2C cooler, infact it had a higher nett +ve NAO than the winter of 2013-14

March 1957 had a nett -ve NAO and was the mildest March on record.

December 1988 had a nett -ve NAO and was very mild, whilst December 2001 had a nett +ve NAO and was nearly 4C colder.

500mb nett anomaly chart from January 2008 to January 2011

Pressure much higher than normal over the Davis Straits and Russia and lower than average over the Biscay area

Summers 2007-12: no wonder they were crap!

Compare that to the Springs

And the winters of 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11

500hp anomaly for winters of the 1990s

Surface pressure anomaly of the winters of the 1990s

Winters of the 2000s: note the higher pressure anomaly to the WSW of the British Isles

Surface pressure anomaly of the winters of the 2000s

Interesting that the mid Atlantic trough anomaly of the winters of the 1990s was replaced with a ridge anomaly for the winters of the 2000s.

The northern hemisphere of the winters of the 1990s. 500hpa anomalies

Interestingly look at the winters of the 2000s.

Perhaps this discussion should be in the Climate Forum as well - or instead.

I've just done an analysis of the CET monthly records - as many will know it stretches back 357 years.

Ranking the years from warmest to coolest -

In the bottom 100 years only one year of the last 25 appears (2010)

In the bottom 250 years just four of the last 24 years appear (1991, 1993 1996, 2010)

In the top 100 years are 21 of the last 25

In the top decile (i.e. the top 36 years) there are 16 of the last 25 years

So what s the reason behind this sudden warming since 1988,those stats are amazing !