edit:

Though it was 8 days out lol not 5

already liking some of the members this evening:

Bog standard zonal mush with wind and rain the story of the day 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016020218/graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016020218/graphe7_1000_306_141___Londres.gif 

Pretty horrific ECM this morning, with some interest in the GFS for the North. But the main theme is wind and rain.

Also the METO have changed their mid-month wording to 'perhaps' settled at first, clearly there must be huge doubts about that now with the ongoing progressive NWP.

I suppose this could be described as zonal

Yes I think so Lazy, the GFS ensembles have plenty of members similar to the ECM, I think the main theme is that the METO mid month 'colder and settled' is coming under real pressure this morning.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850birmingham0.png?cb

Colder options still showing their hand

Around the 15th is the period of opportunity, with a UK based high setting-up around 20% chance and something at higher latitudes around 5% at best but finite.
I can see where Ian is coming from though with the majority option AT THIS STAGE continuing the mobility.

In the meantime, the threat level still exists for a few severe wind events for many parts of the UK next 7 days.

Yes I think severe wind events are probably going to be the story next week - after that as you mention we could see something chillier and a few GFS members going for that but not a lot.  I notice too looks to be possibly a secondary strat event showing up in GFS deep FI this morning, I have to say I think the chances of Easter snow are probably more likely than February snow.  That is if you take this morning's output as gospel of course, something could well emerge by the end of the week for the latter half of February time will tell.

The Strat forecast still on track:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

GFS is spewing out a load of rubbish at the moment - should come with a health warning - take its output with a large pinch of salt!

Why? Do you know something that the rest of us mere mortals don't?

just about sums things up imo. With many of the GFS ens mirroring those of ECM then I see little in the way of colder and settled conditions in the offing. Some of these storms look pretty worrying too.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold NW flow across the UK will weaken through the day as a ridge of High pressure crosses East over the UK tonight followed by a couple of warm frontal systems tomorrow and a mild West then SW flow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft to begin the day rising later today and tonight as milder uppers spread in from the SW taking the freezing level up to 5500ft across the North and as high as 7000ft across the South tomorrow. Some snowfall is likely over the mountains of the North tonight before turning to rain later tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will ridge across the UK today before settling into a strong and vigorous flow across the South of Britain and France later this weekend and next week. This continues for some considerable time before the flow inches a little further North later, but every bit as strong and still blowing across the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very volatile period of weather to come over the UK as active Low pressure areas crossing the heart of the UK deliver rain, gales and potentially stormy conditions on occasion through the next 10 days with temperatures up and down like a yo-yo as each system passes. The end of the run sees us returning to a point where we have been all Winter with Low pressure to the North and High to the South with mild SW winds and further rain at times especially by then across the North and West. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows a similar route with strong winds and rain featuring regularly over the next week to 10 days with some snow on Northern hills at times as colder air tucks in at times from the NW. The pattern changes are small towards the end of the run but do feature a hint of some colder air for a time before milder Westerly winds return at the end of the period in Westerly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters were not available at the time of issue of my report today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows deep Low pressure moving in across Scotland over the weekend and start to next week with strong to gale Westerly winds and squally and thundery showers embracing all Western and Southern coasts and hills, perhaps wintry on the hills and prolonged too all this following a spell of mild and eventually wet conditions leading up to the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show the unsettled theme continuing as further troughs, both warm and cold cross the UK from the West bringing rain at times and strong winds at times especially over the weekend. With deep Low pressure moving in pressure is shown to fall quickly with more complex troughing over the UK maintaining the very unsettled and windy theme continuing well into next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a wet and very windy week to come with gales and heavy rain at times from the weekend across all areas with gale or severe gales at times for all. In between the rain bands colder showery conditions will replace the rain falling as snow over the hills at times. Then towards the end of next week a cold Northerly flow develops as pressure builds North over the Atlantic and the previous deep UK based Low pressure systems move away to the East. This would bring snow showers South to all areas with the return of frost at nights under clear skies in shelter of the still brisk north wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also continues the windy and very volatile Low pressure based pattern with spells of heavy rain and showers crossing the UK on regular occasions over the next week with temperatures above average at first, falling somewhat later as colder air mixes into the airflows across the UK with some wintry showers over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today looks very windy and wet at times across all areas of the UK as Low pressure moves quickly East across Northern Britain with a strong to gale Westerly flow on it's Southern flank. The brighter air behind rain-bands will bring showers which could turn wintry over the hills at times. Later in the run signs of pressure rising again to the South and a less vigorous Westerly flow becoming more established looks possible from this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates that things may be reverting to a less vigorous Westerly flow across the UK in 10 days time as the Jet stream begins to feed further North towards the UK as High pressure builds to the South and Low pressure displaces further to the NW too off Southern Greenland and Iceland with High pressure near the Azores and Iberia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to indicate total Atlantic domination over the period today perhaps weakening in volatility later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 88.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.3 pts to 66.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  No real changes in the overall message from the models this morning though if I had to be picky I would say that they look overall somewhat less concerning that those that were shown yesterday and also now indicate a trend towards a less vigorous pattern developing later as pressure rises over the UK somewhat. For the here and now today's cold theme changes to mild tomorrow and Friday with mild SW winds bringing rain and drizzle in from the West tomorrow and Friday. Then through the weekend things turn distinctly unsettled and windy with gale or severe gales at times and heavy rain or showers affecting all areas. Things do turn colder with time too with showers turning wintry at times over the hills next week. The pattern then remains locked in this very windy and at times cool phase with boisterous showers which could fall as anything at times with some longer periods of rain too almost anywhere. Then as we move out of the first week and into the second week things do seem to change slightly towards less stormy and a more changeable and standard pattern as High pressure seems themed again back towards the South of the UK with Low pressure further North. While some rain still seems likely for all then too the North and West look like seeing more of this by then while the South and East see somewhat drier weather at times. Temperatures look like returning towards nearer average or a little above in the South if the High pressure to the South positions itself favourably enough. Finally today there looks very little evidence of more settled or colder weather across the UK turning up on a widespread or long lasting period over the coming two weeks, that is if this morning's output is to be used in evidence so for those wanting change in this locked Winter pattern the hunt for cold continues today.      

Next Update Thursday February 4th 2016 from 09:00

Everything will change following the major Strat warming - I just don't think the models currently have a handle on that. Yes, I know some say the models take it into account, but I don't see how they could do so effectively, since the results are invariably unpredictable.

Its still a good 10 days before the effect, if any, of this event taken place. However it does seem to be a consistent theme being modelled by Berlin.  I think you mentioned in an earlier post that its still a little early for most models to pick this up but we should start to see some changes  early next week.

The interesting point is that all those forecasters that tend to get mocked and derived for posting or publishing longer range forecast, have been eluding to this event for months and also more or less to the period when it would be likely to take place.  Regardless of what we think it is still very dam cold up there and if it really does push all that cold air in our direction it could turn out very interesting indeed.  

One can can but only hope.

But not enough to prevent you from making a firm prediction over the last few days?

I can't see anything to suggest a cold period beyond a transient day or two and certainly not a settled spell. I think you are clutching at an ever shortening straw and surely the METO will be revising their outlook later today or tomorrow.

I think it's fair to say that comment applies to the situation 100% of the time; I'm not sure that events in the stratosphere are any different really, just much less common.

In essence what we have is variations on a theme of a mobile pattern at the moment with the jet a little further south.

Only the MetO themselves will decide that, Ian, and not any of us here.

Predicting general global weather patterns are not to difficult for the experts.  Dissecting this information and their effects even continentally is nigh on impossible let alone the effects on our little bit of the planet.  

Is what is being shown by Berlin a SSW event in your estimation, Maunder? Or just a stratospheric warming?

I know it's only one run, is marginal and won't happen, but pretty suprisied no one has commented in the op snowmaggedon forecast! Shows that even without perfect Synoptics snow is possible. Having said that reality might prove otherwise!