Just not enough 'further south'

So erm I'm wondering.. What happened to this apparent snow event Saturday that the metoffice & BBC were apparently saying yesterday would effect us even as far south as southern England??

For the record here I don't recall seeing such a forecast, but others on here did, and they decided to give Shropshire some unworthy stick for saying the opposit because the models didn't show it.  

Normally an SSW event can be confirmed around 1 week before its effects are felt, though they can be forecast a few weeks beforehand.  It really depends on how strong the waves are moving west when pushing against the easterlies in the stratosphere.  As we all know the western push can't go further east when it hits the eastern winds so it forces these eastern winds down into the troposphere, which is were our weather lives.

Its at this point where the unknowns are, as at this precise moment no one knows how strong this western influence is going to be (albeit some believe the el Nino will make it quite potent).  What we do know is that a potential SSW is about to take place and its effects will become more apparent in the next few days.

Maybe just a passing few cooler days or a change to something much more interesting, we at this point just don't know.  Anyone saying something to the contrary is plucking at straws for what ever they favour is.

I am afraid I have no idea. All I can see is that the warming is major as shown by forecast. Naturally, it does not guarantee that any pattern change will bring sustained cold to our shores, but I am pretty sure it will mean a pattern change of some kind. I think it will end the relentless zonality down the line, but if we end up on the "wrong" side of the result, we could end up warm and dry instead of cold and dry. So long as it is dry and settled, I won't be complaining.

Thanks Phil.

Let's hope that, assuming the potential SSW takes place as forecast, that it is of some benefit to us in terms of changing the pattern. A change to colder & mostly dry would suit me to be honest after such a wet winter. We need a dry spell more than we need a whole lot of snow, although I know that no doubt others will disagree!

Hi David.  One thing is for sure, if it does take place it will have an effect on our weather.  It always does (its the does bit which is uncertain) however historically it tends to lead to a cooler if not much colder weather pattern.

Indeed, it is curious. Only last week I recall when the UKMO, and to and extent, the ECM op showed another potential cold snap for around this period, the GFS was once again slammed 'en masse' for not really buying into it, by keeping the pattern more or less zonal. It never ceases to amaze me how selective peoples' thought processes can be.

Back on topic, the EPS run this morn seems to have a brief opportunity for a weak ridge to develop over the NE Atlantic around the 14th, but the main theme remains zonal right out to day 15 at least.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016020306/gens-0-1-192.png

GFS control is better

It is much better and shows that a block in a favourable location is not impossible

Having just read the MetO's update for the latter part of Feb on their website and noted the change in forecast from yesterday, I can only conclude that at the moment, the signals they are seeing for late February from their available information are somewhat mixed to say the least. There has at times been a fair bit of flip-flopping in their 16-30 day updates of late, not least over the past few days.

My suspicion is that this much anticipated stratospheric warming (possibly sudden) may be causing the models some issues. It seems to be that as things stand, things are rather finely balanced between a continuation of the unsettled spell and a change to something drier & colder later this month. Given that we're only three days into February, forecasts for late February are in deepest FI territory just now.

Spot on and if anyone on here is taking the 2nd half of the forecast as gospel..........................ROFL more fool you . It will change and fluctuate ............people know that or should do

Rather shambolic end to another winter. Now everything depends on the SSW to radically alter the background signals. This is it. All our money on the Black!

They can only work with what they see.  Their own reasoning with regards to the effect of SSW, is to work its effects into the forecast no earlier than one week before its predicted.  So its no surprise to see the current extended outlook as it is, that is sensible forecasting of the facts as they see them right now.  However if this current SSW is to take place as we currently believe then expect to see some changes to the Met outlook from Monday, if not then you can assume with some fair confidence that it won't have any effect at all.

I think its a very good sensible call from the Meto, but don't forget it also gives them a lot of room to manoeuvre to a cold option based on the unpredictable effects of this possible event.

I have contacted Fergie in the hope of some explanation as to why the trend toward an MJO driven change has suddenly vanished from GloSea5. It has been by far the most dependable signal from the likes of ECM and UKM with respect to shaking things up late in the month and going into March.

As for the strat. I'm not as surprised, but given that it has been looking better on this morning's GFS output with the vortex getting locked in over Siberia rather than drifting back toward Greenland, it still seems rather strange. Bear in mind this is from a scientific perspective as I'm not keen on late Feb/early March cold, unless it's exceptional which is always a long shot.

Possible explanations include the North Atlantic Cold Pool driving stronger zonal tendencies. Hopefully he will be able to shed at least a little light on things - I know there's a lot of red tape or whatever.

In the meantime, plenty to be keeping an eye on...

This higher-resolution ICON model hints that Saturday's secondary low might extend further south than the 'big three' have been suggesting. 

ARPEGE went with that with yesterday's 12z effort and this was the outcome across the UK:

...however it has since moved back north. Long story short, the track is uncertain enough that the peak inland wind gust strength could be anything between 50 and 70 mph and the location anywhere from S. Scotland to S. England!

Generally, the tracks further south produce the strongest winds, as the feature remains separate from the parent low for longer; as it merges, the movement toward the core of the trough lessens the pressure gradient.

The bigger story still looks likely to be the Sun-Tue storm, though. GFS and NAVGEM are the only models I can find that don't develop a very deep low S. of Greenland by early Sunday which is the prerequisite for a heavy impact on the UK - though the UKMO 00z suggests that it could peak just before reaching us, which I expect would keep the peak wind gusts out of the 70-80 mph range for all but a few particularly exposed locations.

'Hold on to your hats' may not cut it...!

Please! I will be so very happy if Shropshire is proved to be 100% wrong. I still have confidence in the SSW to deliver. We shall see!

The output over the last 48hrs continues to improve massively.

Lots of wintry potential, even for southerners - we are all in this together. Dont be put off by the rainfall charts. Indeed - a wet cold scenario is a great one to have in this setup. Those LPs could dart anywhere, with cold air to the north, and a favourable wind directions we could be in for snowy spells in short notice once Saturday is out of the way- quite literally anywhere.

Great to see.

12z Control looks like fun for the South with a double whammy on Mon then Wed:

Model Output GFS and UKMO here we come...

😆😀💦🌌😃.

NE USA to Mid SE USA PV Low, snow heavy on the north end, with bursts of heavy rain and SSW winds, Cyclonic NNE of New York, East Canada etc.  PV Low from between Newfoundland and SW Greenland is to affect North and mid to Central NE Atlantic, NE USA system catches on its SW section and cross Newfoundland NW Atlantic and then by Saturday evening and night to Sunday Midday crosses UK bringing cold weather back across.

By then Windy South with heavy blustery showers, chance in Scotland and NE and Central UK for some snowfall from the secondary Low, the Low that is ahead of it cross North Atlantic in front across Iceland and then across NE N Mid Atlantic and Arctic sea to our north.

Monday the NW Atlantic Low merges with the two ahead SE and NE of it merged but UK turns very cold in NW and North on Sunday and during Monday7th and 8th February 2016, Cold West NW flow for whole UK but just near average temps in South and SW UK on Sunday, with a North South divide on Monday, this colder weather affects Central UK on Monday as well.

Large pool of cold Maritime polar mixed with to the south some tropical polar maritime airmass south of maritime polar.

On Tuesday drier in the NW and South, with Low Pressure areas in Mid And far North Atlantic, and over to Central and North NE UK with still cold weather Cyclonic weather and wintry showers over UK, it looks like further Cold Low Pressure withNNW airflow by Wednesday is likely.

😀😏🌧☁️😄😟❄️☔️💫⚡️🌫.

Sunday through to next Friday looks as though not only will it feel cold but will actually be cold