Thanks Gandalf, absolutely incredible - the modern era began, as I defined it from 1988.

Hi Peter,

Since this thread, as far as I can tell, is looking at this topic mostly from a weather point of view, I personally am inclined to leave this thread in the weather forum where it has been since Kevin opened it. That said, if you or anyone else want to start a similar thread in the climate forum where it can be discussed more from a climate angle, I have no objection to that.

The stats clearly show a big warming trend and its also clear that autumns and winters are the two seasons showing the biggest temperature increases.Despite the noteable warming we still get piss poor after piss poor summers when if summers followed this warming trend by as much we would have had many more like `76.`95,2003 hence the uk is stuck in an eternal autumn.Id like to know why autumns and winters have become so much warmer yet summers are so poor! Almost every year we see summer charts through the winter and winter charts through the summer. Last year.2015,was a classic example.around late April/early may we saw charts appear that should be for winter and the pattern remained locked in for the whole summer period, until the very end of October, when they did a complete flip and pressure patterns showed a summer set up.and have done to date,hence this winter is on course to be the warmest on record.Everything is `arse about face` There must be a reason and a cause for this to happen year after year?? Before someone screams winter 2009/10 yes there have been the odd exception but note there were mild winters during the little age.

Why are people looking at it just through the prism of temperatures? 

It's more than that, rainfall and sunshine (or the lack of) extremes are being measured as well. 

In my opinion it's a very clear marker of the gathering effects of increasing greenhouse gases, i.e. climate change.  Some will argue that there's some natural variability as well but, as you say, the stats are pretty stark.

Indeed - and I ran a thread in the Climate Forum about rainfall changes - more wetter and drier records than you would expect.  I would be interested in your thoughts as a resident expert.

I think I'll run a thread in the Climate Forum and explore seasonal changes as well.  For now, a very quick check reveals:

Looking at the last 25 years, 1991-2015, again:

With 357 years in the record, the 25 year period is about 7%, so across any one decile there should be on average 2 or 3 years (2.5)

Bottom decile (lowest 36)    0

9th decile (next 36)             0

8th decile                           1  (2011, in 264th place out of 357)

7th decile                           1  (1993, in 241st place out of 357)

Another four years fall into the bottom half, meaning 21 years fall into the top half., i.e. warmest half.  3 years sit in the top 5 (1995, 2003, 2006).  On average we would have expected 12 or 13 each 'half', so clearly skewed again.

Grim stats

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

362.0 1937

340.0 1977

337.7 1912

335.2 1979

332.6 1923

331.9 2001

331.7 1883

330.6 1834

330.4 1925

330.2 1930

329.4 1910

328.4 1935

327.8 2007

326.5 1980

323.9 1919

322.9 1900

320.1 1928

319.6 1791

318.9 1939

~318  2016 up to 5th

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

362.0 1937

340.0 1977

~340 2016

The question that keeps coming to my mind was why the 2013-14 winter was so wet. I know that, just like this winter, the jet stream was very active that winter which was responsible for throwing so many LP systems at us, but unlike this winter there was no El Nino event then, nor was there one in the course of developing. It would appear that the huge El Nino of this winter has had at least some part in generating the very mild & wet winter we have had.

Let's hope it's at least another 18 years before we see such a large El Nino again!

Also highlights to noteworthy in the home counties here:- all since the 60s 🤔

2006 terrific thunderstorm after the last real hot summer.
2007 the sunny spring followed by the explosive depressions of summer.
2008 the first real ice days in a long time winter time.
2009 the most snow to fall in one night in a very long time.
2010 the January and December need I say more.
2011
2012 wet wet wet
2013 December the highest river level in decades.
2014
2015 extremes surround us Iby here near London us as the headlines weather news is for the west and north.

lack of thunderstorms very few and far locally hit and miss showers in comparison to more widespread outbreaks and proper storms of period 1990 - June  2006 (not to say thundery showers)

Interesting that only 1 of the top 10 is in the 15 years since the start of the Millenium- sounds unsurprising.

Interesting stats. I am a little surprised to see Northern Ireland's Winter figure (so far) being that low. Here in the Republic, the national winter mean total was standing at 507.9 mm up to yesterday.

Scotland needs only just over another 6mm of rain to match the 2013-14 rainfall record.

I'll be glad to see this autumn winter gone!

For 2011 I would include the phenomenal heat wave at the end of September and early October. It coincided with my paternity leave so I remember it well 

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

  455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

362.0 1937

~349 2016

Scotland

~627 2016
604.5 2014


Northern Ireland

452.2 1994
412.7 1995
407.7 1984
~407 2016

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915f

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

~363  2016

Scotland

~648. 2016
604.5 2014

Northern Ireland

452.2 1994
~416 2016

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

~367 2016

Scotland

~658  2016
604.5 2014

Northern Ireland

452.2 1994
~425 2016