If only.

Alerts for: Fredericton and Southern York County

Warnings

4:20 PM AST Monday 13 February 2017
Blizzard warning in effect for:

• Fredericton and Southern York County

Blizzard conditions with gusty winds and persistent visibility near zero in snow and blowing snow are expected or occurring.

Blizzard conditions are continuing for much of southern New Brunswick
this evening.

An intense low pressure system will slowly track south of Nova Scotia giving heavy snow, severe northeasterly winds and whiteout conditions.

Total snowfall amounts of 40 to 80 cm are expected with highest amounts over York, Sunbury and York counties. Highest wind gusts near 100 km/h will continue along the Fundy coast this afternoon.

The snow and winds will gradually diminish over western areas this evening and towards Tuesday morning for eastern areas.

Travel is expected to be extremely hazardous due to widespread poor visibility. Road closures are likely. Travel is not recommended.

Blizzard warnings are issued when widespread reduced visibilities of 400 metres or less are expected for at least 4 hours.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to [email protected] or tweet reports to #NBStorm.

Indeed, this has been the wettest winter since 2010/2011 at least, in term of what I've seen here in Southern California.  Definitely a long time since I saw mud in my garden.

We have yet another wet period to get through late this week and into the weekend.  Accuweather, which I believe uses GFS for the raw output have been quite on the money with the forecasts this winter, but with 25mm forecast Thursday and 69mm forecast Friday for Santa Monica, certainly some worrisome flooding to come. I believe at Oroville they are trying to get the lake level down 50 feet in anticipation of the late weke rains.

As for Mammoth, they've had gargantuan amounts over the last month and half.  I stored some stills taken from the webcams, which I'll try to find time to post.

 

 

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Eyes down on the end of week storm here. A full on pineapple-express is expected to push on-shore Friday morning local time, some estimates are putting rainfall anywhere between 3 and 6 inches for the coastal plain of LA County (with foothills seeing anything up to 12 inches of rain). With much of that expected in a window of 12 hours we are looking at some serious serious flooding and associated effects like mudslides. The raw GFS data is putting Santa Monica at close to 100mm for tomorrow, but rainfall here can be a fickle thing so it's definitely a nowcast situation. Most news agencies and weather agencies agree it will be the worst rainstorm for Southern California in several years so it's looking like a batten down the hatches thing. We are also expecting wind gusts over 50mph which surely means some downed trees with the sodden ground.

Also, higher elevations locally will see an incredible amount of snow if the snow levels stay reasonable. At above 7000 feet, Big Bear resort could see a big dumping if the snow levels drop early enough or don't rise as high.

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Looks like some unseasonably mild weather has approached the Prairies too: - 'Century old temperature record broken in Calgary'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-weather-record-high-1.3985229 

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This may be the first time in a while that both the UK and US will experience above average temperatures at the same time. Interesting to see the pattern of us being mild and unsettled due to cold weather in the US not happening this time around.

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Although it isn't a mild and unsettled pattern here. 

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Bad phrasing 

I meant previous winters when we had storms and it remained mild whilst they had bitter cold air.

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Absolutely lashing it down here in LA.  With some strong winds and the palm trees swaying violently, it feels very much like being in a tropical storm.  The rainfall radar is a thing of beauty:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/santa-monica-ca/90405/weather-radar/37998_pc

The storm however did take some time to push into the LA area, having stalled for a time only 30 miles west, so expected rainfall totals here on the beach have been reduced to an estimated 3 inches, down from the 4 to 6 inches it was forecasting at only midnight last night. Still, Northwest of here near Ventura and in LA's northern valley (Santa Clarita area), they will probably hit the original estimates having been sat in the aforementioned stalled front for a fair while earlier.  Even 3 inches in the few hours it is going to fall is going to cause some major problems.

Time to go scan the reports.

EDIT: 108mph gust at the Grapevine pass North of Santa Clarita.  Some suggestions coming in that we could see waterspouts as well this afternoon. Maybe I should walk down the beach with the camera if I dare go out.

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Some record warmth for Canadian prairies:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3251382/melting-snow-could-bring-record-temperatures-to-southern-manitoba/ 

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Back in October 2006 I drove across the Tioga Pass on the way to Yosemite NP and I've been interested in the place ever since. I often look at this page to see what kind of snow depth they have there, and this year looks like breaking records.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=10107&end=02%2F17%2F2017+16%3A42&geom=huge&interval=100&cookies=cdec01

At the moment there are 215 inches of snow on the ground (546 cm, just short of 18 feet!) and the storm hasn't pushed in yet. You can see that they added 90 inches in 4 days in January. Could this graph be showing 300 inches of snow after this storm? 

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Hi Darren, I'd not be surprised if that chart is underestimating the snow depth, as, IIRC, Tioga Pass entry station sits at 9,900 feet. Given the snowfall rates of nearby ski resorts of similar altitudes (e.g Mammoth) it seems quite low (relatively). Squaw Valley ski resort at Lake Tahoe is expecting up to 90 inches from this storm train over the next 5 days or so; Mammoth something similar.  The more snow, the more it compresses though, so it gets harder and harder to increase depths at the same rate relative to snowfall.

Whatever way one puts it, there's going to be some staggering depths if March keeps up with the wet/snowy theme.  I'm going to keep one eye on the opening date for Tioga Pass this year and get up there once they've ploughed it.  This year it is not likely to open until June in my opinion.

I walked down to the beach earlier and the wind was making the rain horizontal and sting as it hit.  The local storm drain that enters the sea was a torrent. I'll try to get a pic uploaded if I can after I'm dried out. Still raining hard but the worse looks like it is over. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms expected through tonight and tomorrow; hopefully some good cloudscapes with it.

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It certainly seems wet and very unsettled over there currently and indeed this winter generally. Keep up the updates please as it's always good to read a local's perspective.

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It's like 2am in Winnipeg, MB and temperatures are at +5c now take a look:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ca/winnipeg/r3e/weather-forecast/48989

This is some 20+ degrees above the seasonal average for February. - Just incredible warmth for them as well.

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Raining in Winnipeg MB:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ca/winnipeg/r3e/weather-forecast/48989 

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Remarkable warmth for the windy city of Chicago too at almost 70F (+20c)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/chicago-il/60608/weather-forecast/348308

Is this a record breaker anyone? -The average for Chicago in Feb is around -5c.

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Exceptional but North America is known for these wild swings and it could drop to -20 next day or next hour in some cases.

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The average max for the month of February is around 2°C and the February record is 24°C.

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Wasn't far out -4c is the average for February:

http://www.holiday-weather.com/chicago/averages/february/

Still some way off the February record of +24c.

Still - Temperatures of 66'F or +19c is very warm indeed.

 

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The average daily maximum is either 1.8 or 2.1°C depending on the site you use. The value of -4 would be the min and max value combined.

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Tomorrow could break the record:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/chicago-il/60608/daily-weather-forecast/348308?day=1 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/23/500-inches-and-counting-snow-has-clobbered-california-ski-resorts-this-winter/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.8f91d6e20ebd 

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Meanwhile - some record warmth for the eastern seaboard of USA:

Currently +25c - Not bad for February. But is it the record?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/washington-dc/20006/daily-weather-forecast/327659?day=1

 

Look at this - Boston, Mass at +22c :

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/boston-ma/02108/weather-forecast/348735

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DC is certainly very warm today for February although I'm not sure it will break the monthly record.

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And yet the mid-Atlantic jet stream still get fired up anyway, albeit in a fairly weakened state. I thought that is usually caused by deep cold penetrating south over the states, etc, etc, yadda.

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