http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016020918/gens-0-1-240.png

GFS control has an easterly, but not much cold air

Someone somewhere might just seea dusting

A.M all- Release pull and relive.

The UKMO, GFS and the Bracka Fax Charts - Main Focus currently at T60 to T144hr period Friday midday to Tuesday AM - The big issues for any possible rain to snow transition again are close , 528 dam line 500 hPa, -5 to -6 850 hPa, we need a proper Cold East west flow from all that it shows both Rain and Sleet but snow generally in mid to higher ground e.g. 150 to 500 metres asl and away from South and Central UK.

The only way it has to raise up snow from rain is if the massive Low P family - five Low's are covered from all N Atlantic to West Central and NE E Europe that later start to get push South and North NE at 120-144 hrs- SEcUK still left at Corner NNE flow as a Large Azores High moves across by 120 far West then across all UK by t144, at which stage 120 to 144 W Europe Northerly in full plunge cold feed to Tunisia and Warm v warm Southerly move north NE up far SE then E Europe kicking the cold Central and N Europe Cold air backing NW then quickly NE by 120 to 144 hrs.

😕😄💦💧❄️☀️🌎🌍.

For those in much of the south and east a mainly dry cold north easterly (with the odd coastal sleet shower) around February 15th is the "reward" for a winter of patiently waiting for the jet stram to abate. 

Roll on spring.

Interestingly with reference to your post WI, Carol Kirkwood just mentioned that as well as being cold this weekend "I don't think it is going to be dry (and you know what that means)". Her words not mine and it suggests the BBC/Met Office are keeping an eye on the snow potential which is shown in the charts. Worth watching the details on the models closer to the weekend.

As for the easterly before then...the less said the better.

Snow always ends up being a "nowcast" for England. No point speculating that the weekend won't deliver at this stage - it may or it may not, so there is always some hope up until the day itself. Here is to a white Valentine's day!

Sounds about right to me - uppers don't look good enough for anything too wintry in low lying southern districts but plenty for the midlands northwards. I agree bring on spring (or has it been since November?!) as the Jet stream has never buckled for long enough this winter in the correct position for us. I think it is now almost getting to the stage that this Winter is a write off with the remaining second half of February looking poor in this morning's output if snow and cold is what you are after.  

Even if we did get the right synoptics ( as we will this weekend) the air is so warm on the continent we might as well be in late April.  ECM right out to 240 and GFS to 384 show much the same rubbish as they have all winter with the only glimmer of hope around 180 hours on the GFS as it attempts to build a northern based scandy high:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0

ECM has this too at 192 but further south and on both it quickly gets swept away, let's hope we have a big bartlett so at least we have useful weather to end winter with.

This could turn out interesting

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A NW airflow across the UK today will weaken over the next 24 hours as a ridge moves slowly East across the UK backing winds to a light West or SW flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles remains between 1500ft asl and 3000ft asl. ith only limited instability in the atmosphere today just scattered snow showers over the mountains of the North seem likely over the next 24 hours.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly unsettled with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the South at the weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream already to the South of the UK troughs even further South over the UK as Low pressure crosses to the South of the UK. the flow then ridges North next week under a strong pressure rise before the flow becomes more undulating day to day with some periods of west to East motion over the UK mixed with times of a Southerly or Northerly tracking flow at times.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure quite low over the Uk for the next 4-5 days. The current benign and chilly conditions continue for a few days before things complicate as Low pressure in the Atlantic slips ESE across England and Wales towards and over the weekend. This looks like bringing a mix of rain and snow to the Southern half of the UK while Scotland is most likely to stay rather drier. Then a short and cold Northerly flow brings some snow showers South to all parts before a ridge collapsing SE across the UK brings a spell of cold and frosty conditions. Things then get much more complex again as pressure falls from the NW and with a pressure build shown over Scandinavia for a time more disrupting Low pressure slides SE across the UK with a further rain and snow mix. It's not until later in the second week when a more traditional pattern of Westerly winds with milder air bringing rain at times particularly to the North and West is shown to take control.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run largely follows the theme of the Operational Run with the one fundamental difference being the quicker return to a milder Westerly flow next week missing the second disrupting Low pressure area shown by the Operational run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still suggest strong support for High pressure to lie to the SW of the UK in 14 days. With strong support as well for Low pressure to be close to the North or NE all areas seem likely to keep unsettled and windy weather with rain and showers at times. With a Northerly sourced wind on occasions there remains room for some wintriness in the rain at times over the hills and in the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure slipping ESE across the South of the UK through the coming weekend. The current set fair weather will continue until Friday before some rain edges into the South from the SW on Friday. Then a more meaningful attack of Low pressure across England and Wales over the weekend brings a three way split in weather with rain in the far South, the possibility of snow across Central areas and brighter drier conditions over Scotland. The whole frontal complex then moves quickly away East come Monday with cold weather for all with snow showers in places. A quieter and frosty phase under a ridge of High pressure then crosses West to East across the UK through Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show slack and benign pressure structures across the UK until Friday. The Fax Charts have now pushed the weekend fronts further North again this morning with the fronts and parent depressions making their way up into Southern Britain with rain and showers down here. Towards the Midlands and North a messy mix of rain and snow seems possible while the far North stays bright with wintry showers. This cold and windy Northerly weather type then extends quickly South and East to all areas by Monday as the Low pressure areas in the South pull away to Europe.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today is rather different longer term with the same procedure for the next 5 days indicated on this run as shown on the other models. The differences commence early next week as there is a less clean Northerly which in turn collapses the ridge crossing East more quickly and in turn returns wet and windy conditions by midweek or soon after. The Low pressure complex responsible then moves SE and brings cold and wintry showery type weather by the end of next week for all with winds swinging East in response to a strong rise of pressure over Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a rather different shape to the synoptics next week as we exit the weekend Low pressure complex over the South of the UK and replace it with gently rising pressure and a drier day or two before Atlantic milder SW'lies move across the UK by midweek next week with some rain at times in the North and NW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows a similar evolution to the main message from the pack this morning as the weekend Low pressure over the South moves away East by Monday in the wake of a strong High pressure ridge transiting East. Thereafter it's the theme of a return of strong Westerly winds with rain at times, firstly mostly over the North but extending South to all areas by the end of the run and seemingly returning us slowly to Square 1 by Day 10 with rain and wind at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today looks quite similar to the 10 day chart of it's operational indicating to me that confidence is quite high that the model has the pattern right with most likely conditions across the UK at Day 10 maintaining Atlantic based conditions between High pressure over the Azores and Low pressure near Iceland with rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message continues the theme of a more Westerly based weather pattern after a brief ridge early next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 88.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.1 pts to 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 48.9 pts to ECM's 47.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The main message given by this morning's output remains as yesterday for a return to Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times once we have moved away from the current rather complex and cold pattern currently developing across the UK. What we have now is a somewhat slack and showery NW flow under relatively low pressure and there will be a few wintry showers scattered about over the next few days especially near exposed coasts adjacent to the light Westerly drift. It's from Friday on and particularly over the weekend when things complicate big time as a push of mild Atlantic Low pressure moving ESE towards Southern Britain engages the colder air over the UK and increases the risk of snow for some. Where this boundary lies is the main sticking point unconfirmed at present but on this morning's evidence it looks like plain old cold rain for the far South while the Midlands and Wales could be in for some snow while Scotland maintains the current bright with wintry shower type pattern. Later in the weekend pressure builds North through the Atlantic and a cold Northerly flow sweeps cold air across all areas briefly early next week. Some snow showers could be witnessed by many briefly before High pressure crosses east cutting off the North flow with some sunny and frosty weather for a day or two. Then for the second week of the output it's all about the return of milder Atlantic Westerlies again with rain and showers returning for many in milder air with this theme shown in various guises between the models. In summary there is something for everyone in this morning's run and while the weather is rather cold there is in my mind insufficiently cold air over the UK at the weekend to give rise to widespread snowfall but some areas on the higher ground may be lucky then with a slow theme of milder air returning later next week there is something for milder loving folks too although there is a lot of weather to get through before we reach that.       

Next Update Thursday February 11th 2016 from 09:00

Yes not exactly Jan 87 but this is as good as it's going to get for the south this winter so might as well enjoy it. Snow likely Cotswolds chilterns maybe a few cms this wkend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.html

I guess it's entirely possible that even if there is no notable change in pattern before the end of February, that doesn't mean to say there won't be any changes during March at some point.

I am reminded of the cold spell that started around mid-March 2008 which came on the back of a mostly mild and atlantic dominated winter and then persisted until just after mid-April. Whether that had anything to do with SSW or not I have no idea, but it was a notable change in pattern nevertheless given what had preceded it.

Should get a decent frost from that.

I wouldn't write off the rest of February just yet.The return to the Atlantic looks a bit slow with GEFS  still showing   negative uppers in 90% of ENS at 192h and 80% at  240h.Unfortunately the range is generally -2 to -4 so looks like a cold rain situation for most.

GFS6z manages to turn Saturday into quite a mild day in the south. Very wet though! Would fit in nicely with the winter pattern. 

GFS has downgraded the snow event for the south on Saturday: - All we can see is some wet snow and sleet for Snowdonia and perhaps Sleet for Pennines.

GEFS6z trending notably milder in the south. Time to begin looking for spring down here?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png

This winter has been a non stop set of downgrades.

That cold air just doesnt want to be our friend this year.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

METO latest fax for Saturday also shows northward shift with 528 line along the Scottish boarder.

Yet another busted flush then! What a shocking winter! I thought 2013-14 was the winter never to be repeated.

I think I trust the met forecast over one GFS run, 4 degrees and sleet for me. 

Better get used to it! I've bitten the bullet and booked a long weekend ski trip, at least it is snowing in the Alps today!

I fail to see what relevance some of the last few posts have for this thread....please share your reminiscences elsewhere. 

I've already asked nicely.

Further off topic posts will be binned.