Very concise summary Michael, but it seems some posters will keep asking about the 'SSW' despite repeated explanations about why this current event doesn't quite qualify as one.

One sentence questions such as you were asked and kindly answered are borderline trolling IMHO

The GFS 6H seems to be struggling to roll out past about +165- anybody know why?

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016021306/gens-18-1-300.png

Here's the only straw I could find to clutch.

I bet poor Steve Murr regrets his ramp yesterday

Oh dear, what a disaster of a winter! Roll on the long days of summer. I've given up now

Thanks Michael for the update .I was away from model watching for four weeks so lost the plot on SSW and now am rather grasping at straws as winter grinds towards a snowless close here in Winchester

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=532

The operational line is strangely consistent throughout the chart. Is this because of uncertainty or linked to the delay in rolling out the rest of GFS 6z?

Leaving the joys of GFS stuff aside, the consensus from other ensemble suites currently suggests risk of snow on Weds across high ground of central/E England, with 30% chance of this extending down to low levels over Midlands/E England. There's also currently a 25% chance of lowland snow into Thurs *if* front slows and decays in-situ. All very awkward and no clear-cut pointer to eventual outcome.

From IF

Seen that statement..   Needs to get a bit closer to N.E. Somerset..  

Could someone with patience please explain the difference between the control and the operational runs in, say, GFS? ( a precis will do).

Thanks anyone.

AFAIK the only difference is that the operational run is at a higher resolution.

In short:

Operational run = high resolution model, no change to initial conditions

Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points)

Ensemble runs = the lower resolution model (same as control run) but with small changes to initial conditions (20 little tweaks)

Mean = average of the ensembles 

Wintry mix crossing the UK

Wednesday and Thursday still chilly

Ignore the GFS6z line because there was a problem on my data server which prevented the datasets from downloading fully. The GEFS plots themselves are valid. 

The GFS12z and GEFS12z are on schedule this afternoon and the earlier problem has been resolved.

Early next week potentially early teen highs and nice sunshine.

After today's dire effort winter can jog on now 👌☀️🌩

The winter of disappointments that just keeps on giving.

For the East Kent crew there has been nothing this winter. The opportunity to finally see a little snow in the form of convective showers appears to be diminishing now with uppers a tad too warm and a more N'ly rather than NE'ly feed.

The forecast of bitterly cold winds with an air temperature of 5 or 6c is frankly insulting.

The GFS continues to toy with a settled and very mild spell towards FI. Lets all hope this verifies. Even eastern parts of Scotland would benefit from this in the form of a Fohn effect I would have thought 

Winter 2015-16 is one for the dustbin of weather annals.

Agreed. The much touted 'late show' looking increasingly like a bust. Never say never and early March can deliver but it has to be very special to overcome increasing solar heating. 

An entire winter without any falling snow is actually quite rare so in that respect this one is not without interest 🤔

No they aren't

I don't know, really hard to see warm air trying to break through on this chart (which is way out in FI of course)

Don't understand how anyone can say that at the moment, tbh. The ECM 12z op looks more promising for a potential cold spell than the vast majority of model output we've seen this winter, that is apart from when GFS teased us with a major height rise over Greenland for two or three days in early January.

New thread coming along in a few minutes, closing this one shortly.