http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook Summary
High pressure dominating until at least Easter
March definitely came in like a lion, with some wet and windy conditions affecting many parts of the UK. Only last week a potent area of low pressure crossed southern parts of the UK, leading to some flooding across parts of the Midlands and some very strong winds across Wales and southwest England.
Over the course of the past weekend though, the weather settled down significantly, with dry conditions dominating and foggy mornings giving way to sunny afternoons. This settled weather was a result of a large anticyclone that developed to the east of the UK. At this stage it looks as if this high pressure system will continue to influence UK weather conditions through until at least the Easter weekend. There is the prospect that March will indeed go out like a lamb. That said, there are some uncertainties in regard to this theme.
Monday 14 March—Sunday 20 March
A dry start and a dry end.
The week will get underway with an anticylone centred just to the northeast or directly over the northern reaches of the UK, and the anticyclone is unlikely to move a great deal through the entire period. As a result, there will be an almost completely dry picture for the overwhelming majority of the UK through the week.
Monday will get off to a dry and partly cloudy start, with some patchy fog in places. Much of the cloud and certainly the fog will lift through the morning though, leading to a dry and bright afternoon for all. Conditions will most likely be warmest across western and northern parts of Scotland, with a slightly chilly easterly breeze across many eastern parts of the UK, particularly in the south.
Through the middle part of the week, it looks like skies will become generally cloudier. This will most likely mean there will be less overnight fog to contend with, but also that the afternoons won't be as bright, although some sunny spells will no doubt develop in places, particularly across the western fringes of the UK. Most places will stay dry throughout, but there is a risk that the cloud might just be thick enough to produce the odd spot of rain at times, most likely further towards the north.
As we head into the weekend, a similar theme will prevail, with a lot of dry weather and variable amounts of cloud.
On the whole, temperatures will be around the average for the time of year throughout the week, but some western and northern areas of the UK that are not so exposed to the generally easterly wind will become quite warm at times in any afternoon sunshine that develops.
Monday 21 March—Sunday 27 March
Mostly dry again, but signs of a change for some?
As we move through the week leading up to Easter, almost all indications from the various forecasting tools and techniques suggest a persistence of high pressure. This will likely mean another largely dry week. The main challenge of this forecast period will most likely be attempting to determine how cloudy the skies will be. Any clear spells will introduce the possibility of some slightly warmer than average conditions by day, but conversely clear overnight spells will increase the chance of some patchy early morning frost and fog. We are therefore likely to see some large diurnal temperature ranges which is of course fairly normal for this time of year here in the UK.
Moving through the Easter weekend, there are some signs that the dominance of the high pressure system might start to wane a little, particularly toward northwestern parts of the UK. This may lead to a spell of wetter and windier weather for some northwestern areas.
Monday 28 March—Sunday 10 April
An uncertain start to April
Even for the longer range, confidence in the detail of the forecast for the first few days of April is particularly low. The suite of different computer forecasting models that we employ are suggesting a relatively wide array of different solutions. At the time of writing, it is felt that as we move into April weather conditions will slowly start to become a little more unsettled, with some spells of wet and windy weather moving from the northwest. The best of any drier conditions are anticipated to be chiefly across the southeast of the UK, with temperatures falling a touch below average for the time of year. However, some models suggest that the blocked pattern of high pressure that will dominate much of the second half of March could well hang on into early April. It will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves over the coming week.
Next week
Next week we'll start firming up on some of the broader themes of the forecast for the Easter weekend, and whether or not showers will become prevalent during the first part of April. Find out all of these details next week ...