UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 8 Nov 2016:

For Sunday and Monday, high pressure remains established across the south, bringing a good deal of dry and quiet weather for many. However, some will see occasional mist and fog form overnight and this may well be slow to clear by day. Temperatures will be mostly above average, but with some cold nights in the south, perhaps with local frost. Meanwhile, the north of the UK is likely to be wetter and windier at times, more so further west. Confidence is quite low from Tuesday on, although the expectation is for colder weather with more widespread night frosts, and generally northerly or north-westerly winds over the UK. Indications suggest unsettled weather with showers and strong winds at times in the north, and generally drier weather with lighter winds further south.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 23 Nov 2016:

The outlook for mid November remains uncertain. Although spells of windier and stormier weather look to be less likely than normally expected at this time of year. At first, indications suggest northerly or north-westerly winds to predominate over the UK, leading to lower than average temperatures for many and a widespread risk of frosts. The expectation is also for windier more showery conditions in the north, with snow over some higher ground, and drier more settled weather in the south. Towards the end of the period confidence continues to be low, with the more likely scenario looking to be a continuation of the mainly, drier, settled weather, although there remains a possibility of a change towards milder more unsettled conditions.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpvj0v07 

met office have covered most angles in that forecast a bit of everything then and the met office have used the word UNCERTAIN

 if a forecaster is UNCERTAIN about there own forecast ---- if in dout ---- leave it out ---- as they say .

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-weather-storm-angus-set-to-batter-britain-with-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-as-winter-finally-arrives/ar-AAjodw2?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp  REALLY ?

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Oct 2016 to Wednesday 9 Nov 2016:

For Monday and Tuesday high pressure will stay established across the south, bringing a good deal of dry and quiet weather for many. Some will see patchy mist and fog form overnight though and this may well be slow to clear by day. Temperatures will be mostly above average, but with possibly some cold nights in the south. Meanwhile, the north of the UK is likely to be wetter and windier at times, more so further west. From Wednesday confidence is quite low, although the expectation is for colder weather with more widespread night frosts, and generally northerly or north-westerly winds over the UK. Indications suggest unsettled weather with showers and strong winds at times in the north, and generally drier weather with lighter winds further south.

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Nov 2016 to Thursday 24 Nov 2016:

The outlook for mid November remains uncertain however spells of windier and stormier weather look to be less likely than normally expected at this time of year. Indications suggest that at first northerly or north-westerly winds are likely to predominate over the UK, leading to lower than average temperatures for many and a widespread risk of frosts. The expectation is also for windier more showery conditions in the north, perhaps with snow over some higher ground, and drier more settled weather in the south. Towards the end of the period confidence continues to be low, with the more likely scenario looking to be a continuation of the mainly drier, settled weather, although there is a signal for below average temperatures.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpvj0v07 

Incredible!  The Met are now suggesting that it is more likely than not for Britain to have a continuation of the rather benign weather through the whole of November, the last month of meteorological autumn.  If this happens, we will have had an autumn practically devoid of Atlantic driven, wet and windy periods.  I cannot recall anything like it.

David, Northallerton

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Certainly unusual.  But I am sure we'll see a change come eventually

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Nov 2016 to Sunday 13 Nov 2016:

On Friday the expectation is for rain in the south of the country to clear slowly southwards, leaving sunshine and blustery showers across the whole of the UK. Temperatures will mostly be colder than average, with some snow over Scottish mountains. Thereafter, there is large degree of uncertainty regarding details, but this general theme looks set to continue from Saturday, with winds mainly from the north, and showers or bands of rain running into the country. Temperatures will likely stay on the cool side, with frosts increasingly likely overnight and occasional snowfall over high ground in the north of the UK. Periods of milder weather are possible, but the expectation is that any of these will be brief, with the colder theme being predominant.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Nov 2016 to Monday 28 Nov 2016:

The forecast remains very uncertain for mid to late November. However spells of windier and stormier weather look to be less frequent than would normally be expected for the time of the year. It looks most likely that we'll see a continuation of winds from a broadly northerly direction at first bringing cooler than usual temperatures, with potential for widespread frosts. Northern parts are likely to see more in the way of showers or longer spells of rain and stronger winds, with the risk of snow, especially over some higher ground. Further south, it will perhaps be drier with more widespread frost and fog under lighter winds.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpvj0v07 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 31 October—Sunday 6 November

Change in month will bring change in temperature

As we move into November, our weather in still in slow motion with only gradual changes taking place. However there will be one difference this week from what we have seen in October. The large area of high over Scandinavia is being replaced by low pressure while high pressure becomes located to the west of the British Isles. This will see a northwesterly airflow becoming established resulting in a drop in temperatures across all parts. The colder air will follow a band of rain which will move south across Scotland and Northern Ireland during Monday and then across England and Wales during Tuesday, this rain gradually fizzling out as it comes southwards. Coming behind is some colder weather with much brighter skies and sunshine but also an increasing risk of frosts at nights. A widespread frost is expected in the north on Monday night and in many areas on Wednesday and Thursday nights. A brief period of more unsettled weather will come along later in the week as an area of low pressure crosses the country. Rain will reach northwest Scotland on Thursday, making its way down across all parts during Friday and Saturday with sunshine and some showers following on Sunday. Cloudier skies later in the week will mean less frost but temperatures still on the cool side.

Monday 7 November—Sunday 13 November

Typically autumnal

As we head into the second week of November the pattern of fairly quiet autumn weather continues. Pressure will always remain high to the south and west of the British Isles maintaining a good deal of dry weather. Winds will mostly come in from a north or northwesterly direction bringing troughs of low pressure containing showers or even some longer spells of rain and stronger winds. The air will be cold enough for this to fall as snow over the hills of Scotland. This is not unusual for this time of year, what is more unusual is the fact we have not seen more snow on the hills so far the autumn. The driest conditions and best of any sunshine will be over the southern half of England and Wales. It will be a cold week more widespread frosts and also patchy fog, most likely in the south where winds will continue to be lightest.

Monday 14 November—Sunday 27 November

More of the same

Looking further ahead into November and the details become more uncertain. However there are still no signs of any change to the wet and windy side of autumn. Instead, the indications are for a continuation of winds coming in from a north or northwesterly direction. This will keep temperatures a little below normal and frosts will be more widespread across the country. We may well see areas of low pressure passing close to the north of the British Isles bringing an increase in showery conditions and stronger winds.

Next week

As we enter the meteorological winter, are we in for a cold one? Watch this space....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

November to January outlook from WSI

"For the upcoming November–January period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting slightly above normal temperatures across the United Kingdom and Western Europe, with more substantial positive temperature anomalies expected across eastern Europe.

“The colder weather in October, driven by a strong Scandinavian blocking ridge, is not necessarily a sign of things to come this winter,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist, The Weather Company. “We are monitoring this blocking pattern, and if it remains through November, it could indicate a weakened polar vortex that persists through winter, resulting in an increased risk of colder weather for Europe. For now, we are hesitant to embrace the idea of an unusually cold winter, but we do expect abundant intra-seasonal variability that will provide more spells of cold weather than we’ve seen in the last three winters across western Europe. All evidence suggests another unusually mild winter across eastern Europe.”

November Forecast by Region

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal east

U.K.* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Colder than normal

Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

December Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west

January Forecast by Region

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west"

https://business.weather.com/blog/european-seasonal-outlook-colder-drier-winter-than-last-3-years-in-western-europe

Wrapping this thread up in the next few minutes - pens down please

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