Quite a temp contrast over the weekend

Cold up North mild in the South

Cooler weather back for the start of the week

Cold start to March still on offer

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Quite a potent North westerly shown at present for Monday of next week.However  risk that the ampltude will flatten out before we get there

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_30_preciptype.png?cb

I must just get my third covering of snow this winter

The EURO4 gives me nothing

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 17TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A frontal trough will continue to move slowly and erratically East across the UK today and tonight followed by a ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the South of the UK lies around 5000ft or so across the South and nearer 2000ft over Scotland. Through the day and tonight the freezing level will fall over England and Wales to around 2000ft so that the level is broadly the same everywhere with snow showers across the hills and mountains of the North. Some sleet or snow may turn up on higher ground of England and Wales above 1000ft later today and tonight especially towards the Midlands and the SE. 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will strengthen across the Atlantic Ocean over the coming days surging across the UK through the weekend and next week. Then the flow becomes more sine wave with a period of deep troughing across the UK late next week and a more diffuse pattern developing thereafter.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a generally rather chilly and changeable pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. In Summary the run shows a lot of Atlantic based weather with spells of rain followed by spells of showers and colder conditions with snow in places and not necessarily just on Northern hills at times. A period of more generally cold weather as Low pressure slips South across the UK late next week is shown lasting several days as High pressure builds behind with sharp night frosts. Then towards the end of the period more rather cold Low pressure is shown to slip down over the UK from the NW with further rain or perhaps snow at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run also shows a strong Atlantic influence to the weather pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. The alternating pattern of milder vs colder is also shown on this run although there seems a milder phase through the start of the second week as High pressure to the South pushes the Jet Stream North for a time and allows tropical maritime air into the mix in the South at least before it looks more changeable and rather cold again across many areas by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today still show a lot of support for a NW flow to lie across the UK in two weeks time. As of previous days the differences between members remain focused on what extent this NW flow has both on temperatures and unsettledness of the weather likely across the UK with High pressure either focused near the Azores or displaced further North in the Atlantic.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a strong Westerly flow with heavy rain on Saturday swept away East on Sunday as a cold front sweeps through from the WNW. Then the early days of next week look cold and windy with wintry showers and frosts at night especially across the North and West. A ridge of High pressure is then shown to approach the UK from the Atlantic by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today support the raw data reasonably accurately as it shows the slack pressure of the next few days reinvigorating to a strong Westerly flow by the weekend with fronts straddling England and Wales by then with heavy rain at times but milder too. Then a cold front is shown to sweep SE on Sunday with colder showery air reaching all areas with some wintry showers across the North and West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a complex Atlantic weather based pattern over the 10 day period with winds basically Westerly throughout with rain or showers at times. With much cold air to the North of the UK  there is every chance indicated in the model that the air over the UK could be often cold enough for snow on hills especially as usual over Northern Britain and more generally late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM painta a changeable picture this morning and has small differences to the majority of the other models in as much as it shows milder conditions across the South lasting rather longer over the weekend still with rain at times though. Then next week the pattern remains changeable with colder air sweeping SE with some wintry showers in places giving way to drier weather with some night frosts by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning looks very changeable over the next 10 days with the current wet weather slipping away east tomorrow ahead of strengthening and milder westerly winds with rain at the weekend. Deep Low pressure to the NE early next week pulls strong cold NW winds with sleet or snow showers in places lasting until midweek when a frosty ridge passes across from the West. Then hot on it's heels the end of next week turns wet and windy again for many in closer to average temperatures again at least for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream a long way South in 10 days with Low pressure close to northern Scotland and High pressure well away to the SW. The UK looks likely to lie in a NW flow with rain or showers at times in temperatures near to or a little below average with snow a risk on hills of the North at least at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall theme remains for a Westerly Atlantic based pattern in fluctuating temperatures and rain and showers at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.9 pts to UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 51.8 pts to ECM's 51.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure remains elusive in the model outputs this morning and leaving temperatures aside it looks likely than the official Winter end of 2015-2016 will finish as it began with Atlantic based Westerly winds and rain at times the likely pattern as we enter the meteorological Spring. However, having said that the source of air for much of the period will ensure it is unlikely to be as mild as back in December as Low pressure areas to the North hone it much closer to the UK than then with rain, heavy at times for all areas followed by colder shower spells. With the Jet Stream still quite strong and a long way South at times it will feel rather cold for periods through the next few weeks and although widespread long lasting cold remains unlikely some short cold snaps between weather systems could provide enough excitement at times to provide some heavy showers with snow in places and possibly hail and thunder too especially in the North. Not much else to say really this morning with the main differences between the models focusing on timing and orientation of various weather systems as they cross the UK leading to day to day differences in the weather experienced at the surface within the general framework of the Atlantic based Westerly pattern.        

Next Update Thursday February 18th 2016 from 09:00 

Thanks for another detailed summary Gibby. Interesting that ECM still tops GFS at all resolutions except the 10-day- that's quite an established pattern, is it not?

Latest from METO on today's snow risk

UK forecast for the next 5 days

Rain, sleet and snow slowly spreading southeastwards on Wednesday.

Today:

Bright in the far southeast. Elsewhere, rain continuing to move slowly southeastwards, turning to sleet and snow in places, mainly over higher ground. Sunshine and scattered wintry showers following across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Feeling rather cold.

Tonight:

Rain across parts of central, eastern and southern England could turn to snow, possibly even to lower levels, giving accumulations in places. Clearer further northwest with an ice risk.

No doubt this will be downgraded as the day proceeds!

Will I have the air left in me to stay up? I know what'll happen if I do, and can guess what might if I don't.

Since it's well into FI territory at the moment I know we shouldn't pay much attention to it, but there does appear to be something of a theme developing in GFS FI for slightly higher heights to the north to gradually start becoming more prominent as we head towards late February/early March. Whether or not the changes in the MJO that James has often spoken about and the SSW which I believe from posts I saw in the last thread commenced a week to ten days ago are being picked up on by the models, I have no idea, but as Martin said in his model summary, a return to the exceptionally mild pattern we saw in December looks unlikely.

Agreed but GFS has been not bad at picking up events in FI this Winter long before they actually occur - as you say hard to say whether it's the MJO or SSW causing this, but typical as we get to March Winter dream charts appear!  (Rather like the 1st June you can guarantee severe northern blocking in recent years)  Last night's chart for the start of March was almost carbon copy March 2013 but this morning's run has moderated that somewhat, one to watch in subsequent runs. On the plus side the chance of a March 2013 event happening this March must be as likely as December 2010 happening this December - cold March's seem to be well spaced apart so until those synoptics are in the near time frame range and ECM is on board, we can just be interested by them for now. 

In the here and now I might just see my first flake of sleet overnight, the excitement builds...not...roll on spring

According to GFS widespread snow on Sunday

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=2

No doubt to be downgraded!

Word to sum up this winter? Downgrade.

Infact - apart from stormy/wet weather. I haven't seen any apparent upgrade in wintry weather at all. Very very unusual.

Edit : Wait until we get to April.  When we we see an upgrade from april showers to really nasty blustery Wintry showers, whilst Europe kicks into Spring with lots of sunshine.

Still a lot of blocking showing up in the GEFS as we move into March. I guess its a just a matter of wait and see.

From IF

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather  2 hrs2 hours ago

W COUNTRY After a milder phase this weekend, there's evidence for an extended period of below-normal temps rest of Feb into early-mid March

If Ian is right, this could well be the colder end to winter & start of spring that was being touted by some back in the early part of the season.

Not counting my chickens yet though. We were teased with a major rise in heights over the Greeny region for a few days back in early January, and ultimately it came to nothing. Maybe though with the changes in the MJUO and the start, the chances of northern blocking developing sometime soon could be a bit higher than they were earlier in the winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0

Another GFS mirage -but the sort of cahrt we have been waiting for.

Shhhhhh!

We have Low Pressure this Weekend, Central and South very mild, 14 or 15 deg. C, and a cold NW flow as the Triangular Low winds SE to NE, gives cold NNW flow later Sunday and on Monday.

Azores and North Atlantic High P. team up, affecting the UKMO 144 chart, west and SW parts less cold, due to it, and on Tuesday this High GFS sends a ridge from the N Atlantic across us.

If GFS thinks next Week Thursday and Friday a NW Atlantic to UK to West NW and Central Europe PFJ Low it predicts but yet it is not in UKMO range ahem.

At Thurs- Saturday of next week GFS has Newfoundland to NW Atlantic NE USA SE Canada PFJ Low, and we could see mild and wet Westerly then Cyclonic then NE flow, with cold air pushing across UK from NE Europa!.

I will be patiently watching all this but if it is not cold and wintry in London during this proposed outlook then I am still happy so please stop and think that good winters, mild winters and colder winters are three types we tend to play with each winter and spring, it is never simple to explain.  I miss the heavy snow and cold easterly' and those times we use to get heavy snow from North Atlantic Polar Express...😇😅😀💦❄️☃☔️.  Staring at rain or sleet or snow.

A Scandy NE N Europe High with cold NW to SE Jetstream can give us winter but only if the source of the air is C O L D enough.

dewpoints of -3, 850hpa temps of -7 or - 8, and 15-20 mph N, NW, NE or E winds, and -35 to -40 at the 500hPa level, night evening and am frosts with Low's temps down to -3 or -4 and maxes only at -1 or plus 2 that is important for late winter snow or early to mid spring snow.  I am happy if it R A I N S that is also fine!.

Snow sweeping South on Sunday then ...............hmmmmmm

Yet the BBC forecast a high of +14c in the south on Sunday!!

I should imagine thats the early part of the day as a cold front sweeps South