Usual rules.

Anyone any thoughts on this FAX T60 chart?.
Looks like a washout?.

The 528 is well to the west, I reckon it's all gonna' be rain.(again)
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160213.1731.PPVJ89.png.

LOL. 3 warm fronts, 3 cold fronts them 2 troughs......

I think you're in the firing line but if the models are correct the south-eastwards momentum may be mostly lost.  Quite a marked slow down is evident by the T+72 chart.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160213.1731.PPVK89.png

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20160213.0557.PPVL89.png

Yes, I saw that before I made the comment: look back at the T+48 chart and see how far the fronts travel between then and T+60, then compare with T+72.  Marked slowing, as you'd expect given the ridge ahead.

Might have rushed it and panicked a bit?.

Yes, War Hawk noted that in the now-defunct thread, but it's a transient warm sector and looks potentially windy, damp and murky to me.  The mild air looks restricted to southern parts as well, ushered in by a potentially active warm front delivering overnight rain and murk.

Still cold into Thursday , the front takes its time crossing the UK

The fax for midday Monday shows a trough grazing the south Foreland in a north easterly flow.  Whether there will be any on-land precipitation is debate-able.  Whether it is of the white variety is unlikely.  Poor show.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

Fax for Wednesday shows HP a bit further west and slightly  slower progress of fronts.All inall however its more dismal downgrades tp end a dismal winter.

If the GEFS is on the mark for the second half of the month there must a reasonable chance of this being the mildest CET winter recorded? Can anyone confirm this? 

Edit; 1869 I think is the current warmest one on record.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 14TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will advance East across the UK tomorrow following the weakening of a cold and dry NE flow which is currently whisking away the cloudy damp troughs of Low pressure over the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is now fairly universal at or around 2000ft across the UK. Snow showers in the North and East will continue to give local accumulations of snow there mostly but not exclusively over the hills and mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is blowing due east South of the UK currently. Over the next few days the flow buckles North and ridges across the UK as a ridge passes East. The flow then continues to undulate remaining largely well South over Europe and either travelling South over or near the UK until Week 2 when the flow becomes West to East across the UK again for a time at least.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a strong ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK over the coming days with cold and frosty air within. Then by midweek Atlantic troughs run into the cold air from the West decelerating as they do with a messy mix of rain and snow West to East across the UK from Wednesday gradually dying out from most by Friday with clearer and rather cold weather following on behind with a few wintry showers in the NW. Thereafter the run shows milder Atlantic Westerly winds returning to all areas with rather cloudy and breezy weather with rain at times the order of the day through the second week.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run again follows a similar path through Week 1 with the second week showing changeable conditions too with Westerly winds and rain or showers and some snow too especially in the North as alternating temperatures affect all areas of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today mostly support West or NW winds across the UK in 2 weeks time with rain or showers plus hill snow very likely as Low pressure dominates the UK weather close to Scotland. There is very limited support for any High pressure based weather with just 15% of members supporting any influence of High pressure at all down to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the early week ridge giving way to a cold front crossing East and SE across al areas midweek. Moving into cold air snow is a threat for many before the front decelerates and decays over SE areas as chilly WNW winds and occasional wintry showers affect other areas before milder Westerly winds arrive certainly for the North by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the complex trough structure moving down over the UK from the NW later this coming week following a strong ridge of High pressure crossing East over all areas up to that point. The air is shown to be chilly both ahead and behind the front with wintry showers following the main band of rain, sleet and snow on the front itself.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today follows the pack in the complex movement of an occluded front moving SE across the UK midweek with a mix of rain, sleet and snow in places for several days around the Wednesday/ Thursday time point before the pattern simplifies to a West or WNW flow, often chilly and showery with some shorter milder rainy spells as troughs cross East over the UK at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM was unavailable for some reason or another at time of issue.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM also shows a trough crossing SE midweek, running into the cold air over the UK and offering a heady mix of rain, sleet and snow. Following on behind will also be a lot of chilly air with wintry showers and night frosts likely. Into next weekend and the following week it looks like some more chilly and showery west or NW winds with wintry showers will alternate with milder rainy weather over the South at times as weather systems pass by to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream near to the South of the UK with West or NW winds looking the likely position we find ourselves in at the 10 day time point between Low pressure to the North and perhaps the NE of the UK and High pressure well to the South and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message is a little mixed but with the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days following a messy period when milder air may be delayed for a time through midweek next week remains the main agreements behind today's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.5 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.5 pts to 65.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 51.2 pts to ECM's 50.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS back after a short break and this morning the theme of the output doesn't look so very different to what it was on Thursday when I last compiled this report. The last hurrah of the weekend's chilly and damp weather is leaving the South coast as I speak and opening the door to a cold NNE flow with wintry showers in the East. Pressure will be rising very rapidly across the UK over the next 24-48hrs and a strong ridge will cover the UK as a result by late Monday and into Tuesday. It looks unlikely to hold though as a complex Low pressure trough associated by Low pressure well to the North moves into the UK cold air with all sorts of fun and games looking possible for a time as a result. The front will bring in a spell of rain for all with the undetermined factor being how much of that falls as sleet or snow with the East and SE looking best favoured for that as it stands. Whatever happens it will stay cold for many through the working week as even following the trough the air is cold enough for wintry showers for Western and Northern areas. The models from next weekend do suggest less cold conditions at times without ever showing anything remarkably mild for very long periods before colder and more showery conditions return from the West and NW at times. All areas in Week 2 look like seeing some rain or showers with snowfall on hills at times especially in the North. Overall temperatures look likely to be near or a little below average at times as various pressure systems and air masses pass over any any place day to day. It still looks bad news for anyone looking for sustained dry and fine weather and although winds are largely Westerly later in the period the air is likely to be chillier than we have seen on these winds for much of the Winter gone so I'm sure we will think it rather cold for much of the time.

Next Update Monday February 15th 2016 from 09:00

yes - look how much further the jet stream is!?? - Southern Spain. - met Office said a chance (albeit a low) chance of widespread colder conditions towards the turn of the month" - in their update.

Saturday gets the mild air in

more jam Tally- I've given up now. It's spring I'm going to be looking for in the model output now on

Actually its still Winter and its February 14th, not Spring.

Going by Gavs latest forecast the warmest month will be March followed by 5 below average months along with unsettled weather.

Of course this is through the eyes of CFS

LOL it's just snatched away from us time after time. What was looking like a tidy spell of cold weather, frosts and battleground snow is now just a whisper. So frustrating!

Warmest month of spring? Or of they year Jan, Feb, March? It is a warmer month as it's a spring month.

Chip paper then