*Checks the date*

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Apr 2016 to Friday 15 Apr 2016:

A generally unsettled outlook, with showers or longer spells of rain. Some of these could turn heavy and thundery, especially in the northwest, while southeastern areas are more likely to see longer sunny periods. It should start warmer in the south, before temperatures fall to around or just below normal, but feeling rather cold during clearer overnight periods, with some frosts possible. The pattern of sunshine and showers, with some drier interludes, is expected to continue into the following week. The most frequent of the showers will be in the north and west, with an increasing risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to return to around normal, with a small chance that it could become a little warmer in the south later in the period.

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Apr 2016 to Saturday 30 Apr 2016:

The forecast is very uncertain through the rest of April. There is a signal that it is more likely to be changeable with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, or longer spells of rain. Some longer drier spells are also likely, particularly in the northwest. Overall temperatures will remain around normal for the time of year but with some warmer spells developing at times.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Apr 2016 to Saturday 16 Apr 2016:

Thursday will see a mix of sunny spells but also blustery showers. These could be heavy and thundery at times, with snow over northern hills. Friday should have more sunshine and fewer showers, before further rain follows from the west. It is also likely to be windy at times, with gales in the northwest. The weekend through to the middle of April is expected to continue unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. There are indications that some longer drier and brighter spells could occur in the northwest. Temperatures through the period are likely to start rather cold with a risk of overnight frost. Temperatures may return to near normal through next weekend, with perhaps some warmer spells at times.

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Apr 2016 to Sunday 1 May 2016:

The forecast is very uncertain through the second half of April. The most likely scenario is for changeable conditions with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, or longer spells of rain. Some drier spells are also likely, the best of which probably occurring in the northwest. Overall temperatures will remain around normal for the time of year but with some warmer spells developing at times.

Warmth needed for growing at the end of the month, the rain will not go amiss. 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Apr 2016 to Sunday 17 Apr 2016:

A generally fine day on Friday with plenty of sunshine but also scattered showers, some of which could be heavy and thundery, with a chance of snow over northern hills. Thicker cloud likely in the southwest later, with rain and strengthening winds possible. Northern areas will see sunshine and showers through the weekend, while the south looks to be cloudier with spells of rain. A largely unsettled trend is expected to continue through to mid-April, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes, with the best of these probably in the north and northwest. Temperatures are likely to start rather cold with a risk of overnight frosts, but returning nearer normal through the period, perhaps with some warmer spells at times.

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Apr 2016 to Monday 2 May 2016:

The detail in the forecast through the second half of April and into May is currently uncertain. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of changeable conditions, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers or longer spells of rain. Some more prolonged sunnier and drier periods are possible, the best of which will probably occur in the northwest. Overall temperatures will remain around normal for the time of year but with some warmer spells developing at times.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Monday 4 April—Sunday 10 April
Showery and turning cooler.

The weekend just passed brought a mixed bag of weather conditions, with a cool and wet theme dominating across western and northern areas of the UK. Further to the southeast though, we saw plenty of warm sunshine, with Gravesend in Kent reaching 17 Celsius, the highest temperature recorded in England so far this year. There were plenty of heavy showers around across all parts though, and as is usually the case in April, showers will be in the script for this week's weather.

Monday will begin on a cloudy note for all, with some persistent rain across eastern parts of Northern Ireland, much of Scotland and some parts of west Wales and the far northwest England. Skies should brighten across southern Scotland through the day though, allowing for a mix of sunshine and showers to develop. Elsewhere, the developing theme will very much be one of sunshine and some heavy, slow moving showers. The showers could be thundery at times, and look likely to drift into central areas as the day progresses, with the Midlands most at risk of seeing bright spells interrupted by some heavy downpours.

By Tuesday, the persistent rain across northern parts of the UK will have cleared away. leaving all parts with a relative bright day, but again there will be the threat of a few showers.

Through Wednesday a weather front will race in from the northwest, bringing a spell of rain to all areas. The passage of this weather front will open the door to a chilly northwesterly wind, that will drive in a further rash of showers to all parts. In between the showers though, there will be some sunny spells. Winds will be strongest in the far northwest, where conditions will feel decidedly cool. Similar conditions will prevail on Thursday, and by Friday the chilly wind should ease significantly, with some drier conditions for all but the far west.

An Atlantic weather system is likely to slide across southwestern areas through the weekend though eastern parts may escape the rain, staying largely dry with just the odd shower.

Monday 11 April—Sunday 17 April
April might just have a blocking high of its own

As we move into the middle of April, there is a growing degree of uncertainty in the forecast. However, at time of issue, the latest forecast information does suggest an increasingly buckled jet stream in the vicinity of the UK. This set up lends itself to the idea of a high developing somewhere to the east of the UK, and the vast majority of the forecasting models hold a spiraling, slow moving area of low pressure just to the southwest of the UK. In this scenario, the wettest and windiest weather is likely to be across southwestern and western areas of the UK, with a likely predominance of drier and brighter weather across Scotland and northern England. There are likely to be some chilly nights with the risk of frost, and daytime highs will probably be around about average for much of the time. However, if a southeasterly breeze develops, though some eastern coasts may turn a little murkier as a result, this set-up might permit some warmer conditions across inland eastern parts of the UK at times. We await further forecast information with interest!

Monday 18 April—Sunday 24 April
Signs of a prolonged warmer spell?

The longer range forecast comes with the usual nod towards the increased level of uncertainty inherent for forecasts looking this far into the future. It's of course true to say that by the end of April, the sun is really starting to become more powerful across the northern hemisphere, so any clear spells during the day are likely to lead to some pleasant spring warmth. With this in mind though, unfortunately at this stage it looks likely that conditions will probably stay on the changeable side, with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with quieter interludes that could give some warmer periods, but not necessarily that prolonged. Such a setup is fairly typical for April. We'll no doubt firm up on these details next week.

Next week

The April showers element of the old saying looks like it will happen, but what about the May flowers? Make sure you read next week's issue to find out!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Apr 2016 to Monday 18 Apr 2016:

There will be sunny periods and scattered showers across northern areas through the weekend, but southern parts will be cloudier with more in the way of showers or longer spells of rain, although some brighter intervals possible here too. This largely unsettled trend is expected to continue beyond mid-April, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. The best of the sunnier weather will probably be in the north and northwest, whereas the southeast sees an increasing risk of thunder. It will be windy at times, especially in the southwest where there is a risk of gales. Temperatures starting rather cold with a risk of overnight frosts, but returning nearer normal through the period, perhaps with some warmer spells at times.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Apr 2016 to Tuesday 3 May 2016:

The detail in the forecast through the latter part of April and into May is currently uncertain. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of changeable conditions, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers or longer spells of rain. Some more prolonged sunnier and drier periods are possible, the best of which will probably occur in the north and northwest. Overall temperatures will remain around normal for the time of year, with some warmer spells developing at times, but still a chance of overnight frosts, most likely in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Apr 2016 to Tuesday 19 Apr 2016:

A generally unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain likely to affect most of the country. These showers could be heavy at times with a risk of thunder, mixed with some drier interludes, but possibly with some hill snow in the north. As we move into the following week, the pattern of sunshine and occasionally heavy showers will continue, but with the northwest seeing the better of any drier spells. Winds will generally be moderate throughout, but strong along exposed coasts with a risk of gales in the southwest. Temperatures are likely to start below average, rising to around average through the week, possibly reaching slightly above normal in the south east by the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Apr 2016 to Wednesday 4 May 2016:

The unsettled conditions are expected to continue into late April, with showers or longer periods of rain, mixed with drier, brighter periods. Towards May the bias towards better weather may move from favouring northwestern parts, to instead favouring more southeast areas. Winds should be generally moderate, but with a chance of some gales in exposure, mainly in the west or northwest. Temperatures should be around or just above normal, especially in the south and southeast in any drier interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Apr 2016 to Wednesday 20 Apr 2016:

A generally unsettled start to the period, with showers or longer spells of rain likely to affect most of the country. These showers could be heavy at times with a risk of thunder, mixed with some drier interludes, but possibly with some hill snow in the north. As we move into the following week, the pattern of sunshine and occasionally heavy showers will continue, but with the northwest seeing the better of any drier spells. Winds will generally be moderate throughout, but strong along exposed coasts with a risk of gales in the southwest. Temperatures are likely to start below average, rising to around average through the week, possibly reaching slightly above normal in the south east by the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Apr 2016 to Wednesday 4 May 2016:

The unsettled conditions are expected to continue into late April, with showers or longer periods of rain, mixed with drier, brighter periods. Towards May the bias towards better weather may move from favouring northwestern parts, to instead favouring more southeast areas. Winds should be generally moderate, but with a chance of some gales in exposure, mainly in the west or northwest. Temperatures should be around or just above normal, especially in the south and southeast in any drier interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Apr 2016 to Thursday 21 Apr 2016:

A generally unsettled period, with showers or longer spells of rain likely to affect most of the country with strong winds at times. The showers could be heavy at times with a risk of thunder and possibily some hill snow in the north. There will also be some drier interludes, with the best of these perhaps in the far north at first, although southeastern areas may become more favoured later in the period. Temperatures are likely to vary quite widely given the changeable weather, although overall are likely to range from rather cold in the far north and northeast, to rather warm at times in the south especially southeast, although it will feel cold in all areas at times during periods of strong winds and heavier rain.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Apr 2016 to Thursday 5 May 2016:

The somewhat unsettled conditions will probably continue with showers or longer periods of rain, mixed with drier, brighter periods. The bias towards better weather probably favouring southeastern areas at first, although there may be a shift into late April with a signal for drier conditions in the northwest, although with somewhat wetter than average conditions likely to continue on the whole through into May. Winds should be generally moderate, but with a chance of some gales in exposure, mainly in the west or northwest. Temperatures are very uncertain with marked day to day variation probably averaging out.

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Apr 2016 to Friday 22 Apr 2016:

An unsettled period for most with many areas likely to see showers or longer spells of rain. These are expected to be heavy at times with a risk of hail and thunder, and maybe some snow over northern hills. There should also be some drier interludes, with the far north expected to see the best of these. Winds are likely to be strongest in the north at first with gales possible, but will vary markedly with both light and strong winds possible at times anywhere. A wide variation in temperatures is expected, predominantly warmer than average in the south, to rather cold in the north, although feeling chilly anywhere in periods of rain and strong winds.


UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Apr 2016 to Saturday 7 May 2016:

Late April is likely to see unsettled conditions continue with a pattern of wet and windy weather for most, mixed with drier and brighter interludes, the best of any drier conditions likely to be in the northwest. As we move into early May, there is very low confidence that pressure could build from the south, bringing drier, more settled conditions. Temperatures are expected to be around normal for the time of year, but with marked day to day variations.

Are the BBC underplaying todays convective activity, despite the cold air aloft, they don't seem to show many showers for the majority of England today on their TV charts?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Apr 2016 to Saturday 23 Apr 2016:

The middle part of April looks likely to be unsettled, with most areas experiencing either showers or longer spells of rain. These should be heavy at times with a risk of hail and thunder, and there will probably be some snow over northern hills. There will also be some drier, brighter interludes, with the north and northwest of Scotland expected to see the best of these, especially during the first few days. A wide variation is expected in the temperature. In general it should be mostly colder than average in the north but often rather warm in the south, and in the southeast in particular. However, it will feel chilly anywhere in periods of rain, especially if the wind is strong too. Occasional night frosts are likely in the north.

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Apr 2016 to Sunday 8 May 2016:

There is currently a large degree of uncertainty regarding the weather during the latter part of April and the first week of May. The latest indications are that to start off with we are most likely to experience a continuation of unsettled weather, with generally wetter than average conditions, and probably also large variations in temperature. However there are signs that pressure may gradually start to build across southern areas, which could lead to increasingly settled weather here.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Apr 2016 to Sunday 24 Apr 2016:

Up to and including the first weekend we are currently expecting a north to northeasterly airflow across the British Isles. Southern England should have the cloudiest conditions at first, probably with occasional rain, whereas central and northern parts are more likely to be brighter with a few showers, wintry on higher ground. It should feel pleasant during the afternoons in any sunshine, but overnight frosts are likely in central and northern areas. Then as we head into the week beginning 18th April the latest indications are that the main airflow direction will gradually swing round to become more southeasterly. This would give warmer temperatures, with a reasonable amount of dry, bright weather in northern areas, but with the likelihood of rain or heavy showers, perhaps thundery, moving across southern parts.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Apr 2016 to Monday 9 May 2016:

There is currently a large degree of uncertainty regarding the weather during the latter part of April and the first part of May. The latest indications are that during the last week of April conditions will probably be mixed, with both bright and settled weather and also some rain or showers at times, and also with some large variations in the temperature. In early May there is currently no strong signal for what sort of weather type will hold sway across the British Isles, although mostly dry conditions may begin to predominate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Monday 11 April—Sunday 17 April
A north/south divide initially, then cooler.

The week will begin on a fairly dry and bright note across Scotland and northern and eastern England. Further to the west and southwest, a weather front will bring rain across Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England and also parts of The Midlands at times. This weather front will play an important role in the week's weather, marking the boundary between milder, showery weather to its south, and cooler and generally drier conditions to its north.

Through Monday and overnight into Tuesday, the weather front will slowly drift north so that by Tuesday morning, the front will lie across northern England, Northern Ireland and southern parts of Scotland. Across northern Scotland, expect some good spells of sunshine, but with a chilly feel and the risk of a few wintry showers from time to time. Near the weather front, skies will be cloudier with the possibility of some prolonged spells of rain, and a cool feel. South of the frontal zone, there will be the potential for some warm spells of sunshine, but these will be interrupted by some heavy and thundery showers at times.

During the course of Wednesday and Thursday the weather front will slowly drift south whilst simultaneously becoming weaker. This process will allow generally drier, brighter and cooler conditions to push down from the north across most areas, with only occasional showers. Across southern areas though, the weather front will likely become stalled with wetter and milder conditions persisting across the far south of England and possibly the fringes of southern Wales.

The weekend will likely begin on a chilly note with high pressure to the northwest of the UK resulting in a cool and largely dry northerly air stream across the UK. However, as the weekend progresses, low pressure should slowly encroach from the southwest, gradually reintroducing showery and milder conditions to all parts of the UK by early the following week.

Monday 18 April—Sunday 24 April
Low pressure becoming re-established.

Moving into the start of third full week of April, it looks likely that the meteorological set up in the vicinity of the UK will consist of a region of high pressure extending from the north across most parts of the UK, and a low pressure system anchored just to the southwest. This will mean that the week will start off on a cool note, with some particularly chilly nights that will likely bring frost to many rural parts. By day though, there should be plenty of dry weather across central and northern parts, with some good spells of sunshine across western areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland in particular. Further to the south though, areas of rain and heavy showers will never be too far away as the low pressure system lies just to the southwest. Although there is some uncertainty in the forecast for the remainder of the period, at time of writing the favoured scenario was for the low pressure system to gradually move northeastwards across the UK. The outcome of such a set up will be to re-introduce warmer to air to most parts of the UK, but with the milder air will come the risk of heavy and potentially thundery showers moving up from the south to affect many parts at times.

Monday 25 April—Sunday 8 May
Drier with some late April warmth, perhaps?

The forecast for late April and early May exhibits an unusually high degree of uncertainty, even for a longer range forecast. That said, initially we anticipate a continuation of the showery theme affecting most parts of the UK, with the potential for some warmer spells, particularly across the southeast of England. As the period progresses, there are indications from some of the computer models that pressure will begin to build again across the UK. Such a scenario would lead to drier than average conditions across many areas, and offers at least the prospect of some warmth as the sun becomes increasingly powerful moving into early May.

Next week

Looking further ahead into May, there is currently very little consensus between the different forecasting models for the type of weather we can expect in the UK. That said, there is a marginal preference for pressure to remain relatively high near the UK, so there is the chance that drier weather will prevail, and with the Sun becoming increasingly strong, there is at least the scope for some warmer weather. Read next week's issue to find out more!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Apr 2016 to Monday 25 Apr 2016:

Initially it will be rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain across southern parts, whilst further north it should be brighter with a few showers. Brighter conditions are likely to spread to southern areas through the course of the weekend. It should feel pleasant during the afternoons in any sunshine, but overnight frosts are likely in central and northern areas. As we head into the new working week the main airflow direction should swing round to become more southeasterly. This would give warmer temperatures, with a reasonable amount of dry, bright weather, but also with some rain or heavy showers, perhaps thundery, affecting southwestern or western areas at times. Drier and more settled conditions may become predominant by the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Apr 2016 to Tuesday 10 May 2016:

There is currently a large degree of uncertainty regarding the weather during the latter part of April and the first part of May. Drier and settled weather may dominate initially, but by the end of April and into early May, conditions will probably be mixed, with both periods of bright and settled weather and also some rain or showers. There are likely to be some large variations in the temperature.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Apr 2016 to Tuesday 26 Apr 2016:

For Sunday and Monday it looks as if low pressure will give southern parts of England and Wales showery bursts of rain at times, whilst further north high pressure is more likely to give predominantly dry and sunnier weather. Generally feeling on the cool side across all parts, with a likelihood of overnight frost and fog patches across central and northern areas. High pressure is then expected to dominate for much of the remaining period, bringing a good deal of dry and settled weather, albeit rather breezy at times. Showery rain may move up from the near continent to affect southern England at times, and the odd shower may develop locally elsewhere. Temperatures generally around average, but with some chilly and potentially frosty nights, especially in the north.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Apr 2016 to Wednesday 11 May 2016:

Signals are very mixed and weak through this period, giving very low confidence in the forecast at this stage. Such signals that there are suggest the best of the weather in the south and southeast, and more unsettled conditions towards the north and northwest.

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Apr 2016 to Wednesday 27 Apr 2016:

For the first week of this period, high pressure is expected to remain centred to the west of the United Kingdom. This should bring a good deal of dry and settled weather, with variable amounts of cloud, although it is expected to be rather breezy at times. A few showers are likely at times, though these mostly towards the north of the country. On the whole it is expected to be rather cool throughout next week, with the potential for ground frost continuing where skies are clear overnight. Beyond next weekend, more unsettled conditions may develop with more in the way of rain, although signals are very mixed such that this change carries low confidence.

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Apr 2016 to Thursday 12 May 2016:

Signals are very mixed through this period, giving very low confidence in the forecast at this stage. Such signals that there are suggest the best of the weather in the south and southeast, and more unsettled conditions towards the north and northwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Apr 2016 to Thursday 28 Apr 2016:

High pressure will continue to dominate the United Kingdom during the middle of next week. This should bring a good deal of dry and settled weather, with variable amounts of cloud, although it is expected to be rather breezy at times in the south. A few showers are possible, with a risk of these being heavy and thundery across southern parts at times. Temperatures will be generally near normal during day time although over night frosts are possible where skies clear. Into next weekend there may be a trend to increasingly changeable weather as rather cool conditions develop. This will bring more in the way of rain, although signals are very mixed such that this change carries low confidence.

UK Outlook for Friday 29 Apr 2016 to Friday 13 May 2016:

Changeable conditions look set to persist for the end of April with showery, breezy and rather cool conditions for most. As we enter May, there is a weak signal for drier conditions to dominate although some rain is possible at times. Towards mid-May there is a mixed outlook with rain at times interspersed with drier brighter conditions and temperatures remaining near normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Apr 2016 to Friday 29 Apr 2016:

High pressure will continue to dominate much of the UK during the middle of next week. This should bring a good deal of dry and settled weather, with variable amounts of cloud, although the far northwest always at risk of seeing some showers. Pleasantly warm at times but with chilly nights. An area of showery rain may move across southern England, perhaps turning heavy and thundery at times with a stiff easterly breeze, although there is currently low confidence regarding the detail of this. Into next weekend and the following week cold northerly winds are expected to bring a mixture of sunny spells and showers, the showers most frequent in the north and east with these wintry at times. It will become generally cold with overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 Apr 2016 to Saturday 14 May 2016:

Following often bright, showery and cold conditions at the end of April with occasional night frosts there is a signal for drier than normal conditions to dominate during the start of May although some rain is possible on occasions with temperatures still below average. Towards mid-May there are no strong signals, although a mixed outlook is most likely with rain at times interspersed with drier brighter conditions and temperatures near normal overall.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Apr 2016 to Saturday 30 Apr 2016:

Dry and settled across most of the country at first on Thursday, with plenty of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Showery rain in the southwest, which could turn heavy and thundery at times, is likely to push northeast with a fresh easterly breeze. This is expected to continue pushing northeast through Friday although there is uncertainty in the northward reach of the rain. Temperatures initially near normal, perhaps warmer in the far south, but with chilly nights. Through next weekend and into the following week a brisk cool northerly flow is likely to develop, bringing a period of sunshine and showers. The showers are expected to be heaviest in the north and east, possibly organised and wintry at times. Turning generally cold through this period with overnight frosts.

Longer range update still to arrive at the time of posting

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Apr 2016 to Sunday 1 May 2016:

Friday sees rain in the south pushing north for a time, maybe reaching central parts before slowly clearing, though temperatures should be around normal. Further north a cold airflow is expected to become established, bringing showers or longer spells of rain, with snow over higher ground. Wintriness is also possible down to low levels in the far north, along with some gales. The cold conditions are expected to spread to all areas through next weekend and into the start of the following week, bringing periods of sunshine, showers and longer spells of rain, these turning wintry at times. The cold, unsettled conditions are then expected to persist through to the start of May, with rain or showers turning wintry over most parts and widespread overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Monday 2 May 2016 to Monday 16 May 2016:

May is expected to start cold, with a northerly flow bringing sunshine and showers, with some of these turning occasionally wintry, especially in the north, along with widespread overnight frosts. As we move into the second week of the month, there is a slight signal for more settled conditions, with temperatures possibly moving towards average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

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