With exceptions to Scottish highland whats so special about that chart??  Above average temperatures for a good deal of lowland England.

I can see your point Steve seems more obvious when you look in panel mode VVVVV,but as Jacko said lets see if its maintained.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=com&mode=0&sort=0

I don't want to drag this thread off topic, but they are not above average temperatures for lowland England!  Again your IMBYism comes to haunt you! 

Meto/Beeb not exactly backing the latest stunning ecm but maybe some snow midweek?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35618149

 Indeed. There was no need for that response in reply to the chart I posted. Anyway there's not much change in the outlook on the 18z GFS op run for the next few days.

Unsurprising really as it is just one run, but their extended 15 day outlook points to below average temperatures as the dominant signal. ECM is very lovely though 

They are night temps, and from Birmingham south those temps are largely above average.. As much as id like it, my back yard certainly doesn't encompass that much land.. 😂 

From IF

The new parallel (HRes) EC is repeatedly verifying best of all suites lately and albeit running the trend at base of clusters (plume below, 12z, Reading), it nonetheless matches well the colder transition in the sister EC Op. The EC snow signal (by T+210 across much of UK away from the SE, S coast and SW peninsula) is, of course, highly unreliable at this range anyway so not worth posting here. And thus by definition, anything shown by GFS at that range is even *more* unreliable, but that's an old and now wearying story.

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_02/Screenshot_2016-02-19-22-58-22-1.thumb.png.0d1555fce052bee86232f241c966e740.png

Too right sriram, for those expecting a cold snowy spell all I can say is good luck! 

With high SST's it's more likely to be more cold rain with the odd spell of wet snow during the next two weeks, below average temperatures yes but a cold, snowy spell No.

Andy

So, on the face of it, one is potentially sh.it and one is potentially even more sh.it.

I ordered the Scandi trough for the coming new week

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/ECMOPEU00_72_1.png

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

Blimey! Could we finally get some Bjorli pics after that? I've been awaiting your snow-laden shots for months, Mike! 

Sorry Nick - just lost my oomph for posting pics  I do have my Bjorli FB page but I will definitely get some on here.

The Atlantic goes quiet and so does this thread. I guess it is sods law that there is no real cold to tap into with some of the charts being thrown out in the longer term.

IF's response to this post

In fact the more likely pattern change is the Azores being displaced east for a while, into a Euro high and the UK settling down under a positive heights anomaly. The GEFS at D16 hinting at this and CFS on board week 3 and 4:

WAS

.in total contrast to the output from both GloSea5 and EC Monthly, which agree on a cyclonic theme throughout March, generally well-amplified/potentially blocked and with flow between NW-N and occasionally NE'ly. 

Me too , pics of 12" of snow arent worth posting at the minute , eh Mile

disappointing downgrades this morning with the positioning of the Icelandic shortwave, and the UK staying on the mild side of the jet

NAVGEM is the evolution we need

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2016022000/navgem-0-144.png?20-06

Quite a cool at times cold spell coming from 23rd onwards

A set up we crave for.....................but no real cold to grab on to

 Got a link to the Jet Stream charts that back up your post as I have just looked at the GFS ones and it shows the UK to the north of the Jet for much of the run? 

Not a warm outlook although it looks like a springlike weekend for the south if it stays dry 

Beyond that cool and largely unsettled.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_36_uk2mtmp.png?cb=957

14 or 15C at midday tomorrow will feel rather nice.

Um, yeah - if you get out of the 40 MPH gusts it might!

From IF

Snow signal Tues (as alluded to by Nick and others) is now stronger in 00z EC through M4 corridor. I've yet to see UKMO-GM fields. 

Now hold on a minute ECM, I was talking about March not the end of February! 

Some pretty extreme goings on with this low so worth giving it a few more runs in case we see better alignment to instead bring across some of that cold air from the E/NE. GFS has a go around day 10 prior to the usual 'FI reset' that seems to be occurring in force these days.