BBC monthly outlook
Monday 2 May—Sunday 8 May
Some signs of summer!?
On Monday, the south east will start off on a damp note as rain moves south-eastwards. Behind the rain there will be sunshine and scattered showers but the showers will be mainly focused across the western half of the UK. We'll see sunny spells and some further showers during Tuesday and Wednesday and, as our winds will be westerly, we will see day on day improvement in temperatures. A mainly dry day on Thursday with temperatures approaching the mid-teens in the north and near twenties in the south, although Northern Ireland and the far north west of Scotland will be breezier with patchy rain. Dry and warmer for much of the UK on Friday as our winds start to become southerly. This will draw warmer air from the continent and and while most of the country will see temperatures in the mid-teens, the south may see temperatures closer to twenty Celsius. As we head into next weekend, the southerly influence will mean there is a risk of drawing thundery showers across the southern half of the UK. There is still a lot of model discrepancy as to what will happen across the northern half of the UK, but, at the time of writing, it looks there will be the risk of showers continuing to travel northwards.
Monday 9 May—Sunday 15 May
Have we finally said farewell to winter?
As we head into the second week of May, our computers models are emerging with a pattern of south or south-easterly wind direction. This can lead to quite a varied weather pattern from unsettled with showers and rain to dry and fine conditions. What this wind direction also indicates is that there will be rather warm conditions in the south at times, with this warmer air sometimes extending northwards across the rest of the UK.
Monday 16 May—Sunday 29 May
A northwest / southeast split?
Towards the end of May it is no surprise to know at this extended range there is quite a variety of weather patterns emerging from the various computer models. At this stage, the dominant wind direction is expected to be from the west or southwest, which would indicate lower pressure to the north and west of the UK and higher pressure to the south and east of the UK, the latter being where we are most likely to see the driest and at times warmest conditions.
Next week
So will this signal for a divide continue as we head into summer?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook