It's marginal - the precipitation changes every run as you know: - The last chance for excitement before winter is over!

You have a right to be very good agreement of a easterly of soughts from all its members at t144 just a question how cold if gfs is to be believed

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=144

Here is the synoptic situation for the GFS 12Z by saturday

Note the black lines are troughs, I haven't added them until now because they are really hard in my opinion. Anyway this is my best estimate of the synoptic situation.

An occluded front lies across the SW through parts of Ireland, it is likely that this will give some rather substantial snow in the later case and possibly the former case though snow in cornwall is so rare that I wouldn't bank on it.

Not much use for the rest of us, the whole thing is just so far west.

And drifting in the strong wind across Bodmin we don't need massive cold uppers from that e ese air would be quite dry also off not the correction axis of the chart to be considered

Q

If marginal why would J H say heads up for snow ( forecast seen over the weekend), surely the only doubt would be if the ppn got far enough inland as opposed it being cold enough ?

Just a question

Usual jam tomorrow GFS precipitation charts!

I don't think temperature comes into this at all, rather intensity is the important variable. If its an eratic, broken up, fragmented feature it will probably be rain. If there is any energy in it I can almost guarantee it will be snow. 

-7c/-8c 850s in an easterly won't be far off snow. Models won't pick up ppn until 24/48hrs but I'd be amazed if that was a dry chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

gooner it's now Monday eve that weekend forecast is ancient history😋 

mid April surely.....2017 😀

I'm backing the pure ECM solution; it looks the least contrived out of all of them (not that I am happy about it).

I didnt think you would be able to answer that question

Thanks for reminding me of the day of the week though....................quite impressive

FYI The depth of cold forecasted to come across our shores hasnt really changed ( since yesterday ) but the ? over ppn has always been near.

Thanks for the reply though.

ARPEGE epitomizes everything that could go wrong

Occluded front decays and leaves debris in its wake; cloudy, cold and drizzly but not snowy

Honestly I'm not seeing any likely significant snow. The conditions are not right for good lake effect conditions (see earlier post), and the fronts all seem to have myalgic encephalopathy.

I didnt think you would be able to answer that question

Thanks for reminding me of the day of the week though....................quite impressive

FYI The depth of cold forecasted to come across our shores hasnt really changed ( since yesterday ) but the ? over ppn has always been near.

Thanks for the reply though.

Not the most pleasant ens to take us in to spring, if it's early warmth your after.

It does also highlight that without colder air, day time temps will still be in the middle single figures - anything that does fall out of the sky will need to do so early or late if you want wintriness

As you'd expect a somewhat colder picture further North, with slightly colder uppers and less impact from the sun:-

So realistically - what are the chances of the SW seeing any sleet even this weekend?? Anyone?  

Interesting how expectations vary. To me it's just the wrong side of marginal for most of the South and predictions are being managed accordingly. 

The GFS control looks quite chilly though.

Through to 384 looking at it

Yes, that's been my view for several days now - cold enough this week when there's precious little in the way of moisture (away from favoured windward coastal areas) and then the wrong side of marginal and/or low pressure too far away come the weekend.

Some nice coldish crisp days and frosty nights will at least make for a seasonal end to winter but that's all I'm expecting.  Beyond that the increasing warmth of the sun and daytime exceeding nighttime for the first time since early autumn.

Just to add my interpretation of the models - cold and bright for most, the odd wintry shower on prone coasts,and, as the moisture quotient increases, the temperature increases in at least the same proportion, keeping things either damp and raw or cold and bright, and frosty by night.