Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 12 May 2016 to Saturday 21 May 2016:

Cloudy in the south on Thursday with showers or longer spells of rain. Further north it should be mainly dry with sunny spells but also cooler. The fine but cooler weather in the north should develop across all parts by Friday. Mainly dry and settled weather is then likely to continue through to mid May across all parts, although some rain or showers could occur in the northwest later. After the mid month, it is likely that there will be a marked change to unsettled weather across all parts, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest and most persistent rain probably occurring in the northwest. Temperatures above average at first, locally warm in the southwest, but returning to near normal.

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 May 2016 to Sunday 5 Jun 2016:

All parts are likely to start this period unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter periods. The rain probably being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west. Towards the end of May and for the start of June there is some uncertainty, but the most likely scenario is for more settled conditions, initially in the southeast, to develop across all parts. Temperatures at first are expected to be near or a little below average, but these should recover to near or above average as fine weather become established.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 13 May 2016 to Sunday 22 May 2016:

A rather cool end to the week with much of the UK remaining dry with bright or sunny spells. There may be some showery rain, mainly across central and southwestern parts, but this generally light. The largely dry and settled weather is then likely to continue through the weekend across most parts, although some showers are possible, mostly around northern and eastern coasts, and it will stay cooler than the previous week. By the end of the period northwestern parts are likely to see a return to more changeable conditions, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes. Meanwhile the southeast will hold onto the generally dry and fine conditions. Temperatures near or below average at first, but trending upwards through the week.

UK Outlook for Monday 23 May 2016 to Monday 6 Jun 2016:

Conditions for the rest of May are likely to remain similar with northwestern UK continuing to see the changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain, although some drier and brighter periods are expected as well. Southeastern parts will see more in the way of dry and bright conditions, though some rain is possible here too. By the end of May and as we head into June, there are uncertainties regarding the details in conditions, however we could see the more settled conditions over the southeast spreading across all parts of the UK. Temperatures at first are expected to be near average, but these should trend upwards and could become above average by the end of May.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 9 May—Sunday 15 May
Cooling down, but staying fine in the northwest

Monday will see the fine and mostly warm weather continuing over most of the UK, with plenty of sunshine, although eastern counties will be cooler with an onshore wind and patchy low cloud at first. Southern England will become cloudier with outbreaks of rain, locally thundery. On Tuesday and Wednesday these outbreaks of rain, heavy in places, will extend into parts of Wales and the Midlands too, while northern Britain stays dry with plenty of sunshine.

For Thursday and Friday, much of England and Wales will be rather cloudy, but with some brighter areas, and scattered outbreaks of rain will slowly die out. Scotland and Northern Ireland will turn more cloudy and cooler but with no more than a few light showers. Next weekend should be dry but quite cool in most areas, with the north to northeast breeze particularly chilly on the east coast. They'll be patchy cloud and some sunshine, and no more than a few light showers.

Monday 16 May—Sunday 22 May
Bright and often dry - but count on a few showers

The middle of May will see a lot of dry and bright weather, with all areas seeing some sunshine. On some days the cloud will build to give some showers, these perhaps more likely in the north and east at first. However, there's no sign of any heavy rain or strong winds. With winds largely from between west and north, we're unlikely to see a return to warm weather either, so expect temperatures near normal for May.

Monday 23 May—Sunday 5 June
Mixed weather, then perhaps more settled again

Looking towards late May and the start of June, its only possible to talk in general terms. For this longer-range, computer models suggest that the weather will turn more unsettled for while; winds from the west are likely to bring a few bands of rain across the British Isles, most of the rain falling in the north and west, while there will be drier brighter intervals. Temperatures won't be far from normal during this spell. By the start of June there's a slightly higher probability that drier and more settled weather will return, at least to south-eastern areas, with the weather becoming warmer again.

Next week

First signs for the start of summer in the first half of June

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 14 May 2016 to Monday 23 May 2016:

This weekend and the start of next week will see a lot of fine and dry weather across the UK, although a few showers are likely at times, these mainly in northern and eastern areas. Cool northerly winds will give temperatures slightly below normal with overnight grass frost, however it should still feel pleasant in sheltered, sunnier spots. From the middle of next week onwards, a change to more unsettled conditions seems likely, especially in the north and west, where showers or longer spells of rain are expected. Further south and east, the mainly fine and dry conditions will continue, however even here some rain is possible. After a relatively cool start, temperatures will trend upwards through the period, rising to near or slightly above average through next week.

 

UK Outlook for Monday 23 May 2016 to Monday 6 Jun 2016:

Conditions for the rest of May are likely to remain similar with northwestern UK continuing to see the changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain, although some drier and brighter periods are expected as well. Southeastern parts will see more in the way of dry and bright conditions, though some rain is possible here too. By the end of May and as we head into June, there are uncertainties regarding the details in conditions, however we could see the more settled conditions over the southeast spreading across all parts of the UK. Temperatures at first are expected to be near average, but these should trend upwards and could become above average by the end of May.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 May 2016 to Tuesday 24 May 2016:

The end of the weekend and start of the week seeing plenty of fair and dry weather across the UK, with a risk of a few showers at times, mainly in northern and eastern parts. Cooler than of late in the northerly wind, with temperatures slightly below normal, though feeling pleasant in sheltered, sunnier spots and perhaps an overnight frost further north. From the middle of the week onwards, a change to more unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain in the north and west. Mostly fair and dry conditions continuing further south and east, though even here some rain is possible. Temperatures will trend upwards through the period, rising to near or above normal through the week.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 May 2016 to Wednesday 8 Jun 2016:

Late May will more likely see a continuation of changeable weather conditions across the UK. The most unsettled and wettest conditions are expected in the northwest, while the best of any drier and bright weather will be over the southeast. By the end of May and as we head into June, things are very uncertain regarding the type of weather across the country. However there are some signs that more settled conditions may become established across the south, then spreading north across all other parts. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal for all, though perhaps becoming warm in the south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Pretty poor predictions at even five days out looking at the previous page.

 

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We'll be on a cruise on the Danube next week, and I was appalled to see that the currently forecast northerly plunge goes all the way down into Romania with the 528 mb line almost down to the Danude itself next Wednesday. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx  At least, that's according to GFS - ECM isn't so extreme. Temperatures down to 15-18C midday, 8C below normal, not that the UK is forecast to do much better at that time. 

But given GFS' record in forecasting northerly plunges, perhaps I shouldn't worry.

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At this time of the year I normally find extreme lows often forecasted on GFS tend to moderate as the time comes closer.  That being said - this year has been a little different.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 16 May 2016 to Wednesday 25 May 2016:

Monday and Tuesday will see plenty of dry weather with some sunshine across much of the UK, but showers are possible in northern and western parts. Despite chilly nights, daytime temperatures will be close to average, meaning it will feel pleasant with just light winds. By midweek, a change to more unsettled and windier conditions is expected. Outbreaks of rain in the north and west initially, will extend to southern and eastern parts later in the week, but the most frequent and heaviest rain will still affect the northwest. Temperatures close to or a little above normal, meaning it will still feel pleasant in sunnier and drier interludes. There are indications that dry, fine and warmer weather could become more prevalent into the following week, but this is currently uncertain.

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 May 2016 to Thursday 9 Jun 2016:

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the weather type likely to affect the UK through this period, but there are some indications that dry and fine weather may prevail. Despite this, showers or outbreaks of rain, possibly thundery, would still be expected at times. Temperatures are generally indicated to be a little above average, but should prolonged settled spells develop, it would become warm.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

From the above, it doesn't seem as though any spells of prolonged unsettled weather are likely in the near future. Great stuff!

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 May 2016 to Thursday 26 May 2016:

After a fairly settled few days prior to this period, Tuesday will bring a change to more unsettled conditions across the UK that could last into the weekend, particularly in the north and west. Periods of rain and stronger winds will affect many northern and western parts, however there will also be some drier, brighter spells too. Further south and east, dry and bright weather will be more prevalent, however even here there will be some rain at times. Temperatures will be near average in most parts of the country. Into the following week, there are indications that dry, fine and warmer weather could become more widespread across the country, however there is currently low confidence in this aspect of the forecast.

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 May 2016 to Thursday 9 Jun 2016:

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the weather type likely to affect the UK through this period, but there are some indications that dry and fine weather may prevail. Despite this, showers or outbreaks of rain, possibly thundery, would still be expected at times. Temperatures are generally indicated to be a little above average, but should prolonged settled spells develop, it would become warm.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

"June  is busting out all over"... Hope it is anyway....

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 May 2016 to Friday 27 May 2016:

Unsettled weather is expected to affect the UK from the start of this period until at least the weekend. Bands of rain will move across the country from the west, interspersed by brief drier and brighter spells with a few showers. Some heavy rain is possible across the UK, but will be heaviest and most prevalent in the northwest, while southeastern parts will see the best of any dry and bright weather, particularly on Thursday. It could also be windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures will be near average at first, but it should gradually become warmer, particularly in the south and east. The forecast for the second week is very uncertain, but there is a chance of warmer, drier and more settled weather developing across many parts.

UK Outlook for Saturday 28 May 2016 to Saturday 11 Jun 2016:

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the conditions most likely to affect the UK through this period, but there are some indications that dry, fine and warm weather may prevail at first. Any fine weather looks as though it would be short lived as a change to more unsettled conditions is signalled. With this change in weather type, periods of rain can be expected, interspersed by some drier and bright spells with some showers. After a fairly warm start, temperatures would most likely revert to near average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 19 May 2016 to Saturday 28 May 2016:

An unsettled end to this week with bands of rain moving across the country, interspersed by brief drier and brighter spells, but still with some showers. The heaviest and most persistent rain will be in the west and perhaps south, accompanied by strong winds at times. Northern parts may see the best of any drier and brighter weather, but with showers still likely here. By Monday the 23rd some more settled conditions look to build into the south, with rain or showers becoming increasingly confined to the northwest in the following days. These conditions remaining until the start of the Bank Holiday weekend. Temperatures will often be near or a little below average, but should become warmer from the south later in the period.

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 May 2016 to Sunday 12 Jun 2016:

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the conditions most likely to affect the UK through this period, but the most likely scenario is currently that the generally dry, fine and warm weather should prevail into the start of June, especially in the south. However a change to more changeable conditions is signalled as we move further into June. Bands of rain or showers may spread in, perhaps most likely into southern and western parts, interspersed by drier and brighter periods. Temperatures are likely to stay near or above average in most parts, especially at first.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC Monthly outlook

Monday 16 May—Sunday 22 May
Dry at first, but wet and windy weather on the way

The working week will get off to a relatively quiet but chilly start. A ridge of high pressure positioned just to the west of the UK will allow winds to become light enough and skies to be clear enough for a touch of grass frost to form across some rural areas early on Monday. Temperatures will recover through the day though, and Monday will be a dry and bright day with the best of the sunshine across southwestern parts of the UK. The cloud will be just about be thick enough for a shower across northern Scotland and eastern coastal parts exposed to the North Sea, but even across these areas, most places will stay dry.

Another fairly chilly night will follow into Tuesday morning. For much of England and eastern parts of Scotland, Tuesday will be another relatively fine day though with dry and bright weather expected in the main. Further west, cloud will thicken on Tuesday afternoon as a band of rain moves in from the Atlantic.

Through the rest of Tuesday and into Wednesday, an Atlantic low will cross the UK, bringing wet conditions to most places for a time, with some strong winds across the south. Expect some heavy, thundery showers to form during Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday look similarly unsettled with further spells of wet and windy weather for most areas at times. Winds will always tend to be stronger in the south ,and decidedly cool air will never be far from the northern half of Scotland, where a mixture of sunshine and slow moving showers will be most likely.

Even into the weekend, current forecasts suggest that the jet stream will continue to push Atlantic low pressure systems our way, with some wet and windy conditions at times for most. The wet weather will temper the feel of the otherwise fairly average temperatures for the time of year.

Monday 23 May—Sunday 29 May
Just as you start to give up hope...

There is an unusual amount of uncertainty regarding the forecast for this period. However, after an initial spell involving a strong, westerly jet stream driving wet, windy and showery conditions across the UK is the most likely scenario suggested by our forecasting tools and models. Pressure is expected to rise across at least the southern-most parts of the UK as this period progresses. This means that as May draws to a close, any showery and cooler conditions are likely to be pushed further and further towards the northwest of the UK, with drier and warmer conditions moving in from the south. The extent to which the fairer conditions move north will likely remain the forecasting challenge if this forecast theme persists.

Monday 30 May—Sunday 12 June
Staying out for the summer? Perhaps for a start.

The climatological summer starts on 1st June. As is always the case with the longer term forecast, there a significant level of inherent uncertainty. That said, the latest forecast trends by the models lean towards the idea of a reasonably fine start to the month of June, with some relatively fine weather for many parts of the UK, but particularly across the south. Conditions also look as if they will be on the warmer side of average. As the month progresses though, the latest forecast suggestion is that the weather start encroaching from the west again, bringing the threat of some wetter and windier conditions at times. Of course, we will keep you up to date with the forecast for early summer over the coming days and weeks here at the BBC Weather Centre.

Next week

Next week we will firm up on some of the details for the end of May and the all-important start of summer!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 May 2016 to Tuesday 31 May 2016:

Generally unsettled conditions are expected through Sunday and much of next week. There will be outbreaks of rain, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes, but still with some showers. The heaviest and most persistent rain is likely to be in the northwest, accompanied by strong winds and perhaps coastal gales at times. Southeastern parts will see more lengthy drier and brighter spells, but even here showers or outbreaks of rain can be expected. It will be rather cool on Sunday, but temperatures will recover to near or above normal through next week, particularly in the southeast. The bank holiday weekend will most likely see a continuation of the theme described above, but there is a chance that much warmer weather may spread northwards across the UK.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Jun 2016 to Wednesday 15 Jun 2016:

There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the conditions that will affect the UK through this period, but the most likely scenario is currently that changeable weather will affect at least the northwest of the UK. In this scenario we would expect to see showers or outbreaks of rain, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes in the northwest. Across the southeast there would be more in the way of dry and bright weather, with just occasional outbreaks of rain or showers. Temperatures are expected to be near or above average, with the possibility of becoming warm or very warm at times, more especially in the southeast, but with the risk of thundery showers if this occurs.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvn15h9#?fcTime=1463529600