good agreement on a less cold period before a reload from the nw, perhaps this will deliver the cold uppers we need.

but the easterly before that may produce some wintry stuff for the east coast

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A cold but slack North to NW flow is blowing across the UK over the next 24-48hrs with showers near Northern, Eastern and later Western coasts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000-4000ft today North to South. Mostly dry weather for many with some wintry showers on the Scottish Mountains exposed to the North.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is looking like it will slip sharply South of the UK over the coming few days before it slowly migrates back north for a time and then settles on a NW to SE course either down across the UK or to the South and West by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of rather cold weather across the UK over the next few weeks. The weather on the ground will be changeable and although a lot of dry and benign weather with frosts at night occurs Low pressure sliding down to the South of the UK later this week and over the weekend could bring the threat of rain, sleet and hill snow for a time before High pressure pushes fine and frosty weather South across the UK for a time followed by stronger West then NW winds and a rinse and repeat type return to cold NE'lies later with further chances of rain and hill sleet or snow with further night frosts in places well into March.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today shows the pattern above with the only caveat shown being the better recovery of temperatures in Week 2 as a more mobile based Westerly pattern establishes with rain and showers at times in average temperatures most prolific towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today paint a very unsure outcome in two weeks time with a 50% group showing High pressure having overall control of the UK weather at that point positioned either across or just to the South of the UK whereas the remaining 50% support more Atlantic based weather under Low pressure over or to the North of the UK with rain or showers at times wintry on Northern hills. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack winds for the UK over the next few days with rather cold but mostly dry weather away from windward coasts where wintry showers occur. Later in the week the slack pressure gives way to a raw SE, East and then NE wind as Low pressure slips SE to the SW of the UK with the threat of dull and raw weather in the South with some rain or sleet for a time before a ridge of High pressure slips South over the UK towards the start of next week with fine and frosty weather looking likely for many by that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows a similar pattern to that supplied by the above raw data with a simplistic slack pattern gradually complicated by Low pressure sliding South to the SW of the UK late this week. It seems that any threat of precipitation from this is looking more and more likely to affect just far Southern and Western parts where it is conceivable a little sleet or snow could fall over the hills and moors there for a time but northern and eastern extent of this looks increasingly very limited.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows the same well worn pattern of rather cold weather with a keen east wind developing across the South later this week before winds back to the West and NW with rather cold and changeable weather developing next week with rain and showers for many and sleet or snow over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also takes Low pressure South to the SW of the UK later this week before it moves away East over Southern Europe backing winds from a chilly SE point through East and NE through the early days of next week with perhaps some wintry showers in the SE for a time. Then a weak ridge collapsing SE over the UK with fine and frosty weather for a short while before Atlantic West or NW winds develop and bring changeable and still rather cold weather to all parts by midweek next week. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of the rest with Low pressure sliding South into Biscay later this week and then exiting it away east over Europe filling as it goes. It's effects will be limited for the UK with an increase in the East wind at the end of the weekend the most noticeable feature rather than precipitation. The winds then back 180 degrees towards the West with wet and windy weather spreading across all areas next week followed by a cold North to NW flow with wintry showers later next week as a deep low pressure area lies to the NE of the UK by that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart continues to suggest chilly NW winds across the UK in 10 days time with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow under the influence of Low pressure over the North Sea and High pressure well to the SW and a Jet Stream well to the South and West of the UK too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a rather cold couple of weeks with a lot of dry weather to begin with before more unsettled conditions developing later in the period in a cold NW flow.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.9 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.7 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 54.4 pts to GFS's 53.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The models have changed little over the last 24 hours and in general the main theme for the next few weeks is mirrored again this morning from yesterday. Taking it piece by piece we have a couple of rather cold days and some jolly cold nights to come with sharp frosts. Sunny spells through the day will make things feel OK away from the Northern facing coasts where a few wintry showers are likely. Complications begin on Friday when Low pressure slides South and develops swinging winds back into a cold SE, East then NE direction across the South of the UK making it feel very raw. Further North the weather looks like staying cold, fine and frosty. There is also of course the chance that some precipitation attached to the fronts from this Low will edge up into the South for a time with just a risk of a little rain, sleet or snow but this looks both marginal and limited in spread at best. Then as we look through next week the High pressure ridge to the North will move South cutting off the NE feed and returning windier westerly winds to the North. these subsequently spread to all areas next week as pressure falls from the North with the weather deteriorating for all with wind and rain followed by cold NW winds and wintry showers to end next week. As we look to the far end of the forecast period by far the most likely options shown within the clusters and ensembles today maintains a rather cold theme with NW winds across the UK and no doubt some rain or wintry showers to be had for many.           

Next Update Wednesday February 24th 2016 from 09:00

Not too much to add from earlier comments.

Good consistency from ECM and GFS, with the former showing the latter's reload from the North West courtesy of LP moving SE along with renewed Atlantic ridging.

Cold enough for snow for some, but altitude likely to be a key factor, along with timing of any precipitation for others who might just see snow falling.

In the immediate though clear, chilly and sunny is the order of the day for many - I suspect it'll feel quite nice in the sun around the middle part of the day down here

Downgrade begins?

Looks good for here! 

GFS continues its slider tease.The Friday /Satu rday slide looks pretty dry although a number of ENS show a secondary LP further north.Still time for something to edge closer to SouthernEngland.

Beyonf d that GFS serves up another slider around 240h with accompanying snow ripe for downgrade. GFS =Gives False Snowfall