THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East and SE across the UK today followed by an increasingly cold and unstable Westerly flow with Wintry showery troughs moving SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK near 6000ft this morning will fall steadily across the UK later today and tonight to be nearer to 2000ft by tomorrow with plenty of snow showers over all high ground tomorrow settling in places above 1500ft asl.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Perhaps drier later. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is predicted to blow SE across the Atlantic and France over the coming week with a deep trough across the UK by next weekend with this pattern only slowly being replaced by a more undulating pattern on a more West to East axis and further North than currently later next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure to the North and East of the UK over the coming week with winds from between West and North for much of the time with spells of rain, sleet and snow plus some drier and brighter intervals. From about a week's time the axis of flow of depressions changes to a more to West to East axis close to the North of the UK so still plenty of rain or showers. It still looks rather cold at times but wintriness will become more confined to Northern hills, this theme enhancing further towards the end of the run as High pressure edges closer to the South and SE of the UK at times with milder air moving NE across the UK with rain in places more especially focused towards the North and West.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme follows a similar course as the Operational through the first week with a lot of chilly West or NW winds and wintry showers with snow on fairly modest hills nationwide at times. Then in Week 2 the pattern differs showing High pressure setting up shop over Europe with Low pressure over the Atlantic. In theory this could bring milder South or SW winds with rain at times for all but with High pressure over Europe engaging cold air on it's Southern flank implications from this or adjustments North of the pattern could change the overall theme to a colder one for the UK especially in the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today offer no real clues in the weather likely across the UK in two weeks time with an even split between High pressure or Low pressure based weather patterns a possibility for all parts of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning remains a chilly outlook as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK towards the end of the week and then edges only slowly away East from the UK through the weekend with a cold showery Northerly flow in it's wake giving way only slowly early next week to a ridge of cold High pressure moving into the UK from the NW. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a similar sequence of events as the raw data with complex Low pressure slipping SE across the UK over the next 3-4 days culminating in a cold and unstable Northerly flow over the weekend with wintry showers a risk for all.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK over the next 33-4 days with a complex mix of rain and showers falling as sleet or snow over the hills. Then unlike some of the other output release from this pattern is slow and arduous with cold Low pressure remaining close to the East or indeed over the UK before a slow push of High pressure down from the NW settles things down across the UK later next week last to reach the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is slow to clear the trough out of the UK too next week with it showing approaching midweek next week before the ridge of High pressure to the West and NW edges in sufficiently to settle the weather down across Britain to any large degree.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning follows the general theme too of cold and unsettled conditions under Low pressure to the East of the UK through the next 5-7 days with High pressure trying desperately to displace Low pressure as it moves slowly in from the West. So a messy mix of showers, wintry on hills and the increasing likelihood of frost at night as winds fall lighter the main theme as we move into next week with the run ending with High pressure over much of the UK with frosty nights alternating with dry, crisp and OK sort of days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models is well documented for this week as rather cold and unsettled conditions are projected by all models. The theme beyond that continues to suggest some influence of High pressure moving into the UK from the Atlantic next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 87.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.6 pts to 64.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has taken over the lead from ECM again with a score of 50.6 pts to 49.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Not much change in the theme from the models this morning from that shown yesterday with the main story being the late Winter synoptic pattern promoting what could be the first snowfall of Winter over the coming days for some parts of the South of the UK. The amounts of snowfall should not be alarmist though and could well be restricted to the night hours and over the hills for many. The pattern bringing this messy wintry mix of weather is Low pressure moving SE across the UK in two bands between now and the weekend each one bringing progressively colder air into the mix across the UK. Much of the precipitation will be showery in nature although Friday looks a day when something more interesting may develop across the UK as the second Low moves South over the UK with a wraparound of cold North or NE winds develop in it's wake. Then as we move into next week the main story evolves around how quickly and how much High pressure to the West of the UK displaces the cold Northerly flow over the UK at that time as it edges further East. It does look a slow and arduous process and it maybe towards the second half of next week before the general theme of dry and settled conditions look likely to replace the showery feed of early in the week. Frosts at night remain likely and daytime temperatures remain close to or a little below normal by then. I am using the ECM theory in these projections as I feel this is the most likely outcome of what's on offer this morning endorsed by the ECM Mean Chart of late which has remained fairly constant in this general theme in recent days. Alternatively GFS offers something a little less settled as High pressure slips further South with a milder Westerly flow across the UK in Week 2 but the model remains very fluid in it's projections longer term as does it's Clusters. So in a nutshell the 1st of March does not indicate too much in the way of early Spring conditions across the UK in the models today although what's on offer is a typical mix of conditions for March across the UK in the next few weeks.          

Next Update Wednesday March 2nd 2016 from 09:00

He's posting on netweather now as 'Banbury'.

Quote from J. Cohen's latest analysis

"With the PV moving bodily into the Eurasian continent, this is likely where the largest negative temperature departures are expected for the month of March. With the PV predicted to be displaced so far south across the Eurasian continent, easterly flow will become better established in the stratosphere across northern Eurasia over the next two weeks. This same circulation pattern should eventually become established in the troposphere as well.  Easterly flow across the continent will inhibit milder, maritime air from entering northern Eurasia through Europe and instead easterly flow will allow cold continental air from Siberia to become widespread.   SSW and a negative AO are most strongly related with below normal temperatures across Siberia and this relationship should hold for March.  Cold air from Siberia has flowed most easily into East Asia this winter and there is little reason to expect differently for the remainder of the winter season.  However with the PV or a lobe of the PV sitting directly over Europe, northerly and/or easterly flow is favored in the coming weeks and therefore the risk of continental/Arctic air finally making its way to Europe is increased in the coming weeks."

Update from Matt.

With MJO drifting into phase 8 and an imminent SSW expected by end of the opening week of March, coming weeks could be 'interesting'

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

I wouldn't get to comfortable with the idea that Spring is here just yet.

Im going to use words i havent used in a long while... as in years... as in maybe 3 or 4

Upgrade in the charts for tomorrows snow event.

Blimey... that felt very very odd.

I expect the deck of cards to come crashing down now.

Friday is another one to watch to.

Cold rain don't do it for me 

Pity it's not a touch colder, any accumulations of snow look unlikely away from high ground in the north/west

Except of course that the Met Office warning highlights the risk of snowfall on low ground in the areas you mention? 

Overall it looks like continuing to be cool and unsettled after today's milder blip. I wouldn't rule out snow in a few places, but nothing extreme and nothing very cold.

There does now seem to be cross model support for some rather warm air arriving in a week or so, GEM chart below for reference

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gem/240_mslp850.png?cb=560

Does anyone know if any of the models are taking into account the approaching SSW event? If not, should we be anticipating a sudden change in the model charts over the next few days? 

My own feeling is that any milder spells we get in the near future may prove to be merely transient ones, a bit like today's milder spell before it begins to turn colder from tomorrow.

This is the worst part for me with early spring as I like growing my chillies & toms 😊 

what if a massive block sets up somewhere in the region of west Russia East Finland, and we end up on the 'wrong/warm' side of things? Sod's law dictates this being the UK it'll set up over Greenland and ruin spring for us 😂

Better ! 

Another egg on the face long range forecast looking at that! 

We live in hope. Surely at least 3 consecutive dry and settled days is not too much to ask for. 

 If you're referring to the Met Office forecast they do mention the words settled dry and fine in their extended outlook, so I would have thought that would have tied in well with the SLP ensembles?

Plenty of that recently up here. We went 8 consecutive days with no rain at all from 22/02 to 29/02. Abundantly sunny too.

ECM 12z ensemble for London

Solid agreement across the ensemble mean, Op and GFS 12z Op of a cold week ahead. Beyond that whilst the Op and GFS Op show a marked trend to milder conditions the ensemble suite is quite evenly split between rather mild and a continuation of the colder conditions.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html