THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move SE across the North sea today with a complex trough structure attached to it moving SE across the UK today in a cold and very strong NW flow gradually weakening tonight and tomorrow as a new trough approaches the west from off the Atlantic by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will in general be around 2000ft but will change downwards towards sea level as squally wintry showers pass giving snowfall right down to sea level in the heaviest showers and settling snow possible above 1000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Perhaps drier later. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is blowing strongly SE or South across the UK and France and it remains moving South in this position for the coming three or four days weakening and buckling over the weekend as pressure builds in from the West. The flow then becomes much lighter and variable next week with the main emphasis supporting the flow wanting to remain South of the UK later in response to a pressure rise over Europe. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows cold weather for the UK in the next 7 days as depressions run SE across the UK in the next 48 hours and then more slowly away east over the weekend and start to next week maintaining a cold and Northerly source to the winds across the UK with sunshine and scattered wintry showers and eventual frosts at night. Another disturbance running South over western Britain at some point over the weekend threatens more general rain or snow for a time in the West before the ridge to the West and NW topples across the UK with a fine day or two before a change to SW winds and milder air for a time next week with rain at times especially in the North. Towards the end of the run pressure is High over Europe and Low pressure moves into the UK engaging with cold air across parts of Europe and from the NW meaning a return to complex and cold Low pressure across the UK with rain or snow in places in two weeks time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is almost identical to the Operational Run in Week 1 detailing a delay in the ridge moving in from the West now until towards the middle of next week so cold and unsettled weather is expected through this period. Then as the ridge finally moves across midweek it declines rapidly with a milder West or SW flow becoming established with rain or showers across the UK at times in the second week though this run demonstrates rather less cold conditions possible later when compared to the Operational Run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today again today offer no real clues in the weather likely across the UK in two weeks time with a very mixed pattern likely across the UK shown this morning  which could bring us mild or cold and wet or dry so these offer very few clues on what is likely.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to project a cold period of weather to come. As the Friday Low pressure slips away to the SE at the weekend it's slow clearance East makes for a cold North wind across the UK at the weekend with wintry showers and night frosts. Further disturbances in the flow could threaten further more prolonged rain r snow in places for a time before the ridge which is all the time to the West finally makes it's move into the UK by Tuesday with fine and frosty weather looking more likely with any showers then restricted to the far SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a close proximity to the raw data run this morning with cold and complex Low pressure type synoptics offering the heady mix of rain and snow in places with a cold northerly flow developing at the weekend as the Low pressure areas drift away towards the SE and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a slight extension to the cold synoptic pattern too this morning as low pressure moving SE over the UK on Friday is slow to clear East leaving a cold Northerly flow in it's wake with further disturbances running South in the flow enhancing wintry showers at times for some areas.as they pass. It's not until towards the middle of next week the ridge to the West collapses across the UK bringing drier and eventually much less cold weather later next week with WSW winds and rain at times especially in the North and West establishing itself by the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no true break in the cold or rather cold conditions at all in it's run today with the complex Northerly flow at the weekend and start to next week bringing plenty of wintry showers especially in coastal areas and a few longer spells of rain or snow too. A ridge of sorts does make inroads into the UK towards the middle of next week but troughs to the West running into it and disrupting in situ offer up more cold rain and hill snow in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning follows the general theme too of cold and unsettled conditions under Low pressure to the East of the UK through the next 5-7 days with High pressure trying desperately to displace Low pressure as it moves slowly in from the West finally doing so by the middle of next week with the cold Northerly feed displaced by strong and milder Westerly winds and unsettled conditions later next week as the more traditional UK pattern of High to the South and Low pressure to the North establishes. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart continues it's rock steady support for milder and well established SW winds and rain at times for all across the UK at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models shows cross model support for the next week before differences shown on the timing and extent of a change to milder Atlantic winds is indicated between the models and ensembles thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 63.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.6 pts to 48.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS I think the cold period we have just entered into is shown to persist a little longer from within this morning's model outputs. The low pressure area moving SE over the UK on Friday with it's cocktail of rain and snow followed by wintry showers in a Northerly flow is shown to release it's grip more slowly than previously drawing down further disturbances across the UK over the weekend and start to next week from the North or NW. This then is replaced by a weakening ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK towards the middle of next week with fine and frosty weather for a day or so before there seems reasonable support between the operational's that milder Atlantic westerly winds and rain at times takes over thereafter. With High pressure then shown by some output shown to lie to the South from ECM and GEM in particular there seems little chance of a return to colder synoptics at first sight but deep within the models are less clear cut chances of milder air as GFS in particular shows in it's output and bearing in mind that this model is performing better than ECM at the 10 day point in it's verification stats leads me to believe that the chance of milder air later next week is very real but this is by no means a done deal and more runs are needed before we can be definitive that's the way the dice is going to fall later next week. meanwhile we can settle into a week of chilly and rather typical March weather with some bright early Spring sunshine mixed with cold winds, frost at night, some bands of rain and snow plus wintry showers scattered about across the UK on most days in the next week.         

Next Update Thursday March 3rd 2016 from 09:00

David, the SSW a couple of weeks ago was not a "proper" one with it giving a borderline reversal of zonal winds. The event due in the next day or two will, by the look of things be a genuine major SSW. I'm not sure where CP has been readinng about the event since the start of the year as the previous minor event was perfectly modelled and turned out as forecast and the upcoming event looks like to happens as originally predicted. If it was from a tabloid site or a ransom GFS operational run then it wasn't worth paying any attention to. The proper analysis sites have got the events spot on.

Note the predicted 10hPa 60N zonal wind reversal in the upcoming event http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng 

Thanks for your explanation, Michael.

Neither, it was on these very model threads on this forum. 

Is there any statistical data out there that shows a correlation between SWW events and norther/easterly type synoptics? as climatologically, northerly or easterly spells have an increased chance of occurring anyway towards late March and into April. Perhaps due to SSW events such as what is forecast?

My opinion on this alleged SSW ( not that it's worth much ) is that at this time of year the stratosphere naturally warms up so it's case of the chicken and the egg scenario for me.

Actually the warming is in the context of the long term climatic mean for the time of year as illustrated by this link. http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng Yes, the stratosphere does began to warm at the time of year but that is a totally different issue to a sudden stratospheric warming which is being modelled for the fist time this winter.

The fact that the stratosphere normally starts to warm in spring is not particularly relevant to the upcoming event. The former climatic  warming of about 20°C takes several weeks whereas the SSW of around 50°C or so looks like taking a day or two. 

This small trough of LP could bring some sleet or snow down towards central and SW parts of the UK early Monday!? What do you think at this stage? - Probably, any snow will be confined to higher ground?

Ecm gives us Spring in 10 days time lets hope it's right as I'm done with the search for snow now. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge will move East across the UK displacing the cold Northerly flow. Following that will be an occluded trough associated with a SE moving depression across England and Wales tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will maintain the 1500ft to 2000ft level for the most part but it could rise to 3000ft for a time across the SW later today and tonight. Snowfall will be restrictive to start with but will engage all Northern England high ground tonight along with North Wales as an occluded trough moves in.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure over or to the East of the UK for the next 3-4 days. Next week the flow re-orientates to a West to East motion across the UK and maintains this general theme for the rest of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the cold theme over the next 5-6 days as winds remain focused from a Northerly point and source delivering spells of rain and hill snow at times, mostly but not exclusively in the form of showers with some frost at night. The run then shows a change following a ridge crossing East over the UK midweek next week with Westerly winds between High pressure to the South and deep Low pressure to the North becoming strong and established and bringing milder and changeable conditions with rain at times heaviest across the North and West for most of the remainder of the period with perhaps a brief chilly NW flow again at the very end of the run.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run stays on track with it's Operational partner until the second week when the change to milder and unsettled Westerly winds is shown to be temporary with High pressure building North across the UK and Scandinavia with cold and frosty conditions but with plenty of warming early Spring sunshine and mostly dry weather likely from then until the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today continue to be undecided in the direction the UK weather takes in two weeks time. This morning's offering shows a range of options perhaps biased more towards High pressure to the West and SW more likely than anything else with winds from a west or NW direction maintaining changeable conditions for most of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows rather cold conditions for another 3-4 days under a slack northerly flow with some wintry showers and the odd longer spells of rain and hill snow affects the West for a time Sunday/Monday. A ridge topples across the UK with temperatures edging up to average by midweek with rain at times in places especially in the North thereafter as winds back to a milder Westerly source.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mostly follow the raw data well with all action coming down from the NW over the period in the shape of chilly winds, troughs, scattered perhaps wintry showers and a longer period of rain/sleet on Sunday and Monday across the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning is more bullish about delaying any quick return to milder weather this morning as it continues to show Low pressure cells drifting SE across the UK and nearby Europe well into the middle of next week and beyond delivering further spells of wintry showers and some longer periods of potentially wintry precipitation over the hills before slowly developing High pressure close to the South of the UK and Europe late next week keeps any mild SW winds restricted towards the NW while the South becomes fine and bright with perhaps night frosts under the influence of the High pressure close by.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the end to the current pattern by the middle of next week as the SE moving weather systems become cut off by a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK and followed by milder Westerly winds with rain at times for many from midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM too maintains a theme of an end to the rather cold conditions across the UK currently by the middle of next week or soon afterwards as the SE moving weather systems down across the UK become cut off by a Jet Stream realigning it's angle of movement to more of a West to East flow across the UK from the middle of next week. In weather terms there should be another 4-5 days of cold weather with some wintry precipitation from showers or longer spells of precipitation at times before a change to milder Westerly winds moves across Britain from the middle of next week with the potential for some quite mild air reaching Southern Britain at times by the second weekend with most of the rain and showers affecting the North by then.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart continues it's rock steady support for milder and well established SW winds and rain at times for all across the UK at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be firming up on a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK from the middle of next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.2 pts to 63.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.6 pts to 47.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  While there is still rather a lot of rather cold and unstable air around across the UK over the next 4-5 days the models seem to be firming up now on the demise of the current pattern from around the middle of next week. Until then the cold northerly sourced airflow will continue to bring a messy mix of rain and snowfall across the UK with elevation meaning everything to what falls from the sky as the air is not quite cold enough to allow snowfall all the way down to sea level. Most of the precipitation will fall in the form of showers but some longer spells of rain, sleet or snow could fall, notably tonight across Central Britain and Western areas over late Sunday into Monday. Thereafter a ridge of High pressure looks like crossing East or SE across the UK midweek with a fine and frosty day or two before milder and strengthening Atlantic Westerly winds develop as High pressure to the South of the UK and Low pressure to the North becomes the popular theme shown between models this morning. The weather then looks like staying changeable with rain at times until the end of the period and ECM in particular shows the chance of some mild Springlike air moving across the South later backed up by it's 10 Day mean Chart this morning while conversely some Northern areas could see incursions of colder air at times still from the North as troughs pass by. In among all this we have the GFS Control Run which brings High pressure across the UK in Week 2 with fine Springlike days and frosty nights. Whatever happens there is little sign of any marked cold weather shown in the output this morning with any results of the Stratospheric warming event currently not realised in any output this morning that I have seen with very typical varied chart offerings very indicative of what is normal for March on offer this morning.

Next Update Friday March 4th 2016 from 09:00

and not to forget the normal rapidly increasing temperatures of the midlatitudes..  Sure if the winds do reverse and come from the eastern quarter they may simply drag up some warm air originating from the southeast of Europe & Asia.

High pressure is the same as low pressure in that it's always warmer on one flank 😊

the gfs has always liked to over cook cold, heat, rainfall, and pressure lol

It got the rainfall for the flooded areas throughout winter spot on.  It also highlighted storms way in advance

Snowfall - well.  I think this winter will be remembered as the year of the Downgrade.  In a similar fashion to how the Chinese give a character to their years.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016030312/gem-0-240.png?12

GEM throws us bone. GFS also blocked in deep FI, whether this is down to the SSW, I don't know

I just wonder if the stratospheric warming of early-mid Feb, even though it wasn't a major event, did manage to briefly disrupt the atlantic flow and lead to the colder & drier spell we saw last week. Even though it hasn't led to a major pattern change, it could have been sufficient enough to at least weaken the zonal flow whoch had been going on for what seemed like an eternity.

Snow risk on the Arpege 12z looks quite limited:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?charttype=precipsnow&model=arpege&region=uk&charthour=15

yes BBC. Dampened down their snow areas too. 

Some nice content on here today with decent explanations 👌

Should HLB propagate as a result of the imminent SSW and draw cold air from the Far East (something that has been absent this year), I fear it will be too late to be anything other than of academic interest to most. This winter has been totally underwhelming imho.

Well the SSW looks like happening as forecast however whether it leads to wintry conditions in the UK is and always has been a different issue. It is definitely not as simply as SSW= cold for the UK.

It should have notable impacts...somewhere. It may have negligible impacts here, may lead to wintry/cold conditions or indeed some form of pattern change which could actually bring milder conditions. Time will tell and the only thing I am predicting is that a major warming is likely in the next couple of days.

It certainly isn't, as otherwise we'd see really cold air every March/April when the final warming happens!

Is there a sudden stratospheric warming with zonal wind reversal every Mar/April, as I am not referring to the normal seasonal warming?

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A Low pressure area across England and Wales this morning will pull away SE over the next 24 hours with an associated occluded front across Northern England continuing to pivot and move back SE tonight and tomorrow as a chilly Northerly flow establishes across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be lowest across Northern England and North Wales this morning at around 500-1000ft while elsewhere and later in the above areas too the level rises to nearer 2000ft. Snowfall to low levels across Northern England early today will turn to rain and sleet below 1000ft through the day as it trends back SE'wards.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure over or to the East of the UK for the next 3-4 days. Thereafter the pattern becomes more variable with the general theme of changing the orientation of the flow West to East still indicated but somewhat less well defined than was shown yesterday.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows another 4 or so days of rather cold conditions as our airflow remains sourced from Northerly latitudes bringing occasional outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow. Then by midweek a weakening ridge crosses East over the UK with fine and bright conditions for a time. Westerly winds follow strengthening markedly in the North with fronts crossing the UK West to East delivering rain at times. Then through the second week more settled weather looks likely to extend slowly North across the UK as High pressure builds up over the UK with fine and settled weather with quite Springlike daytime conditions likely with patchy overnight frosts returning. the run then ends with somewhat more changeable and perhaps chillier conditions returning to some parts as pressure falls somewhat especially in the North.  

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows a similar course to the operational run with the first week cold and changeable with some rain, sleet or snow at times before a spell of milder Westerly winds towards the end of next week leads into the second week becoming fine and settled and by day quite Springlike in bright sunshine and light winds as strong High pressure area migrates North and settles across the UK. By night clear skies and frost is likely while towards the end of the run it looks like becoming slightly more changeable again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards High pressure lying close to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with light winds in the South and a lot of fine weather while the North sees some rain at times in an Atlantic flow. Just a 10% cluster show a more definitive Westerly flow with rain at times for all. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning extends the cold and changeable theme for an extra day today as it shows another trough disrupting across the UK towards the middle of next week before a Westerly flow overpowers the Northerly winds across the UK and NW Europe later in the week with less cold and changeable Westerly winds with rain at times type of weather then likely for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex and rather cold pattern of weather across the UK over the next 5 days as troughs of Low pressure continue to move into the UK from the NW into cold air and delivering occasional rain and hill wintriness.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning is also showing a delay in milder Atlantic Westerly winds too arriving next week as the cold Northerly feed is reluctant to clear the east coast midweek. So further rather cold and changeable weather up to around Wednesday of next week. Thereafter the pattern remains quite blocked as High pressure builds over the UK and eventually Scandinavia too bringing fine and bright conditions with frosts at night with the chance of things turning rather cold again later as winds threaten to turn Easterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the end to the current pattern by the middle of next week as the SE moving weather systems become cut off by a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK and followed by milder Westerly winds with rain at times for many from midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also hinders the extent to which milder Atlantic winds extend across the UK next week with the main push delayed until Thursday when all areas become less cold with rain at times following the rather cold and changeable theme in a Northerly flow up to that point. then towards next weekend and beyond with High pressure building close to SE Britain there is strong potential for things to turn quite Springlike across the South at least as balmy South or SE winds sourced from Southern Europe waft up across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure close to SE Britain or thereabouts with a resultant mild and balmy Southerly drift across the UK with temperatures likely to exceed average levels for some as a result and certainly much milder than recently for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be continuing to give good cross model support for  a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK delayed just a little from what was shown yesterday.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.7 pts to 62.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 50.1 pts to 47.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The model outputs this morning continue the main theme of the last few days in that the current chilly and rather changeable spell is still expected to give way to rather milder Westerly winds later next week. There is some signs of a slight delay in this happening particularly from UKMO which shows another advancing trough midweek disrupting across the UK as it stagnates against the cold block. However, it appears just a short delay as the end of the week looks milder for all with some rain at times and temperatures back up to average levels at least. It's then all about how long this pattern lasts as there is quite a lot of evidence of High pressure building up from the South with time and settling the weather down especially in the South during the second week. Some output wholeheartedly brings High pressure right across the UK with fine and sunny early Spring conditions by day with frosty nights while some also build High pressure back to the NE and threaten a return to rather chilly weather later. ECM on the other hand has High pressure positioned such at the end of it's run that would bring early Spring warmth up across the UK from a source near the Med and this theme has been indicated within it's 10 day Mean Chart for the last few days with this morning's chart being no exception to that theme. So in a nutshell the rather cold and changeable theme with some rain and hill snow continues until the middle of next week before a change to a less cold period with rain at times especially in the North leads into the chance of fine and settled conditions developing under High pressure in the second week with bright sunny days and the risk of overnight frosts returning.. All in all not a bad set of output this morning which offers many of the variables that can normally be on offer in march with nothing at all alarmist on view this morning.

Next Update Saturday March 5th 2016 from 09:00