http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_372_uk2mtmp.png?cb=149

Looking like a 2012 repeat towards the end of the month if this materialises.

ECM parallel becomes OP today (I think). At this point the ECM is vastly superior to any other model at 5 and 7 days. Bear this in mind. 

In that case, bank! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

Tomorrow.

Cold outlier this morning to warm one this evening:-

Suspect it'll be a little while yet before we firm up on whether the warmer or cooler camp is the winner. In the nearer term though a bit of wet weather to get through before some spring warmth puts in an appearance. Happy days

Lovely Springlike Ecm. This is as close as the cold gets to the UK and that's at day 10. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

It is, but it'd be a temporary spring given the way HP is relocating, with cold air being pulled in from the East post T240/264. Still, as you highlight, that's way in FI and it's lovely before that

 Bank from me, too. I hope the high pressure can hang about a bit 

An extended period of dry weather with increasing daylength and Spring sunshine would be most welcome..Wonderful output this morning. 

Similar picture up here too Steve. I rather like the SLP chart http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsensmslpaberdeen.png?cb=909 

Boys and girls say hello to your Auntie Cyclonic. 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough of Low pressure will move Se across the UK today followed by a vigorous depression moving into Southern Britain later tonight and through tomorrow with complex troughing and gales affecting England and Wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be a little higher than recently at around 3000-3000ft especially across the South. There will be snowfall over higher ground of Scotland today and perhaps on the highest ground of England and Wales later tonight and tomorrow too as colder uppers are dragged down by heavy precipitation.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream currently moving South over or just to the West of the UK will end soon as pressure rises from the SW from Thursday. This will then divert the flow well to the NW of the UK in a NE direction, probably near Iceland. Through next week this arm of the flow remains well North as well as weakening with a Southern arm strengthening over Spain and Iberia. This arm then becomes the dominant one late in the period gradually edging North but all the while remaining South of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today offers a lot of fine weather across the UK in the next few weeks. The period is book-ended though by far from settled conditions at the start with a deep Low tomorrow bringing rain and strong winds to many before High pressure builds NE across the South of the UK in it's wake and then drifts slowly North maintaining fine and sometimes pleasant daytime conditions before temperatures fall back somewhat later next week under an East or SE flow though at this stage fine weather would be maintained. Then towards the end of the period High pressure declines to allow Atlantic Low pressure and fronts to edge across the UK from the SW and West with rain at times and average temperatures.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows similar conditions under High pressure for most of the time from the end of this working week. It's position shuffles around a bit and unlike the Operational Run maintains it's influence across the UK right out to day 14 with mostly fine and settled conditions with some mild days but with a trend to reduce temperatures with time especially by night with frosts in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show few if any clues as to where we will be in two weeks time. There is an even split between influence from both High and Low pressure near the UK with no firm theme shown today. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure building from the SW behind tomorrows deep, wet and windy Low pressure with the centre looking likely to lie just to the East of the UK with fine and settled conditions gradually developing UK wide. There could be a lot of low grey cloud in places for a while holding back otherwise mild temperatures but rainfall beyond tomorrow should become significantly less. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slow changes across the UK in the coming 5 days. We still have 1 more inclement day to endure tomorrow under the rather cold conditions making Wednesday a very unpleasant wet day across the South in particular and I wouldn't be surprised to see more hill on it's Northern Flank as it clears. Then it's all about how quickly and decisively milder air from the SW engages with the rise of pressure occurs across all parts of the UK towards the weekend and how much influence weak warm fronts moving into the High pressure from the West interact under the High pressure likely to mean a lot of low grey damp cloud.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning is very High pressure based with fine and settled weather developing later in the week as well as temperatures on the rise to average or maybe a little above in skies brighten. There looks to be little significant change through next week with High pressure always nearby with varying amounts of cloud determining how mild the days become and whether frost is allowed to develop by night in always light winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks quite similar to GEM this morning building a belt of High pressure across Southern Britain by the weekend which is then shown to extend slowly North to a previously damper North by late in the weekend and the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is a very settled one with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in a few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre drifts towards Scandinavia and then back close to northern Scotland later next week. Some early Spring warmth is possible for a time dependent on cloud amounts though a general cooling breeze from the East is likely to develop across the South of the UK with time. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project High pressure lying directly over the UK in 10 days time. This being so the most likely weather would be fine and settled for most if not all of the UK and with any March sunshine it could become quite mild by day at times but still with the risk of frosts should those same cloud breaks occur overnight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 86.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.9 pts to 60.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.5 pts to 46.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure is soon to become the dominant role player in the UK weather over the next few weeks. I'm sure most people will agree this will be a welcome change to the recent rather cold and changeable weather which has followed on the back of sometimes cloudy and wet but very mild Winter. What type of weather is likely at the surface is all dependent on what the orientation of the High pressure ends up being along with it's positioning but my best guess taken from today's output is that the South will first see the effects of fine if cloudy and milder weather on the lead up to the weekend before this type of weather extends slowly North to a rather damper North as warm fronts there cross NE on the Northern flank of the High for a time. With the High pressure migrating somewhat further North later in the weekend and next week all areas are likely to become or stay dry and probably quite bright with temperatures very respectable especially in any sunnier breaks. Having said that as the High drifts North it opens the door to a flow of air from a chillier continent and it may well be that temperatures fall back somewhat under a chilly breeze and if it stays cloudy it could feel quite raw especially near the East coast. Then as the two week period covered by this morning's output closes the theme is how and if the High pressure declines to a point that Atlantic Low pressure is allowed to return either from the SW or NW and any indicators which way the dice will fall is very unclear from the long term outputs at the moment also endorsed from the long term ensemble and cluster data available too. So recapping a couple of welcome dry and fine weeks of weather seems likely to develop and while no particularly cold weather is likely any mild or Springlike conditions remain totally dependent on whether cloud amounts become favourably small enough to a point that would also accommodate frost by night.

Next Update Wednessday March 9th 2016 from 09:00

Louise Lear on Weather for the Week ahead hedging the MetO forecast and giving both these as long-term possibilities. The poitiioning of the high over the Baltic was not in previous MetO forecasts, so it looks as if they've picked up a new signal. Watch this space!

While the models faff around with what could be dramatic developments in the 7-14 day range (I'm not yet buying their current half-hearted attempts), let's have a close look at what the highest resolution freely available model that I know of makes of tomorrow's vicious little low.

A 991 mb core pressure is hardly extreme in itself, however the low is elongated N-S and this makes a big difference to the potential wind speeds, as the air is able to build up greater momentum on each side. This model is actually one of the least vigorous with the squeeze on the isobars on the western side, and furthest south with the track, but the predicted wind gusts are still striking:

90-100 kph (56-62 mph) gusts in the Channel with 80-90 (50-56 mph) across the SW. The GFS model is around 10 mph stronger with these values, and further north, hitting the likes of Dorset with some of the strongest winds.

It's a fairly brief event, as the low is now expected to drop south quite fast, whereas yesterday's runs were stalling it out just SE of the UK. This has also reduced the expected rainfall totals, but they are still noteworthy:

Prior to the event, the affected area has totals of just 1-2 mm from SE to NW. So we're seeing the potential for 30-40 mm across a wide area, with 50 mm over higher ground, in the space of about 20 hours.

When it comes to the location, this is very uncertain even at this short range; the low has a similar track to the 00z, yet the 00z had the highest totals further SE:

So clearly the displacement of the active frontal boundary from the core of the low is not reliably resolved. Past experience with such volatile systems suggests it won't be until the last minute, if even then! Same goes for the exact path and where the strongest winds end up.

Some intense rain rates for the time of year are possible in the morning so it could be seriously wild for a time as the strong winds combine with that. Freak gusts would not surprise me, these being ones associated with convective downbursts adding to the broad scale winds. More than 70 mph looks possible along the south coast so watch out for that if you're going to be in the area!

Where is all the Spring warmth the Mildies have been banging on about gone? The Beeb has highs for my location of 7,7,6,6,6,7,8,8,8 with night temps hovering around freezing. Looks like it won't be deckchairs at the ready after all and more in the line with the MO forecast.  How is that humble pie? Tasty? 

Who exactly is eating humble pie then this is the MO forecast from yesterday?

'A rather cloudy day with patchy light rain for the northwest on Sunday, whilst brighter and drier conditions for parts of the southwest and possibly at times for the southeast and northeast. High pressure is then expected to dominate well into next week, to bring largely dry and settled weather, with temperatures probably above normal. Feeling rather warm and spring-like when the sun's out, but a risk of rural frost at night.'

Yes the emphasis has been and continues to be on settled conditions and feeling springlike in any sunshine rather than any notable high temperatures. If the High is positioned slightly to the north then parts of the SE may end up with more of a continental flow and a little cooler.

You know what I'm talking about.

I just think if the MO themselves are talking about 'warm springlike conditions' with 'above average temps' you can see why the Mildies were getting interested. I agree with you though the latest Beeb temps are utter crap and go against the Meto's own forecast. Strange!

Yes definitely this warm spell not the 15-16c originally touted as per the other post more like the mid 50's but still pleasant in light winds in the sun.   GEFS definitely backed away from any cold spell this morning  but those cold 850's look very close in FI on ECM:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Not really any support from any other models though so the most likely HP placement will be a collapse into Europe as per GEM for example.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep Low pressure across Southern England will move away SE across France later today and tonight with an occluded front across Central areas dissipating by tomorrow as pressure rises strongly across the UK under a ridge of High pressure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be a little higher than recently at around 3000ft over the next few days before rising slowly from the West and NW over the coming days. Snowfall will be restricted to the highest hills of England and Wales for a time today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is currently about to change it's orientation to a position NW of the UK and moving in a NE direction as pressure builds across the UK. Then as we go through the weekend and next week the Southern arm of the flow becomes stronger and moves North to become the main flow by then crossing West to East over the UK. Finally towards the end of the period the flow becomes much more unclear in both positioning and strength. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure rising across the UK over the next few days as Low pressure over the South subsides away South. A belt of High pressure then lies across Southern Britain by the weekend while the North sees milder SW winds and all areas will feel the benefit of milder air for a time. However as High pressure shifts further North showery rain will be pushed NE across England and Wales as a SE to east flow develops. Then it'a all about the return of more changeable weather across the British isels in a Westerly flow by the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar trend to the Operational again this morning with the exception of colder conditions shown sweeping South across the UK again towards the end of the second week as High pressure to the West spreads wintry showery South with frosts at night. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters once again today look very undecided on what the UK will lie under in two weeks time as all sorts of options are shown ranging from Low pressure across the UK with rain at times and much slacker pressure areas with benign weather neither fine nor wet.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure building across Southern Britain in the next few days and extending slowly North later as it rests over the North Sea. Milder air will engulf the UK for a while before temperatures ease back a little in the South later as an ESE breeze develops here. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS From the Fax Charts this morning it would appear that substantially mild air is going to struggle to get down across the Southeast of the UK as a warm front introducing it straddles the middle of the UK over the weekend. So while the North and West become milder with some rain at times in the far NW the South and East look like staying dry if cloudy and somewhat cooler than originally thought.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning maintains it's High pressure based predictions with the High centre mostly to the East or NE but never drifting far away from our shores. The  weather will be benign for the most part with varying amounts of cloud and some sunshine and temperatures probably ending up close to average but with some night frosts at night. There are signs at the very end of the run that the High may be slipping away SE allowing Atlantic fronts into the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very high pressure focused too with the centre gradually extending as a belt across Southern Britain and nearby Europe to a migration somewhat further North later displacing the cloudy, damp and mild SW flow in the NW up to the weekend. Fine and settled conditions prevail for many with temperatures close to normal and the risk of some frosts at night should skies clear.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is a very settled one again with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in the next few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre drifts further North. Some bright Spring sunshine looks very likely for many with some frosts at night but temperatures by day would be close to average overall and perhaps quite mild at first. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project a High pressure ridge likely to be lying across the UK in 10 days with fine and settled conditions in light winds most probable.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.2 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.3 pts to 46.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS This morning continues to project a change in the weather over the coming few days and then lasting for some considerable time. In the meantime we still have to get rid of this nasty Low pressure across Southern Britain this morning with it's attendant gales and heavy rain but once passed it looks like this could be the last heavy rain and strong winds we see in the South for quite a time. The orientation of the anticipated High pressure has changed somewhat over the last day or so and it now looks as if the High will lie in a belt across the South come the weekend with the mild Atlantic SW'lies affecting the North and West with a little rain at times here whereas in the South quiet and benign weather conditions will bring slightly colder air than first though here though it could hardly be described as cold. then as we move out of the weekend and through next week it looks like High pressure will extend across all of Britain with fine and settled weather with some sunshine by day and frosts where skies clear at night. Temperatures by day should be close to average and this might mean they fall back somewhat to levels expected at the weekend across the NW. With regard to the longevity of the spell the jury is out as a cocktail of synoptics from all models are shown for two weeks time offering no clues. however, there doesn't look to be anything alarmist to worry about within the next few weeks so let's sit back and enjoy a much welcome dry and fine period and with a bit of luck the strengthening sunshine at this time of year should signify thoughts that Spring proper is only just around the corner.

Next Update Thursday March 10th 2016 from 09:00