Almost gets there, but fails, to be followed up with a proper blast from the north at the end of FI.  Still encouraging runs at this stage.

encouraging for what exactly?

I dont think you really need hot temperatures for it to feel springlike.  The sun alone makes it feel springlike.

I was out in my garden on the weekend in the sun, in a t-shirt mind.  It was lovely.  Then about 3pm clouds rolled in and it started to snow for 15 mins.  Which made everything muddy and cold.

Temperature is a funny thing at this time of year.  Wear black clothes and it feels proper toastie through the sun.

In today's climate, 9C is "feeling rather warm" and 6C is "feeling bitterly cold". 

Hilarious, isn't it. Ergo, does that make 7.5C "tepid"?

For perhaps another blast of cold before the winter is properly over.  Im a cold weather fan.

I'm a cold weather fan too, but it's near mid March now. What would be encouraging is a blast of mid teens ☀️ It is after all spring. 😊

Well according to my Collins guide to the Elements book, March is typically the driest month of the year, for London anyway.

For early morning UKMO and GFS, just hope for some more Cold Continental ESE flow, with maybe risk of Overcast Skies and a bit of Sleet possible as by Sunday to Tuesday coming another chilly cold dry spell could be hinted at as per GFS 18z ahem😄😉.

I mostly stick with the 00z and 12z runs.  Whatever happens please do not lose faith, some mixed weather pattern is being teased, but the 00z and 12z trends are what give us better grasp.

It's going to be very cloudy and not much sun to be had.

There again been a chilly evening in my part of London, after a mildish day  with max of 9 deg. Celsius.   There were rain showers some heavy, it was dull overcast with little sunny intervals!.

Still hopeful that this March will have some weather to talk about on this forecast discussion.🌫😃.

Apart from a tempering of the predicted max temps through the weekend due to a rather annoying SE pick-up across the south, most areas look set for a very decent spell indeed. Parts of the North could see highs up to 15deg by Sunday.

Beyond that and I still can't see much in the way of either a significant reaction to the SSW, or more importantly a shift that will deliver much colder air our way. There's far too much scatter in the suite to be confident about week two on.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening occluded front will lie across the East of the UK weakening further through the day as pressure rises  strongly across the UK. Further weak fronts will approach the NW later tonight and tomorrow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the next few days especially across the North and West where the generally close to 3000ft freezing level across the SE will rise above 5000ft across NW Britain tomorrow. As a result no snow is expected across the UK today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry with some sunshine by day and frost at night. Perhaps becoming less settled again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is expected to turn North towards Icland across the Atlantic over the coming days as pressure builds across the UK. the flow remains well NW for a time while the Southern arm of the flow becomes more influential to the UK as it migrates further North later next week in association with falling pressure. The flow becomes more variable for a time before reverting to a flow well South of the UK again is projected late in the period. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure rising across the South of the UK over the next few days as Low pressure over the South subsides away South. A belt of High pressure then lies in a belt across Southern Britain by the weekend while the North sees milder SW winds and all areas will feel the benefit of milder air for a time. Next week then shows High pressure to the east and SSE winds maintaining quite mild weather ahead of fronts bringing a change to rain at times by the second week. Through that week a change again to cold and unsettled weather is shown as Low pressure slips to the South of the UK with rain turning to snow over hills and frosts at night possible once more.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar trend to the Operational again this morning although it strengthens the theme towards cold easterly winds greater than the operational in week 2 as Low temperatures flood SW over Northern Europe and engages with Low pressure developing to the South and SW of the UK with some late March snow for many should it verify.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters once again today look very undecided on what the UK will lie under in two weeks time as all sorts of options are shown ranging from Low pressure across the UK with rain at times and much slacker pressure areas with benign weather and others with Low pressure to the South or SW bringing somewhat colder conditions.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows sustained High pressure building across Southern Britain in the next few days and extending slowly North later as it later rests over the North Sea. Milder air will engulf the UK for a while before temperatures ease back a little in the South later as an ESE breeze develops here but on the whole dry, fine and bright weather is expected by next week for all. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS From the Fax Charts this morning it would appear that substantially mild air is going to struggle to get down across the Southeast of the UK as a warm front introducing it continues to straddle the middle of the UK over the weekend. So while the North and West become milder with some rain at times in the far NW the South and East look like staying dry if rather cloudy and somewhat cooler than originally thought. Brighter conditions look like slowly extending NW early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning keeps the UK locked under High pressure centred close to or for most of the time over the UK with fine and at times sunny weather though with frosts at night. With light winds and reasonable uppers March sunshine should lift daytime temperatures to average if not a bit above whereas frosts at night are likely too. At the end of the 10 day period pressure is shown to leak away SE with Atlantic fronts moving in from the West later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM once developed holds High pressure close to the NE of the UK before slipping it gently South down the North Sea next week with winds turning more Southerly later and maintaining fine and in places mild weather through the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is a very settled one again with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in the next few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre lies close by. Some bright Spring sunshine looks very likely for many with some frosts at night but temperatures by day would be close to average if not above overall but with some frosts under clear skies at night. At the very end of the run High pressure is shown to leak away to the SE with unsettled conditions looking likely to develop soon after Day 10. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project a High pressure ridge likely to be lying across the UK in 10 days with fine and settled conditions in light winds most probable.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK for some time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.2 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.3 pts to 45.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Changes since yesterday morning are small with regard to the prospects of a sustained and very welcome dry and settled spell of weather for all parts of the UK. With yesterday's inclement Low pressure well out of the way now the pressure is building strongly and will continue to rise over the coming few days so that a belt of High pressure from a centre near Denmark or Germany will keep Southern Britain fine and dry. In the NW we may have to wait a little longer as weak Atlantic fronts carry light rain and mild air across for several more day. However, as the High inches NW and North next week all areas become under the influence of it and this means we should all share in a lot of dry, bright and fine days with average or above average temperatures while nights are chilly with frosts in places where skies stay clear. It's not until the second week when cracks appear in this pattern with some output sliding High pressure away to the South and SE with the Atlantic winds returning or GFS which seems to favour a return to cold conditions as a cold plunge of Arctic air moves South over Europe and is steered SW towards the UK engaging with falling pressure to the South and SW with the threat of snow in places. While it does seem a repeating trend between runs I think the GEM, NAVGEM and ECM route this morning is the more likely one with a gentle return to less settled conditions with some rain at times more likely as we enter the latter stages of the month.

Next Update Friday March 11th 2016 from 09:00

GFS appears to be toying with a new pattern/idea. 

From experience these cold pools moving in from the ESE at this time of year bring an unstable environment capable of bringing snow showers.  If it is just a blip in an otherwise dry and settled theme I'd be happy. 

Some exceptionally cold ensemble members appearing. Not unusual to see this in far FI on the GEFS, but there are rather more than usual. Some suberb eye candy. 

Edit: Some of these ensembles really are quite unbelievable. Alot of sub -10Cs, and I suspect a few sub -15Cs 850hpa temps.

Example of the sort of thing coming in:

What's amazing is how strong this signal is, about 60% of charts seem to be a deep northerly like this! 

OK this is so insane, I'm starting to think something is wrong with the GFS.

I'd actually say more than half of the ensembles have -10C 850hpa or lower on them and virtually all are lower than -6C. This won't be the only sub -15C one either.

GFS seems to be handling next week very well, but ECMWF after 96hr goes more big block high domination, UKMO favours GFS at 144hrs and it has a cold pool waiting on Netherlands, that should re-appear on tomorrow's GFS and UKMO 00z to 12z run I hope.

The GFS for later next week and to following Saturday-Sunday has SW then Cyclonic flow with Low Pressure with Cyclonic SW /varying direction winds and mild wet and windy weather for UK West and N. Europe that pushes the North Europe High P block, by Thurs Friday next week should turn windy and mild then to Sunday.

This Sat-Sun. Weekend and Friday looks quite pleasantly mild in Central and N UK, and it looks like the South would be chilly cool with more cloudy than sunshine, for there Sat-Sun looks mostly under large control of High P for UK and N Central Europe.

A chilly Easterly is expected from 144hrs if today's 12z UKMO is to truth, GFS has it as well about Tuesday (24hrs earlier) it gets removed by 168hrs Thursday next week.

😅😀🌥☁️🌫.

Calm down, Q 😀 I'm worried you might injure yourself with your excitement!

Whilst the NWP toys around with the end of March, there is very little consistency and the typically wild and outrageous scenarios remain solidly on Fantasy Island (not waving at us from the beach, but hiding in the hut half way up the volcano). I'd post the ECM DeBilts, but the IOS display of the editor is being a pain and won't let me paste the link. As an alternative, here's the text version:

'deBilt 2m ENS of 50 ECM cluster: Minimal deviation, range +8 to -2'.

🤓

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 11TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong ridge of High pressure lies across the UK as it continues to build further, killing the remains of the weak trough across Central UK. However weak fronts on a mild SW flow will bring some light rainfall to the NW at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the next few days especially to lie around 5000ft across Southern and Eastern UK and to 7000ft across the NW. As a result no snowfall is expected anywhere across the UK over the next few days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry with some sunshine by day and frost at night. Perhaps becoming less settled again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is now blowing North over the Atlantic to Iceland where it remains for several days. As we move through next week a deep trough across the Atlantic sets up a Southern arm which then becomes the main arm as it migrates slowly North to lie on a West to East axis across the UK. In the second week a split flow seems likely with one arm to the South and one to the North of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure near to the UK over the next few weeks so a dry spell for many to come. The High pressure zone will lie to the East or NE at firtst with a light Easterly flow developing before it veers slowly towards the South as the High slips away to the SE. Then through the second week with slack pressure some rain is possible for a time before new High pressure develops to the NW and delivers another dry spell but possibly a rather cold Easter in winds and air across the UK from a chilly source to the North and NE.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very much the same as the Operational Run today with a greater emphasis on the cold developing across the UK towards the Easter break perhaps with some wintry showers in places and certainly frosts at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards Atlantic Low pressure in control to the North or NW across the UK in 14 days time. It does go against the theme of the Operational and Control Runs today though with just a 30% cache of members showing something akin to those runs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows sustained High pressure building across the UK over the weekend and through the early part of next week as it drifts slowly North across the East of the UK and starts to recede away to the NW later next week. Dry and bright for much of the time with respectable day temperatures but some chilly and frosty nights should skies clear. Signs of chillier air then is hinted at Day 6 coming down from the North or NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning shows some indecision in it's 10 Day chart. On the face of it there is a slack Westerly flow shown between Low pressure well to the North of the UK and High pressure still influential to the South. The operational is supported though within it's ensemble group but with some mebers showing something much more unsettled and therefore somewhat diffusing the end chart's authenticity today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.4 pts to 61.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.5 pts to 46.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning could look a lot worse and if it's fine and settled weather which lasts for a considerable while you seek then your in luck this morning as there looks very chance of any significant rainfall across the UK for at least 10 days and probably more. We still have to remove the milder and damper SW flow afflicting the NW for a few more days before High pressure completes it's job in extending influence to all areas from Sunday. What is less clear is how much of this High pressure is going to deliver in the way of cloud as it is only March and like Winter anticyclones this one could well give rise to some quite cloudy days and as a result a little bit disappointing and cool. However, that's the only negative in an otherwise very useable period with the added daylight hours now helping to offset any cloudiness and coolness. Some sunshine will inevitably occur at times and where it does it will feel very pleasant but those same clear daytime skies could translate into clear night one's giving rise to frost in places. Then looking into the distant reaches of this morning's output GFS continues to want to bring cold and potentially a little wintry conditions towards Easter as a cold plunge looks likely across Europe. However, ECM and some of the rest prefer to keep this plunge harmlessly away over Central and Eastern Europe with High pressure remaining close by for us and I feel this is more likely making Easter a useable one if not a record breaking one. However, in model runs terms that remains an ocean away for now and in the meantime let's all enjoy some very pleasant early Spring conditions in the next few weeks when we may continue to need a coat but hopefully it will just be used to keep out a chill rather than rain. A day off from the models from me tomorrow but will return on Sunday.

Next Update Sunday March 13th 2016 from 09:00

how you can state March is barley a spring month when the sun has as much energy in as it does in September, and the day's become longer then nights, I find this baffling. 😕

Look at all that cold air finally coming on our side of the arctic. 

Haven't seen so much cold air so close to us in a while!

The GFS and UKMO in total agreement for Tuesday and Wednesday 96-120hr period, A mild North, generally with partly cloudy and partially sunny weather at times South could see Chilly weather like normal March temperatures.

The procession of cold weather fronts could bring some rain showers for below 250 metres and hill sleet showers higher than 250m.  There could be frost at night Tuesday and Wednesday.

The wind reversal in the surface and mid levels looks quite dominant across a large part of Europe and NE to N Atlantic pushing North and NNE the PV Low Pressure during next 6 days at least.  A deep PV Low SW of this major Northern MLB Block at 96-120hr in mid West of North Atlantic quite a thing😆😄🌦.

Not very good seeing an overal setup that limits the amount of cold air available in the area directly sitting under the High Pressure, Jestream and Low's circulating in Circumpolar regions well distanced from the high- the cold pulses just flipping up and over then down along the 70-90 North Jetstream PV systems...😏🌤.