THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will remain very high over the UK in the coming days with the weak frontal troughs across the NW decaying and moving away North in the next 24 hours. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 6000-7000ft asl under strong High pressure which as a result will not allow for any snowfall across the UK for some considerable time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night and near average temperatures by day.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is blowing NE across Iceland at the moment a position it maintains for some considerable while. There is also a southern arm of the flow too for a time across Iberia but through the two weeks the UK lies well away from the core of the flow as it maintains generally well North and South of the UK

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure in complete control of the weather across the UK throughout the next few weeks. It's position varies a little day to day but it never loses firm control for all with plenty of dry and fine weather with just slight variations on amounts of cloud and a chilly breeze day to day the main focus for forecasters. Towards the end of the Easter weekend the charts show a brief cold Northerly developing down across the UK as Low pressure dives SE over Europe but High pressure looks set to build back down from the NW by month's end.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks very similar with just the caveat that Easter could become rather cold and unsettled as slack Low pressure areas move into the UK with rain or showers at times and snow on hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a bias of 65% to 35% in favour of maintaining High pressure in some sort of control of the UK weather in 14 days though within this group there i indecision on positioning of this feature. The other group of members show Low pressure from off the Atlantic regaining some control of the weather across the UK..

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure in control all of the coming week with the centre right over the top of the UK by the end of the week with fine and settled weather throughout. Varying amounts of cloud and sunshine will lead to day to day differences which also determines whether night frosts and fogs occur or not but no rain is expected anywhere this week 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well but better illustrate the less straigthforward day to day differences might manifest as weak fronts bring a chill East wind and more cloud cover with perhaps a little drizzle across Southern areas for a time towards midweek or thereafter.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks very settled too over the next week or so as High pressure remains in complete control with just patchy frosts and cloud disrupting the early Spring look of things. Towards the end of the run High pressure weakens away east allowing some ingress of Atlantic fronts and patchy rain by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows complete High pressure domination across the UK now for the next week with the centre moving South across the UK late this week and next weekend allowing a weak West or SW flow to develop across the North by the end of next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is looking very settled across the UK for most of the period with it's version of High pressure movements taking it to the West of the UK late in the period threatening a cold Northerly flow for a while in the second week with perhaps some showers near eastern coasts. However, it's just a keen breeze and cloud amounts in the South this coming week which could mar a fine settled period for otherwise for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows a High pressure ridge across Southern areas with growing support for a change at around the middle of the second week for Low pressure off the Atlantic to edge it's influence South across Northern Britain later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.3 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 60.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.2 pts to 45.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS After a day away from the models I can see that there have been few changes to them since Friday with the unanimous version of today's report focusing on the persistence of the High pressure area now well developed near the UK. So we can all look forward to a protracted dry period with just the usual early Spring caveats of 'how much cloud and cold wind' is going to affect the South of the UK in particular as we enter midweek this week and possibly beyond. This if course will have a direct impact of the feel of things out and about and it may well feel quite raw for a time f cloud and the cold east wind coincide which currently looks as though they will. This of course leaves the NW with the best sunshine and probably highest temperatures this week as the High centre lies close by. Then as we move into the second week and towards the Easter holiday there are still no clear cut messages given apart from the fact that some output wants to maintain High pressure in one for or another right up to Easter and possible Easter itself although there is equally strong hints that Low pressure could make inroads back into the UK from off the Atlantic by then not forgetting also that a few members want to still put the UK under a cold Northerly for a time towards the Easter weekend with ECM looking on board with that theory today. However, all in all a decent spell of weather to come where drying ground will enable the early season ground preparation to take place though gardeners and growers would be well advised against putting tender plants etc out into the open for some considerable time yet as frosts at night remain a strong probability at times over the rest of the month. 

Next Update Monday March 14th 2016 from 09:00

It'll do me just fine!  Some nice dry weather on the way for a change, cloudy or nay. 

It looks like Cumbria may not be the ideal location today at least. Other parts should fare a bit better http://en.sat24.com/en/gb?type=visual5 

i can't believe there are people complaining about this marvellous H.P. dominated weather already! Let it continue until Autumn - if only.

"A peck of March dust is worth a king's ransom"

This just flashed up on my phone and I thought there'd been a data download problem but it is correct:

Indeed! Perfick weather for the next couple of weeks.

I still factor the recent SSW into the blocked scenario.

I would say that is impossible now. 

Not with 40mm locally

Only 13.9mm so far this month

Average is 56.1mm

Driest was 19.3mm in 2012

Its possible at least, certainly for my "local" area

It would have to be  localised because this March for England and Wales is already as wet as March last year. 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will remain very high over the UK in the coming days with a high centre across the North Sea responsible for fine and settled weather across the UK for the next few days. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 6000-7000ft asl under strong High pressure which as a result will not allow for any snowfall across the UK for some considerable time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night and near average temperatures by day.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is responding to a block of High pressure across the UK at the moment with the undulating flow over the Atlantic splitting into two arms one well to the South and the other well away to the NW of the UK both moving in an Easterly direction. The flow becomes more variable later with no definitive pattern as High pressure remains fairly close to the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure in complete control of the weather across the UK for much of the next few weeks with the centre drifting slowly west or SW across the UK through the next week or so. This will maintain fine and bright weather especially in the NW whereas a chilly breeze and cloudier skies will likely affect the South at times. Then through the second week and as we move towards the Easter weekend it looks like there will be a change towards more unsettled conditions with rain at times especially in the South as Low pressure edges down across these areas from the North and then West but a High pressure ridge then returns again later in that weekend. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows the same High pressure moving West across the UK through this week with it's largely fine and settled conditions maintained but then accelerating quicker West from next weekend and allowing a cold second week with things turning more unsettled under Low pressure with rain and hill snow becoming likely for many through the second week and over the Easter weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today are back to their un-decisive nature again this morning with the 14 day point showing a mix of 4-5 options all with supporting members amounting to around 20% and ranging from unsettled conditions in association with Low pressure across the UK to a ridge with things much more settled and with temperatures closer to average. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure in control this week before retreating away towards the SW over next weekend. With much of the UK lying on the chilly side of the High it is left to the NW to receive some early Spring warmth while the rest of us might feel rather cold in a chilly NE breeze at times. Then at the weekend a Northerly flow looks likely for all and though still dry for many pressure will start to fall across the UK. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate the High pressure 's movement West to the North of the UK through the week. With the UK lying on the Southern flank of the chilly NE winds are shown to drag weak troughs West in the flow with the ebb and flow of cloud amounts throughout.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks very settled too over the next week or so as High pressure remains in complete control with just patchy frosts and cloud disrupting the early Spring look of things. Towards the end of the run High pressure appears to be declining and moving away West to allow an attack from the North of cold and showery weather for what looks likely to be in time for the long Easter weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure receding West later this week as it moves SW from it' current positions towards a point SW of the UK in a weeks time. A dry and fine week for many this week with varying amounts of cloud and sunshine looks under threat from the NW by the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM too looks to be setting up a disappointing Easter weekend as the High pressure under complete control of the UK weather over the next week slowly gives way to the West early next week and opening the door to the North for low pressure to bring very chilly North winds and wintry showers over Easter with frosts at night. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart has strengthened it's theme of suggesting a cold and showery northerly airflow developing across the UK in time for Easter as High pressure recedes to the SW and Low pressure over Scandinavia drags colder and unstable air down from the North with the Jet stream easing South of the UK once again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK before signs of a chilly and showery Easter weekend looks equally likely on this morning's evidence.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.3 pts to 45.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The main focus on the models this morning is the growing theme of a rather chilly Easter coming up from the models as most output shows the grip that High pressure has on the UK weather lessens next week as it recedes slowly to the West of the UK. In the short term namely through this week and next weekend any changes will just focus around varying amounts of cloud day to day and the nagging and chilly NE breeze likely to be maintained across the South of the UK through the week. NW looks best for warmth especially early in the period while elsewhere daytime temperatures though near average might feel a bit cold at times but any rainfall will be very light and restricted to windward coasts and hills and from low cloud feeding in from the North Sea. Then we are increasingly seeing signs of change from the models as we move through next week as the High recedes to the West and opens the door for the UK to be under attack from the North. There are several differing versions of the way we might evolve through this period but there is sufficient evidence to say that there is a strong chance of Easter being rather cold and showery at least and a few members this morning illustrate something more generally wet and cold for a time with no doubt some snowfall over hills. It still is a fair way off and with the differing scenarios within the general theme on offer it suggests to me that nothing is guaranteed as yet so in the meantime we should enjoy the largely fine and dry conditions across the UK this High pressure is giving as it's a welcome break from the recent rains and strong winds. 

Next Update Tuesday March 15th 2016 from 09:00

Good summary as always, Martin.  As you say there are signs that the high pressure may retrogress slowly west with time: almost the worst outcome at this time of year when airmass source is so critical in determining whether it feels Spring like or more like a return to Winter.

Of course, Easters falling in March are more prone to wintry-like conditions.  Personally I'll take dry and some sunshine whatever the air temperature, within reason.

It seems it will be difficult to avoid a northerly of some description in the final week of March - in which case we should hope for a clean import with sparkling clear skies which, if you're a convective weather fan, becomes punctuated by towering cumulonimbus as surface heating gets to work under much colder air aloft 

Until then, a much appreciated break from the weather really - after issuing a number of weekly forecasts for the SE featuring headache-inducing marginal rain/snow events and a lot of transient ice threats in the mornings. it is a relief to be faced with a week that threatens little more than slight frosts where sheltered from the breeze and perhaps a bit of fog late in the week if the high drifts close enough - and even this is looking increasingly less likely as the trend is for the high to stay further W and/or N.

Summary for the week ahead:

Nothing Much.

For an idea, you can start by looking at the predicted precipitable water, which is good for an at-a-glance impression as to how much moisture will be available for cloud formation.

For example, the air is very dry across the south today, but higher precipitable water amounts move in from the North Sea by Tuesday, having already started to affect the northern half of the UK this afternoon. Satellite imagery this morning doe indeed show a veil of low cloud on the approach.

It's then a case of at what level - if any - does the atmosphere support cloud formation. 

Meteociel has a neat feature which allows you to create virtual 'soundings' of the atmosphere from WRF model data, at this link: 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_wrf.php?region=uk&ech=1&mode=2&wrf=0

Just chose a time and then click on the map wherever you want to generate a sounding for.

I have picked two examples for the heart of England, the left one for today, the right for tomorrow. Unfortunately the images don't display clearly at all in terms of numbers so I can only really work with the fact that the red line is the air temperature, and the bright blue line is the dew point. The closer together these are, the closer to saturation - and potentially cloud formation - the air is.

For today's sounding, we can see that the dew point is a long way below the air temperature until very low in the atmosphere. This makes cloud formation unlikely except at very low levels - and this has been realised in the form of some radiation fog this morning with sparkling clear skies above.

Tomorrow's sounding tells a different story. High up in the atmosphere we can still see some dry air - which is a feature that high pressure brings, as dry air descends from aloft (known as anticyclonic dry air descent). Nearer to the surface, however, conditions are closet to saturated. Given that this is an estimated 'average' state, this suggests plenty of scope for cloud formation, but with room for some breaks as well, with some sunny spells coming through.

Right near the surface (lowest km of the atmosphere I think - the scale is so out of focus!) there is a totally saturated layer which could mean dense fog or (very) low cloud. So there is the risk of a thin shelf of near-continuous low cloud forming beneath a more broken layer of cumulus, the latter greatly limiting the ability of the sun to try and punch through the low cloud.
Whether a particular location sees that or not will come down to other variables such as how much vertical movement of air there is (e.g. turbulence) and whether there is high terrain upwind, which could hold up some or all of the low level moisture.

I'd not be surprised to see a shallow veil of low cloud plaguing areas east of the Pennines tomorrow, while to the west there is a cumulus regime with some sunny spells.

I hope this has proved an effective answer to your question, SFB - though I expect there's more to be considered (cloud formation is not my area of focus for the time being).

JFF 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_336_preciptype.png?cb=289

Easter Egg Hunt in the Snow?

I notice that from the 3rd week of February onwards the convection mechanism really changes. Before the lake effect dominates, but at this time I suspect Solar heating will dominate with a big temperature contrast between the boundry layer and the rest of the troposphere being the principle cause of instability.

What it effectively means is that the enphasis switches away from coasts (particularly at night) to inland areas (particularly during the day). It also probably goes someway to explaining why spring snow rarely settles, even in mid winter stuff that falls during daylight hours doesn't tend to lie (unless its frontal). 

Some real gems in the ensembles. Pertubation 3 has a long fetch NErly. Very snowy!

Pertubation 10 is 2013esque.

Pertubation 17 has a continental Erly that brings frigid air to the SE:

it also finishes off with a long fetch NErly!

These are just some of the highlights. The majority have the -10C line over some part of the UK during the run, the most common theme seems to be an incoherant northerly. I'd say the chances of a cold spell are high, and there is a possibility of something really interesting

Off topic to an extent, but have been keeping an side eye on Atlantic SSTs and it appears that negative anoms are increasing a little again, much as they did this around time last year. This latest chart I have to admit looks a bit overblown in terms of blues:

and while I know there are many many other factors at play that influence our weather, I can't help but think that another crap, dull winteresque summer might be on the cards if this trend in Atlantic SSTs continue.

A clear picture of the anomalies, with the neutral range in white, as should really be the case for all anomaly maps IMO.

The extent of the cold pool south is less than it was when I last looked in January, but otherwise it's still going pretty strong. It will be quite revealing if the late spring and summer patterns bear much resemblance to last year's.