I forgot we are now on BST

Down side is that the models update an hour later.

The Met/o 12z 144hs could bring up some quite warm air similar to the ECM 00z.

And at +72 hrs it shows the potential for some late wintry weather some northern parts

Indeed, but I'm fed up of the cold now and would like something warmer.

Me too, it still shows it though.

As expected the Met Office has issued an amber warning for southern counties from Hampshire to Kent.

12z ARPEGE remains the nastiest looking model with gusts of 110kph quite widely inland in southern parts early tomorrow. It has been very consistent. Still showing a 972mb low.

12z GFS now coming into line with ARPEGE. Not quite as nasty but not too far off.

many sources state a cube law i.e. Power proportional to v3. If so 70mph compared to 60 mph is 343/216 or ca 1.7 for a ratio of speeds of 1.17

It's been 24 hours and no model output posts 😞 ok my simple take on things says that GEFS is showing positive signs of pressure building and temperatures going up a little too

After todays snow…… oh boy

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery SW flow will be maintained across the UK, brisk in the South with a thundery trough moving NE across the South later today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be quite low given the time of year at around 2000-3000ft for most, low enough to see wintry precipitation in the form of showers affect the hills of the UK above around 2000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is moving in an Easterly direction across Northern France but later in the week it troughs South as low pressure develops over Spain with a ridge across Southern England. The flow then settles to the NW in a NE'ly direction for a time before many options look likely in Week 2 with the flow ebbing and flowing North and South across the Atlantic and Europe later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a showery few days to come but with the trend towards drier conditions ater in the week as winds fall slack and pressure rises steadily from the SW. A Low pressure trough feeds down from the NW later in the week, weakening as it does and stalling across Central Britain. Through next week it looks like after a dry spell with some sunshine more cool and unsettled conditions spread down from the NW with rain at times and then right at the end of the run slack pressure sets up again with a lot of dry and bright weather for most.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is similar to that of the Operational Run through the first week but then a drift away from the Operational through Week 2 as deep Low pressure eventually develops to the North of the UK with a strong mobile pattern of Westerly winds with gales, rain and showers return to all areas again as we move deeper into April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show an 85% chance of Low pressure lying over or close to the UK with rain at times for all in cyclonic winds should it verify. The remaining 15% show High pressure to the SW and Westerly winds across the UK with Atlantic troughs likely to just affect the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a brief drier and brighter interlude towards the end of the week with a ridge of High pressure from the SW responsible. However, a trough to the NW will move SE and stall across Central UK over the weekend while pressure falls gently everywhere resulting in more showery and unsettled weather again for many areas to end the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery airflow across the UK through the rest of this week as pressure builds from the SW. However, it becomes squeezed by a trough moving down from the NW and Low pressure across Europe. The trough is shown to stall across the Central UK with warmer air wafting North across Southern districts for a time at the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM shows a changeable pattern across the UK in the coming 10 days as the current showery flow weakens in the coming days with a better end of the week for most as a weak ridge pushes across from the SW. Pressure then falls, partly responsible as a trough to the NW weakens and stalls across the Central parts of the UK with Low pressure becoming dominant from Europe and eventually lying across the UK with a very showery end to the period in temperatures no better than average levels.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure sliding SE just to the West of the UK over the weekend with some rain at times, mostly in the West but some for all possible in fairly slack conditions by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows a ridge of High pressure at the end of the week stretching up from the SW across England but instantly pushing it away SE over the weekend with SW winds and troughs affecting Britain with rain at times for the weekend and start to next week. Then after several days pressure builds again from the SW and this time it's fine weather becomes maintained across the South with troughs affecting the NW of the UK with further rain at times likely late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the North with Westerly winds over the UK with rain at times likely for all, as usual in these setups heaviest in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.3 pts to 40.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Well after a very volatile Easter weekend with my own experiences very much driven by Storm Katie with large hail, thunderstorms, storm force winds and heavy rain we are looking thankfully at a rather quieter interlude of weather as we move through the rest of this week. Having said that the showery airflow across the UK will weaken only slowly with several more days of heavy showers and sunny spells before drier weather develops thanks to a ridge of High pressure moving up from the SW at the end of the week. The problem is that a trough of Low pressure will be moving down from the NW and pushing the ridge away SE and allowing a SW flow to develop with rain at first restricted to areas around the vicinity of the trough becoming more widespread later as pressure gently falls across the UK. Thereafter, the pattern becomes much less clear with a lot of output suggesting a return to unsettled and showery conditions across the UK as Low pressure is shown in various guises between the models to lie close by backed by ensemble data. It seem the previous anticipations of High pressure building to the North and NE of the UK has become less likely over recent runs which means that with time it maybe that the most rain falls across the North and West with time rather than the South and West. Temperature wise looks somewhat indifferent today and while there maybe some mild air floating about there is also some colder charts shown too with the rest keeping things generally close to average. So in summary while the next week of weather looks fairly reliably stated in this morning's output details are far less clear as we look through the second week although thankfully there looks no repeat of any stormy weather in the South that we experienced down here over Easter Sunday Night. Unfortunately there are equally few signs of anything particularly settled and Springlike shown as yet either.

Next Update Wednesday March 30th 2016 from 09:00

And back on topic (unless I have wandered into the Sciences thread by mistake) . . . looking mild in a very pleasant kind of way over the South East on Sunday should the sun stay out for long enough. It is a fair ol' way off in forecasting terms but it shows how there seems to be less of a "refrigerator" effect around the Kent coast with the SSTs being mild for this time of year.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Westerly flow will lie across the UK today with a ridge of High pressure developing NE from the SW across the UK tomorrow with the ridge then sliding SE on Friday as a strengthening SW flow ahead of a cold front moves SE late in the day

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain quite low given the time of year at around 2000-3000ft for most, low enough to see wintry precipitation in the form of showers affect the hills of the UK above around 2000ft though there will be less of them than recently.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will develop a NE flow across the UK later in the weekend before it dips South to the West of the UK while weakening through the early days of next week. The flow then becomes cut off to the South while the flow to the North remains stronger while still moving NE to the NW of us, Later in the run the flow moves South and travels East to the South of the UK with unsettled conditions returning to all of the UK under Low pressure. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current situation of gently rising pressure in a weakening showery Westerly flow replaced by a ridge of High pressure moving across the UK towards the end of the working week. Over the weekend a cold front will move SE with some rain across the North and West with a few showery days then expected under warmer Southerly winds for a day or so. Then next week High pressure to the SW becomes instrumental with NW winds and cooler air with some rain from troughs moving SE down over the North and East at times. Then towards the end of the run the High is shown to recede with a stronger Westerly flow for all with rain at times for all and temperatures close to average.

GFS CONTROL RUN The only difference in the theme of the Control Run from the Operational offering today is the timing of the day to day events in the otherwise common theme described above.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show complete support for each other in that Low pressure is likely to be dominant, most likely centred towards the NW of the UK with winds from a west or NW flow. At worst 30% of members suggest Low pressure centred across the heart of the UK with a cocktail of rain and April showers very much the likely scenario in average temperatures at best.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a cold front moving SE at the start of the weekend stalling as Low pressure slips SE close to the SW. Rain in the North and West will be followed by a couple of warmer and showery days especially in the west and SW before High pressure builds towards the North by the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery airflow across the UK as a developing ridge of High pressure moves across the UK later this week. Following on the trough from the NW is shown to stall with slack pressure gradients likely for most and some showers towards the West. The last chart the 120hr chart will likely be modified tonight as the Low pressure complex it shows over the UK is looking less likely from more recent updates.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM looks less likely than some other output in developing much in the way of High pressure and drier weather next week. Instead it shows a complex showery situation developing next week as Low pressure meanders across the UK reinforced later by developments from the Northwest leaving the end of the run with Low pressure having moves SE across us and leaving a cold and showery end of the period in it's wake.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a weaker version of the GEM scenario with the showery period next week beginning to become reinforced from the NW too by this time next week therefore unlikely to support any long lasting settled period developing soon.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM has never really bought into the dry spell next week and this morning proves no exception with Low pressure regaining  control early next week with heavy showers and rain at times in lower temperatures looking likely after a warmer weekend. With the UK lying under a weakness in pressure with High pressure to the NE and SW further Low pressure is likely to dominate later in the run with further showers and rain at times in sometimes cool conditions for early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows an elongated Low pressure zone lying SE from Southern Greenland through the UK to NW Europe likely at the Day 10 time point indicating unsettled and showery conditions the most likely weather in 10 days in temperatures unspectacular for early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.5 pts to 59.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 41.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS I'm afraid I feel very underwhelmed and uninspired by this morning's output and I feel that feeling will be felt by many as the charts refuse to indicate any sustained period of dry and settled weather over the next few weeks. Having said that there will be some reasonable conditions around especially over the end of this week before a cold front throws a spanner in the works for the weekend as it stalls across Central areas along with it's rainfall. There will be clearer air to the NW of it and to the SE and with air moving North across the South it could become rather warmer for a time although showers will be a threat across SW regions at times. Then next week the majority of output suggests that lower pressure to the SW could affect more of the UK especially the South and it's this Low that acts as a pivotal point of the differences in model output this morning. UKMO at day 6 has this feature well to the South by then with High pressure ridging strongly across the North. However, most of the rest of the models including many members from the ensemble data indicate this Low as a catalyst to open the door to the NW in feeding more Low pressure down across the UK and return unsettled and at least showery conditions to the UK and more importantly dropping temperatures back to average or a little below which if it occurs is shown to be maintained for the rest of the period covered by the models this morning. So while I would love to be able to report a spell of fine and warm Spring weather developing across the UK through the start of April a whiff of warmth at the weekend looks pretty isolated in nature in an otherwise pretty benign set of weather charts hinging around Low pressure near to the UK with April showers the most likely outcome in temperatures close to average or a little below at times at best.

Next Update Thursday March 31st 2016 from 09:00

Blink and you'll miss it but I think that's the first 20C of the year on the charts for Monday? First one I've seen anyway...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.gif

I'm heading to the south coast that day so warmth will be much appreciated.

ECM looks much less settled though.

April showers being forecast as we move into April - who would have thought it?

Generally very changeable with close to average temps at times.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will build across England and Wales with a trough of Low pressure moving SE across Scotland and Northern Ireland tomorrow and stalling across Central Britain on Saturday with a warmer Southerly flow developing across the South for the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains at around 3000ft asl over much of the Uk though with limited precipitation any showers will only fall over hills and mountains above about 2500ft and restricted to the spine of the Uk today. Freezing levels will rise more towards 5000ft over West and NW area tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will develop a trough just to the West of the UK which will infiltrate East across the UK and NW Europe over next week and probably beyond too with low pressure responsible from the Uk to Spain and later to the North as well with a very disorganised flow by then. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge currently building across the UK  while moving SE tomorrow and allowing a trough to move down from the NW. At the same time pressure will fall to the West and showery weather will develop from later in the weekend as the trough over Central regions by then moves back North under a warmer Southerly flow. Then with pressure becoming Low to the SE for a time next week a period of showery and cooler weather will return before pressure builds briefly over the North. Then through Week 2 Low pressure sinking South across the UK would bring further rain and showers and eventual return to a ESE flow from Europe and depending on the source of air would influence the temperatures in the by then showery airflow in the South with dry conditions towards the North and East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run uses the Azores High as the most influential factor in it's run this morning as any warmth this weekend in a brief warmer Southerly becomes eroded by a switch in winds towards the North and NW with troughs moving SE down across the North and East in particular and delivering some rain and showers in cool air. Then with the High in the Atlantic moving occasionally North and then South again winds are maintained between NW and NE with some chilly and showery conditions to be had for all at times with some frosts at night still.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today as yesterday show complex Low pressure poorly positioned for the time of year, mostly biased to be just to the East or SE of the UK with cold rain and showers the theme of the group with temperatures on the cool side of average at day 14.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a showery and relatively mild two to three days in a Southerly flow early next week before a ridge from the Azores High ridges over the UK and tempers the temperatures somewhat and kills the showers and brings a return to the chance of frost by night again midweek

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a front moving SE into the UK tomorrow displacing the ridge over England and wales SE. Pressure is falling to the West and SW at the weekend and a milder SSE flow will bring some showers into the South and West in particular, perhaps thundery and prolonged in places.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM also shows a milder showery interlude early next week before the ridge shown by other output brings a drier and slightly cooler period midweek. Then later in the run developments in Low pressure to the NW is pulled SE across the UK with rain and showers in tow and with intense High pressure over Greenland to end the period cool and showery conditions is the best we can hope for from it's 10 day setup as Low pressure loiters across the UK with cool East winds across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the general plan shown by the rest with the milder showery spell at the start of the week displaced by a drier phase under a ridge before Low pressure sinks SE across the UK in a week or so time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM completes the set with the same theme next week culminating in a deep and cold Low pressure zone across the UK in 10 days time with rain and showers and still cold enough for snow on the hills in places and no doubt some unwelcome frosts by night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure anchored across the UK in 10 days time and I se no likely changes in this scenario when this morning's chart is issued with the result being rain and showers continuing across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.6 pts to 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 40.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Despite the prospect of some higher temperatures at the weekend I wouldn't want my readers to believe this was the beginning of an early Spring warm spell, far from it in fact as this morning's output illustrates that while waiting all Winter for Northern blocking to occur to no avail lo and behold come April here it is. So with that in mind this weekends pleasant temperatures in the South but with some showers will be eroded away South by midweek under a ridge which looks like bringing quiet and benign weather but in somewhat lower temperatures and the risk of night frosts under any clear skies. It's later next week when things look like taking a nosedive again as Low pressure is pulled down from the NW, supported by by most models and bringing it  return to a spell of rain and more of those cool April showers. In fact by the second week pressure looks like becoming very High to the North or NW and this looks like winds could turn to a chilly Easterly and with Low pressure never far away from the South or SE further rain and showers in cool temperatures seems the most likely eventuality with the chance of some snow in the showers over the hills and some frost at night by the end of the period. Of course how cold any Easterly will be come the time is open to debate and all depends on the source of air over Europe beforehand but with High pressure to the NW I wouldn't mind betting it could still be very chilly on April standards. So there it is another disappointing report if it's warm Spring weather your after but with longer daylight hours now and some useable sunshine between the showers there is some better conditions mixed in with the not so good. here's hoping for something a little better from me tomorrow.

Next Update Thursday March 31st 2016 from 09:00

So the first warmth of the year are bad quality warmth with rain around?  Ticked 1 so far as to know how many bad warm quality spells will be recorded that come with lot of clouds and rain.   Normally in April any warmth are always guaranteed to be sunny and often rain and April showers during cooler than average temps. not on the warm side.

What a difference a day makes. Instead of 20C on Monday along the south coast the GFS is now showing it barely reaching 10C!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif

It show how unreliable the charts is and the graph as well if they are showing 5C then it should be 18-20C range for 5C uppers but if they show 10C then why it not showing -5C to -3C uppers for 10C max in April?  Definitely this year I will be looking out of the windows every morning to see how the weather will be since I don't trust the models at all after last year inaccurate runs especially in summer was wrong all the time.

Lol, welcome to the British climate.

Yep. 

Next week appears to be giving or offering the UK generally wet and sunny spells mixed in with chilly showers some thundery.

WSW winds turn NW'ly 96-144 hours, SE Tracking NW Atlantic to UK N Europe corner for said period.

Nights look set to stay chilly, not warm.

Warm and Sunny on this Saturday but Sunday we aware of Thundery rain et all, last but not the least.

Nice For chill out weather fans, I like it in early April, it keeps us in Low Pressure with good weather mixture, fresh as well.

The mid West N Atlantic high remains stationery and cannot it looks like staying many thousands miles West SW off UK.

I saw very warm weather in the weather maps yesterday night ahem.... for SE USA large area.

Furthermore, a good look at GFS it is showing some mild as well as cool and chilly conditions, with brief breaks in between Low Pressure areas, and it gives NW and NE Europe a chilly cool pattern and often with heavy showers with NW and North to NE winds thrown in for good measure, and it and the Bracknell fax charts do show risk of thundery showers and warm this weekend, West Central N Atlantic High pushed further S, as areas of NW SE directional Low Pressure, and Iceland to E NE Greenland High and Arctic High ver Svalbard and SE Arctic Sea to our far NNE, with NE Europe Low Pressure from Svalbard N of Greenland cross there with Northern Blocking High in place in mid to long range.

Friday has West to NW Atlantic then West NW UK dominated by active and cool Low Pressure, West Central Europe High Pressure, drags warm SE flow to London SE S UK, then it merges with eastern Mid N Atlantic Low that affects Bay of Biscay and p.m. Saturday then Sunday UK see South SW flow with spells of rain or thundery showers turns cooler for all.

😅💦🌧🌤😇.