I've thought for a while that things could be favourable for 'blowtorch heat' in northwestern Europe late spring / summer. I know it's cherry picking but some of the medium range output is showing tentative signs of supporting this.

Yes, very unsettled outlook Michael.

Stormchaser's post above makes much sense. With early-season warmth across S Europe being forecast, and if we continue to see amplication in the jetstream into the summer, I can't help but think that this summer may lead to a 2-3 day 'plume event' which may lead to temperatures exceeding 100f in the well-known hotspots in SE UK.

David, Northallerton

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by a weakening cold front moving East later tonight leading into a cool and strong showery WNW flow tomorrow and Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain between 5000ft and 7000ft over the next few days under shallow Low pressure dirfting North over the UK. By or on Wednesday the level will rise higher still across the SW for a time before falling to nearer 4000ft behind an Eastward moving cold front by Thursday with snow returning in showers to mountains above 3000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. Probably staying cool.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to maintain the Jet Stream lying well to the South of the UK in a deep trough like structure for the whole of the output this morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show a disappointing set of charts over the UK for the next few weeks. Instead of the normal flow of Low pressure West to East they look like flowing North to South across the UK next week enhancing the already mostly rather cool and showery weather with some longer spells of rain at times too along with some snow on Northern hills. Some brief drier and brighter spells are of course likely as well especially later in the period when Northern regions especially become drier and brighter under higher pressure.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the first week at least before a slow but gradual improvement is hinted at as Low pressure weakens and fills up in situ near the UK through the second week allowing for some more benign and warmer conditions to develop by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a slight shift to the likelihood of more benign conditions in two weeks time as there seems no distinctive pressure type gaining overall control over the UK weather at that time. In among the clusters 10% show High pressure across the UK at that time point and that is a marked improvement from what's been shown of late. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure well in control of conditions across the UK over it's period today. Ending up down to the SW of the UK cyclonic winds around deep Low pressure will ensure plenty more rain and showers to come across the UK over the next 6 days with temperatures suppressed apart from when any brief sunnier breaks occur, these most likely towards the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex situation developing through the latter half of this week and the weekend with rain and showers never far away from all areas. With time Low pressure becomes lodged across and to the SW of the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM is also showing a cool and largely unsettled 10 days or so to come as all eyes look to the Northwest and later North for cool Low pressure to move down across or close to the UK is maintained with rain and showers in temperatures near average at best and below at times where rain is persistent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is the warmest of the morning's output as it eventually parks Low pressure further West and allows a more enhanced Southerly drift to develop across the UK with temperatures on the rise and the worst of the rain towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM shows little sign of Spring warmth and sunshine under High pressure as it's Low pressure all the way eventually settling over or just to the SW of the UK throwing spells of rain and showers at times up across the UK. There will of course be some warmth from any April sunshine between the showers but the showers will often be heavy, thundery and prolonged especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure right across the UK with the likely weather being sunshine and showers at best with no doubt some longer spells of rain too but with some compensatory brief warmth from sunshine in between.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.4 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 40.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  I had some criticism for being a little pessimistic on the charts for yesterday and I have looked this morning for more reasons to be more optimistic but unfortunately I can't fine much reason as Low pressure and cold showers and longer spells of rain is not what most people and I included hope to see at this time of year. Given today's pleasantness I think this is likely to be the best day of this week as cold winds and April showers look likely from tomorrow on and then some longer spells of rain too later on Friday and continuing through the weekend as Low pressure parks itself close to the SW. There will of course be some drier interludes in between the rain and the strength of the sun will make any of this seem pleasant enough but no bright spell looks guaranteed to last with Low pressure so close. Eastern coasts of Scotland could become particularly cold and grey with an onshore breeze and some of the rain in the South could well be heavy and thundery. This theme looks almost set in stone between the models this morning with the exception of NAVGEM which would bring warm Southerly air more definitively up across the UK with rain more restricted towards the West and North. There may also be a slight shift towards better conditions towards the South and East late in the run of GFS supported by it's clusters so that is one straw to clutch but for now however much I try to dress it up there is little evidence of any guaranteed prolonged dry period over the next few weeks which will take us out to the end of April as long as the Jet stream remains South of the UK.

Next Update Wednesday April 6th 2016 from 09:00

Thank you martin for your output.. Always appreciated.   

Yeah..."nice"...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3724.gif

whats your point here? The nice charts are for 20th and yours 10th.. He did say that low would stick around for a week or so.

Don't worry picturesareme.

He can't read, he can't write, but he can drive a tractor.

Sorry Dave, yes it does not look good in the short to medium term but hopefully this poor set up will lead to a transition to a much better one later on. Bit of pain before the gain.

My point was that the projected warmth shown (for the 20th) was 'wet' warmth.

Great, GFS will be issuing the wrong forecast every hour rather than every 6 hours, I suppose that's progress.

Andy

😂

More critically, five more grid layers are being added above 10HPa, which should make the modelling and prediction of the consequences of SSWs even more accurate than it currently is 😜🖖

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak trough will move East over remaining parts of Central and eastern Britain followed by a cold and showery Westerly flow with an occlusion moving SE across England and Wales tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will drop to around 3000ft or so today and continue there over the next few days. There will be some snowfall over high ground above around 2500ft today and for the next few so taking in many higher hills and mountains of Scotland, Ireland, Wales and the North.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with showers or spells of rain with some brighter spells too especially over the North. Near average or slightly below average temperatures. Perhaps warmer later in the SE.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough across the UK over the next week to 10 days with the Jet flow carried well to the South of the UK. It's not until later in the second week when the trough dissipates and the flow becomes much less organized and weaker.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show unsettled and cool synoptics over the next few weeks with Low pressure gradually aligning to a point near SW England by the weekend and persisting there for quite a while bringing spells of rain and showers to many especially the South. Then through the second week the Lows weaken as a ridge moves in off the Atlantic with a drier and brighter interlude before unsettled and cool weather is shown returning from the North at the very end of the run.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the first week as it too shows Low pressure becoming established to the SW of the UK with rain or showers meandering about for all in among some sunny intervals. Then through the second week warmer air will move across England and Wales as winds turn more South or SW though still with the risk of rain especially over the West and North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a generally better trend to that of late with the majority now showing either slack conditions across the UK at worst and an interesting 5% of clusters showing an intense anticyclone over Ireland established by then. However, I would estimate a 50/50 split in members between showery and dry conditions at day 14.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure settling down to the SW of the UK over the coming weekend with troughs swinging up into Southern England and becoming slow moving across somewhere across the UK with cold and wet weather where it lies while sunshine and showers with hail and thunder in places look more likely in the South where a few warmer sunny spells between the showers look likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex situation developing through the latter half of this week and the weekend with rain and showers never far away from all areas. With Low pressure becoming lodged across and to the SW of the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures but with some warmer air en-trained across the South at times turning some of the rain thundery.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows an unsettled period to come as the current cool and showery theme is enhanced by renewed Low pressure feeding down over and to the West of the UK over this weekend. So rain and showers for all in rather cool and sometimes breezy conditions look certain. The trend is then for conditions to steadily improve next week as Low pressure fills up in situ to the SW and a ridge slowly builds across the UK by the end of next week with drier and brighter conditions for many areas then as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows Low pressure setting up shop down to the SW of the UK with cyclonic winds and rain at times likely for all throughout the weekend and start to next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM shows another unsettled run this morning with cyclonic conditions throughout the period. In the first week Low pressure developing over and then to the SW of the UK will give rise to the usual mix of showers or longer spells of rain but with a few warmer brighter intervals between the thundery showers. The North and NE may feel very cool under an Easterly for much of the time. Then towards the end of the run Low pressure realigns towards the North of the UK with a more standard blustery SW flow with rain at times and perhaps warmer and brighter conditions developing at times towards the South and East by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues to predict that in 10 days time we will still lie under a showery Low pressure close to or over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models once more this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.2 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.6 pts to 41.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Changes in the weather pattern look very slow over the next few weeks with Low pressure continuing to rule the roost. We currently are undergoing a change towards rather cold and showery conditions which will certainly feel much colder than the last few days across the South. Showers will be focused across the North today and the East tomorrow with the SW fairing not too bad outside of the strong and cold breeze. Then over Friday and the weekend another trough moving across from the west will develop a parent low pressure down to the SW which once established looks like lying in situ down there for some considerable time spiraling spells of rain ad showers North across the UK. The North and particularly NE of the UK could well become cold and grey especially near the East coast while Southern areas seeing some bright weather at times between what would likely be heavy and thundery April showers and here it could occasionally feel less cool. Then as we look over the horizon towards the second week the general consensus sees Low pressure gradually filling but remaining influential to many parts of the UK with slow moving April showers. With pressure high at Northern latitudes and with some output suggesting another surge of cool air moving down from the NE later in the second week it could be that Low pressure becomes established further but hopefully this time more towards the North of the UK and perhaps allowing the South and East to eventually see some drier and warmer periods between more broken spells of wind and rain with the emphasis of the worst weather to be more traditionally towards the North and West. It looks once more this morning that reliable dry, fine and warm Spring conditions are a figment of imagination in this morning's output and it looks increasingly likely that we will have to wait for late April at least to see temperatures comfortably in the mid teens or above regularly. 

Next Update Thursday April 7th 2016 from 09:00

Well after the teasing model output (and subsequent Buzz commentary) suggesting the possibility of a warm plume on the weekend of the 17th it's rather annoying to see this sort of thing!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.gif

-5C at 850 resulting in temperatures struggling to get out of single figures even in the south. Not very good for the second half of April!

Nor for my monthly CET 'forecast'

This is the point where the coldest air in the entire northern hemisphere gathers on our doorstep and where a 30 degree shift in the wind direction would send it to us.

Snow in April is not rare, its still the same game; getting the isobars to point in the right direction although at this time of year the margin for error is quite a bit lower.

Doubt it will come to anything, but we do have HLB for the first time in a while!

Intuitively it sounds odd doesn't it, but when you think about synoptics a warm southerly plume and an arctic northerly are much more similar to each other than they are to a standard westerly; and the number of times you have a flip flop between very mild and very cold seems really big in the spring where both cold and warm airmasses are close by.

Good points, very true.

I was referring more to the difficulty determining which comes before the or ther - or dominates - for much of the 7-14 day period.

Also the potential magnitude of each is notably great - the cold pooling not far to our N/NE you noted, and some hot air building across central/NW Europe that would be fitting several weeks from now.

Forecast set up does not look unlike that which occurred towards the end of April last year as air masses clashed in and around the NE Atlantic region.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool NW flow over the UK will weaken as a weak trough clears SE over England this afternoon with an area of slack pressure ahead of an occluded front approaching Western and SW Britain later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain below average for this time in April hovering around the 3000ft mark for much of the time though rising briefly across the SW later tomorrow before falling to as low as below 2000ft behind an occlusion on Saturday. As a result some snowfall is expected in showers above 1000ft today and possible 600ft on Saturday in the West.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Unsettled with showers or spells of rain with some brighter spells too especially over the North. Near average or slightly below average temperatures. Perhaps warmer later in the SE.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough or circulation to the South of  the UK over the next week to 10 days with the Jet flow only slowly recovering it's way Northwards in a NE flow over the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of cyclonic conditions across the UK over the first week. With Low pressure to the SW the UK will be subject to areas of rain and showers moving up from the SW periodically with some quite chilly conditions across the North. Then from the beginning of Week 2 the unsettled and cool conditions will slowly give way to drier and brighter weather especially towards the South and East with the unsettled weather restricted towards the North and West by the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is less optimistic in the second week as Low pressure after a brief lull re-invigorates and moves across the UK from the West with rain and showers for all still with just a hint of better weather moving in from the West and SW right at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a Low pressure bias again at Day 14 though positioning and influence to what areas is harder to interpret with a 20% cluster indicating a more High pressure based pattern at that point with drier and quieter conditions as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure a little less influential as we move through the start of next week as it's positioning seems further to the SW than on previous runs and while some rain and showers is likely across the South and SW in particular some dry and breezy weather is likely in the North where it will feel cool. This period of relatively unsettled conditions then looks like continuing as we move towards the second half of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure setting up shop down to the SW of the UK over the weekend and start to next week with rain and showers spilling North across the UK from time to time occasionally accompanied by strong and cool SE winds while some warmer brighter periods also look possible especially towards the East and North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today continues it'e recent pattern of maintaining it's unsettled feel throughout the next 10 days with Low pressure dominant down to the SW at first then after a brief respite towards the middle of next week we see further Low pressure across the UK later which will maintain an unsettled and sometimes cool feel to conditions with rain and showers for all right out to day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also maintains a very unsettled outlook with Low pressure down to the SW influential throughout. Rain or showers would be the order of the day with some longer spells of both wet and drier conditions for all the latter especially in the early part of the week in the North while  by the end of the run all areas look at risk of some strong winds and rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM shows largely unsettled conditions continuing over the next week as Low pressure slips South to lie to the SW of the UK. Rain and showers can be expected for all through this period through the far NE may see the least of this while it is cold in a raw East wind. Some warmer and drier interludes could occur between the showers in the South. Then towards the end of the period a change in the charts indicate dry and settled conditions under UK based High pressure having developed with sunny spells and the risk of slight night frosts likely should this pattern evolve.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure further to the West and SW than of late at 10 days with resultant milder Southerly winds and rain or showers restricted towards the South and West rather than elsewhere possible if this develops as shown.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models once more this morning though there is a trend towards improvements later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.8 pts to 41.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There are slow changes shown within the output again this morning but at least such changes do appear to be leaning towards somewhat better conditions over all developing late in the period. If these improvements are to verify we have to lose the deep trough expected to develop down to the SW of the UK in a few days time where it looks in no hurry to move from for some considerable time. Nevertheless, some output has placed this feature a little more to the SW today and if this is so some warmer continental air may be allowed to filter across the South at times with less in the way of rain and showers too away from the SW. It looks like the North will stay cool under an Easterly feed, particularly so in the far NE. Then as the Lo to the SW fills somewhat it still looks possible for it to be re-invigorated by another tongue of cold air moving SW from Norway and engaging in the Low pressures circulation to the SW and creating a resurgence of wet and unsettled conditions at times later next week. However, having said that ECM has moved away from this theme and splitting Low pressure to the SW and NE then with High pressure which would settled things down nicely next weekend. Other output too show the chance of lifting Low pressure towards the NW which would give rise to another route to rather better weather across the South and East with milder air in tow. So in summary while some improvements are shown today it needs all the jigsaw pieces to fall in the right places for it to verify and with still a lot of cool and unstable air around on the charts this morning we may well have to be patient for marked improvements in the overall pattern to develop. However, it is April and any sunshine will make all the difference to how things feel and while unsettled remains the nature of this morning's report it's not all doom and gloom and quite normal for this time in Spring  

Next Update Friday April 8th 2016 from 09:00