Amazing plume in FI from P9 with temps reaching 30°C over N France.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/9_276_850tmp.png?cb=980

(Nothing wrong with a bit of fruit harvesting when the thread's gone dry.)

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK today will be followed by an occluded front moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a slack and showery cold flow over the South and West tomorrow in association with a deepening Low pressure area to the SW of the UK on Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK around 3500ft across the UK currently will rise briefly in association with a trough moving NE over the UK tonight. It then falls to as low as 1700ft over Southern and Western England and Wales for 24 hours or so before levels rise towards 5000ft+ early next week. There could be some snowfall over modest hills of the South and West tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with showers or spells of rain with some brighter spells too especially over the North. Near average or slightly below average temperatures. Perhaps warmer later in the SE.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough or circulation to the South of  the UK over the next week to 10 days with the Jet flow realigning towards the North of the UK later in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of showery and unsettled weather across the UK over the next week as Low pressure to the SW remains in situ and extends in a belt across the UK at times delivering showers and longer spells of rain at times with temperatures recovering to nearer average in the South but remaining on the cool side over the North. then through the second week High pressure builds back over the UK from the NW settling things down to dry and fine weather for many although the positioning of the High on this run allows for a chilly Northerly flow to affect the East coast at times perhaps with the odd shower and frosts at night still look a real possibility under any clear skies by the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run as yesterday is less optimistic surrounding improvements over Week 2 as Low pressure areas transfer to over or to the North and NE of the UK with cyclonic winds and a continuation of spells of rain and showers continuing for all out to the end of the run and it will remain largely cool too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show almost complete Low pressure dominance across the UK in two weeks time with the positioning favouring Northern Britain with cool Atlantic West or NW winds bringing rain and showers at times for all. Of those members that show any deviation to this pattern are not offering anything better to be honest.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a breezy and unsettled start to the new week with Low pressure always in close proximity. There will be spells of rain and showers for all in temperatures at best near average and rather cool in the NE flow on the Northern flank of the Low pressure belt across the UK by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure setting up shop down to the SW of the UK over the weekend and start to next week with rain and showers at times, the showers most likely across the South and the longer spells of rain across Central parts as fronts stagnate with the driest weather but coolest conditions by then in the far North while some less cool conditions are likely to move into the South at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows the synoptic pattern stuck in a rut once Low pressure develops close to the SW of the UK over the next few days, Throughout the period showers or longer spells of rain look likely almost everywhere and any when with some drier and brighter spells mixed in too and temperatures after a cool weekend could recover somewhat across the South with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also maintains a very unsettled outlook with Low pressure down to the SW remaining in control of the weather for the upcoming week weakening for a time midweek but reinvigorated again in time for next weekend and all the while maintaining at least the risk of rain and showers at times for most of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today continues illustrate similar synoptics to the rest of this morning's outputs with only tentative improvements hinted at towards the end of it's 10 day period. So Low pressure to the SW will extend across the UK at times with rain and showers at times with some brief drier periods too. Then at the very end of the period the link between Low pressure to the NE and SW is severed with a slack area of pressure developing meaning somewhat drier and warmer conditions look likely by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure painfully close to the West of the UK with cyclonic winds likely across the UK at 10 days with rain or thundery showers at times still the order of the likely conditions expected for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models once more this morning. The trend towards yesterday's shown improvements has been somewhat muted again this morning with little change in the overall changeable and occasionally wet conditions.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.0 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.7 pts to 60.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.9 pts to 41.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models have shown a lot of consistency this week in maintaining their projection of Low pressure developing down to the SW of the UK this weekend and here we are at Friday and that is still the message shown by all output without exception. The problems arrive that once there how long will it remain there and how will we eventually break out of the pattern. I begun to think yesterday that the Low would eventually fill and allow higher pressure to gain more influence with warmer conditions given time and that message is still hinted at by some members of each model. However, there is also a lot of focus on a surge of cold air to flood SW over the Norwegian Sea next week  and getting caught up in the circulation of Low pressure close to or over the UK by then serving to deepen it again and strengthen the risk of further spells of wind, rain and showers. Of course day to day details on this pattern depends on how exactly it evolves but it does look like the next 10-14 days look fairly unsettled and cool with showers or longer spells of rain at times mixed in with some drier and brighter periods when in April sunshine it should not feel too bad. This type of pattern is not too untypical of April as the April showers saying is testament too and it does give the opportunity for some big shower clouds to grace our skies on occasion with the words 'hail and thunder' a part of the weather forecasts for the next week or so at least almost anywhere. Temperatures look like they might recover across the South given time but it does look like staying largely cool across the North throughout. So that's it from me for today, I will be taking a day off from the models tomorrow but will be back on Sunday morning for a roundup of what lies ahead for the next few weeks across the UK.   

Next Update Sunday April 10th 2016 from 09:00

Cheers as always, Gibby. Looks like being a good start for farmers and growers alike but a bit more patience may be require in terms of hoping for early warmth and prolonged dry & sunny weather. A reminder that it IS April in the United States of Kingdom after all.

I've got this idea of a repeat of last Sunday's surprise plume-like thundery weather taking place at this end for Sunday night or Monday morning, if this Fax chart is anything to go by on.



However, it is a long way off in forecasting terms and I've not run it over with a fine tooth comb in terms of looking for other clues in the other available models.

A clearer signal now emerging for a trough to drop down west of Iberia in the 8-10 day range and produce unseasonable heat across much or all of continental NW and Central Europe.

The UK may briefly get in on the act too. GFS has the plume getting about as close as ECM has it and we can see mid-20's maximums making it to northern France:

There's a chance that the warm air will make greater inroads, with dramatic results - but it's looking like it won't have a big window in which to do so, as the strong blocking N and NE of the UK is poised to drive some of the coldest air in the N. hemisphere in our direction.

The GFS takes that idea about as far as possible, resulting in maximums barely making it to double digits even in the south in the third week of April - it would make for among the coldest weeks in the second half of April on record.

Here's the two ends of extremes from the GEFS 12z suite:

Evidently the GFS 12z was colder in the 10-16 day period than any of the ensembles for the south at least. Before then, some scope for a greater import of warm air in the 8-10 day period, but the hottest 12z GEFS perturbation falls some way short of the hottest from the 00z, which had 18*C 850hPA temps brushing the south coast! (Kindly posted on FB by Dave this morn).

That would probably break the April record for max temperature. The heat across eastern Spain and all of France is akin to an early summer heatwave! 

That looks like a really warm chart. 26C if that pays off.

Some noteworthy accumulated rainfall totals for the time of year thanks to the persistence of low pressure to the SW of the UK this week, I wouldn't mind betting on some thundery events too as warm air from the south gets into the mix at times. .

That would be my take on it as well. Interesting times

No posts in this thread for more than 24 hours must mean there is little change in the outputs without me looking at it.

However, I then have had a skeg through them and I must admit that GFS, GEM and NAVGEM are a bit "face palm", but UKMO and ECM does offer a bit more hope in terms of settled, drier and warmer weather in the medium range. All a long way off, of course.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deepening depression lies down to the SW of the British isles today with a developing East or SE flow across the UK, very strong in the SW. Troughs of Low pressure will swing up across the South and West of the UK later today and more especially tomorrow while the East flow steadily slackens again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The cold uppers across the UK with freezing levels under 2000ft will lift today and tomorrow with levels exceeding 5000ft for all and perhaps as high as 6500ft across Eastern Britain removing the risk of snowfall above all summits south of Scotland in the next few days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather unsettled with some rain or showers at times. Probably turning drier with time especially across the North and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  All indications are that the Jet Stream will remain well South of the UK for some considerable time from this morning's predictions from GFS influenced by persistent Low pressure down to the SW of the UK for much of the period. It may change it's alignment somewhat in Week 2 but maintain a position far from ideal for any major Spring warm outbreak for the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today endorses the Jet Stream forecast above with Low pressure down to the SW of the UK dominant throughout the coming week as spores from it evolve NE across the UK. In week 2 more Low pressure over or near the UK maintains showers and longer spells of rain and strong winds too a risk but with as always some drier and brighter exceptions at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is pretty much the same although day to day differences are apparent and in Week 2 a gradual erosion away from the South of the lowest pressure swings winds into a strong West or SW point with some drier and warmer spells developing across the South and East with time and pushing the worst of the wind and rain away to the more traditional pattern of the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show a very mixed bag of options possible in 14 days ranging from a continuation of unsettled UK based Low pressure pattern whereas there is some more encouraging evidence of higher pressure close by from about 25% of members.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a more encouraging picture than of late as Low pressure to the SW weakens through the week and a ridge of High pressure gradually extends some influence down across the UK from the NW so that many places could end the week rather drier though with rather chilly air at times especially over the North and East where frosts at night look possible along with some showers near the East coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate a very complex week of weather to come with the day to day detail very hard to pin down from place to place but in general it would appear that some rain or showers can be expected for many especially across the South where it could feel rather warmer than of late all due to Low pressure and troughs feeding up from the SW at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows another version of the unsettled theme with it showing Low pressure near or over the UK in the coming week with rain at times along with some cool air too at times especially over the North. Then a brief drier spell looks likely across the South and East as pressure builds there before further Low pressure off the Atlantic moves SE into the UK later with more rain and showers for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a very slack Low pressure area across the UK for much of the next week fuelling a lot of heavy and slow moving thundery showers for many especially over inland areas through the afternoons with some cool and clear nights empowering the risk of some ground frosts by night especially over the North. Being April though some warm sunshine will also be present for all, warmest in the Sooth in the first half of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM on the other hand follows it's partner UKMO in showing rather better conditions developing later in the week as Low pressure to the SW weakens and a ridge pushes down across the UK from the NW culminating in a High pressure area near the North Sea by next weekend which then gently evolves NE to allow a SE flow to develop across the UK with rain bearing fronts over the Atlantic appearing to hold off towards the far SW by the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from this morning is a very complex chart giving few if any clues as to what we can expect in 10 days time. On the face of it the chart is much improved from recent days but this is a day when the chart offers little depiction of what we might expect as there is a fairly even split of members opting for showery Low pressure persisting and those that show High pressure more influential towards the NE of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Although there is still a fair amount of support for Low pressure based conditions to continue across the UK there are encouraging signs from the most reputable models of UKMO and ECM that the other models may be too progressive in their prediction and that as a result rather drier and more benign conditions could more likely develop towards next weekend and beyond.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.9 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 39.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  There are a few more encouraging signs from some of the most respected models this morning as this weeks anticipated Low pressure might not give us the persistent rain and showers that previous model runs indicated. However, the pattern is far from straightforward as Low pressure to the SW in a cut off condition that it is can be notoriously fickle beasts for models to deal with as the general filling and movement of the Low can be instrumental in where we move thereafter and there are plenty of very feasible options on the table this morning ranging from unsettled, wet, windy and cool weather to dry and bright conditions with a benign pressure pattern across the UK hinted at by the Euros. I think a few more days are needed before the end of the week pattern can become more agreed and established between the models and while that time is elapsing it looks like some rain or showers will continue across the UK, especially in the South until the middle of the week at least and in that time it will feel rather warmer at times than of late. So rather than dwell on which models have the best handle on the longer term synoptics I will wait a day or two more before casting any judgement on what lies ahead of us beyond this week. The one thing I can say is that there is nothing nasty likely for anyone and it all shapes up to be a far from untypical pattern for this time in Spring.   

Next Update Monday April 11th 2016 from 09:00

Ssssh! Don't give him any ideas!

I suspect it might get a bit more lively in here toward next weekend as there is the potential for a cold snap with overnight frosts

and below average temperatures,could be winters last breath?

I'm looking forward to his reports already While I am sure some people may see his posts as being a bit grumpy, his command of the English language is simply astonishing. A true wordsmith.

The pattern appears to have got itself into such a cool rut, it looks like we are going to have sit this one out for a while before things warm up. A waste with some of the forecast set ups not being in Winter.
A hope was prolonged low pressure to the south west would eventually feed up warm air on its eastern flank, but on this occasion we will be too much under the influence of air masses to the north.
Can only hope that something will break the mould before too long and quite how that will come about as we look for signals.

Midnight's GFS is a cold wet nightmare until month end, has been very volatile lately though.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A large depression lies well to the SW of the UK with an occluded front across Ireland, Wales and Central Southern England. This will swing North across Eastern Britain later to lie East to West over Northern England by tomorrow with a slack airflow across the South promoting thundery showers by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures have risen across the UK over the last 24 hours with the level expected to lie between 5000ft and 6000ft across the South in the coming days with levels a little lower than this at times over the North. Little if any snow is expected to fall across the UK in the coming days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather unsettled with some rain or showers at times. Probably turning drier with time especially across the North and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  All indications are that the Jet Stream will remain steered by Low pressure down to the SW of the UK through this week. It does weaken with time late in the week and become more variable in position as pressure builds across the UK for a time in the middle of the period. Then towards the end of the run Low pressure looks to re-establish across the UK with the Jet Stream pulled South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a largely unsettled couple of weeks although having said that of you live across the North and East a lot of dry and none too warm weather looks likely too. Low pressure to the SW takes all week and much of next weekend to finally move across the South of the UK and away to the East taking it's rain and showers with it. Then pressure builds strongly to the North with a SE flow setting up with some rain restricted to the SW. Then as a tongue of cold air is drawn West over the North Sea and engages with Low pressure near the UK deepening Low pressure over us and ending the period with wet and windy conditions for all across the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is pretty supportive of the theme of the Operational Run so we should expect a similar showery and unsettled period especially across Southern Britain whereas the best of the dry and brighter conditions look likely across the North and in particular the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a 10% cluster who support High pressure across the UK in 14 days time. However, the vast majority of members continue to project Low pressure more likely to lie somewhere in the vicinity of the UK with rain or showers at times with average temperatures overall.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a less encouraging end of the week again this morning as the previously projected ridge of High pressure building down across the UK on yesterday's output is delayed at least as Low pressure holds a foothold across the South of the UK with showers and some more prolonged rain in places but some dry and cool conditions at times in the far North and bright, warmer weather in the far South too between the downpours.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate a very complex week of weather to come too with the day to day detail very hard to pin down from place to place but in general it would appear that some rain or showers can be expected for many especially across the South where it could feel rather warmer than of late all due to Low pressure and troughs feeding up from the SW at times while the North sees cooler conditions with troughs feeding down from the North towards the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows another version of the unsettled theme with it showing Low pressure near or over the UK in the coming week with rain at times along with some cool air too at times especially over the North. Then a brief drier spell looks likely under a brief rise in pressure before further Low pressure off the Atlantic moves SE into the UK later with more rain and showers for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a Low pressure trough ensconced across the South of the UK through this week with the best of the weather in the far North but heavy showers and outbreaks of rain likely elsewhere on most days before a slow improvement is shown to develop down across the UK from the NW for the weekend albeit a bit on the cool side especially at night by then as a ridge of High pressure builds across.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM on the other hand follows the theme of yesterday albeit rather slower to develop. The weekdays sees slack Low pressure maintain showery conditions across the South with cool winds and rain at times lodged across the North. Then by and over the weekend High pressure builds down across the UK from the North and then a much more quiet and benign period of weather looks likely in a ESE flow for all with the best and warmest conditions likely to be in the far West and NW with most places staying dry by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night again offers few clues as to where we are in 10 days time with slack pressure not only over the UK but also over the Atlantic and Europe too so though no bad weather is expected whether the weather be dry or showery remains a little unclear.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Although there is still a fair amount of support for Low pressure based conditions to continue across the UK there are still slightly weaker signs than yesterday that some better weather might develop as High pressure tries to build down across the UK from the North displacing the Low pressure influence from the SW.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.9 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.4 pts to 58.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.8 pts to 39.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS A new week and the weather continues to live up to a very normal April standard with plenty of days this week of sunshine and showers, heavy and thundery in places but with some warm sunshine too. In the North skies will be cloudier and as a result cooler with occasional rain here too though the far North could stay dry. All of this remains driven by Low pressure down to the SW which takes at least until the weekend to either fill or move away East allowing the ridge to the NW to sink it's influence down across all of the UK with time. UKMO has separated from it's partner ECM this morning and has reverted to show influence of a tongue of cold uppers to move SW across the North Sea and culminate in another Low pressure zone over or near the UK by next Sunday with GFS also looking less hopeful longer term. However, having said all of the above because the driving pressure systems controlling our weather this week are so slow moving I think we can expect more swings from the models through the coming week as small adjustments to the positioning of troughs, Low and High pressure in the generally expected slack air flows over the UK through the period could mean the patterns and details in conditions place to place will be difficult to predict. However, there looks a good chance of some warmth in the sunshine between the showers across the South and though cold air and the risk of frost remains a possibility over the North this is all standard Spring fayre for the UK and as a result we can continue to watch the pattern of spring growth and wildlife continue unaffected by weather in the coming few weeks.    

Next Update Tuesday April 12th 2016 from 09:00 

I remember 27C in April once. I do believe that to get a new all time high for April we'd have to hit 30C.

That would take some doing.