Looks cold and wet for the east/northeast especially.

A bit to early for real warmth and thunder but with time that hopefully that will come.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure remains centred to the SW of the UK with a slack and unstable airflow across the South of the UK ahead of a slow moving trough across Northernmost England and Southern Scotland. Little change in this general setup is likely over the next few days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 5000ft across the UK currently and for the South this looks like the level they remain at for the rest of this week. In the North the level will slowly fall later in the week to around 3500ft

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather unsettled with some rain or showers at times. Probably turning drier with time especially across the North and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will be troughed down to the SW of the UK  over the next 5-6 days with only slow changes thereafter with a split flow developing for a time next week, one South and one North of the UK before the Northern arm merges with the one to the South with an indecisive final positioning of the flow looking likely by the end of the two week period. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a changeable pattern with all changes being slow and subtle. In the next week it looks like a slow migration of Low pressure currently to the SW moving across Southern England and away to the East over the weekend looks likely with all the time big showers and some more prolonged rainfall between warm sunny intervals the order of each day. High pressure is then shown to build across the Uk early next week with a spell of dry and bright weather with temperatures near average by day but cool at night with some frosts. Then further unsettled and cool conditions moves down from the North later next week with the run ending with a NW flow across the UK with rain at times over the North and East while the best weather develops over the SW in generally rather cool conditions.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is similar to the operational in theme but day to day differences are of course apparent as we move deeper into the period with the second week offering a mix of rain and showers at times and some days of fine and bright weather as Lows and Highs battle for supremacy over and around the UK in a confused second half of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show quite strong support for High pressure to lie out to the West of the UK in some shape or form which would lead to the UK lying under a chilly NW or North flow with some showers in places especially over the North and East.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows there is still a lot of mileage left in the showery theme across the UK currently. The Low pressure to the SW slowly migrates ENE across the South later in the week and that is followed by a ridge of High pressure collapsing SE down the North Sea changing winds towards the SE by the start of next week with showers still a risk in the South and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate only slow improvements over the North in the next 5 days but none at all in the South as shallow Low pressure continues to lie close to Southern England later in the week with a concoction of troughs ensuring plenty more showers and outbreaks of rain for these areas while colder and drier air from the NE slowly filters down from the North by the end of Day 5.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather for a further 4-5 days before a change to higher pressure and a more conventional pressure pattern of High pressure lying over or close to the UK next week brings about a cessation in rain and showers with time to a quiet and more benign period next week with some sunshine and average temperatures by day but possibly chilly nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows pressure patterns only changing very slowly as Low pressure remains slow moving near to Southern England over the weekend and start to next week all the time promoting some heavy showers at times over the South whereas the North may become largely dry of cool from the weekend as a ridge slowly exerts some influence for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today while offering no heatwave does promote changes in the pattern from the end of the weekend as High pressure ridges in strongly from the West. How long it lasts look very tentative as the threat of cold air flooding South over the UK looks strong just to the North of the UK on a couple of occasions from the weekend and while certainly a drier prospect looking likely temperatures look suppressed with some unwelcome night frosts feasible especially in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is gradually settling into thoughts of High pressure ridging down from the North in 10 days which if evolved would deliver fine and bright weather for many with a chilly North wind in the east and the risk of some night frosts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The biggest messages from today's output is the slow improvements indicated from Low pressure very slow to lose influence from Southern Britain and the extent of High pressure ridges moving down over the UK next week and how long this theme lasts.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.2 pts to 58.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.3 pts to 38.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Changes remain slow within the charts this morning with another 5-6 days at least of this Low pressure area to the SW extending influence across Southern England giving rise to sunny spells but big showers, heavy and slow moving at times. In the North colder air will be en-trained and this could be enhanced by the weekend dragging drier air South by the start of next week and with a variety of pressure patterns showing High pressure in some shape or form becoming influential for a while better weather should reach the South too but never overly warm with the risk of night frosts a very real one. then as we look further out into the second week there is no clear cut theme shown but there does at least seem a propensity to keep winds blowing from a chilly North direction with High pressure eventually somewhere out to the west and SW with the best weather developing there while the North and East might see some rain in a chilly NW breeze. It's only UKMO that supports a SE breeze developing next week as it's High pressure slips SE over the North Sea. So as you can tell still a lot of indecision in the models longer term this morning and while nothing particularly unusual is being shown it looks unlikely the magic 21C  70F figure is likely to be breached within the term of the outputs on offer this morning with a greater chance of some night frosts still if skies clear overnight under the higher pressure next week.    

Next Update Wednesday April 13th 2016 from 09:00 

Thanks, Gibby, for the first regular read of the day - keep them coming!

In respect of the MetO putting high pressure over the N Sea, they themselves weren't too certain last night (the 2155 bulletin), saying only that this was the most probable outcome, but that low pressure could instead move in and completely cover the UK

For the people saying 'what a waste', here is some optimism for you.

The main problem with northerlies in mid winter is that without any feature the main snow maker is the lake effect; if you do not live near a north or east facing coast  you are unlikely to see anything but clear crisp blue skies. However, now we are in mid April this requirement no longer holds because the sun is able to heat the boundary layer enough such that convection can develop showers on the land. 

This is the advantage of a northerly this late; dramatic heavy wintry showers are not restricted to coastal areas.

Situation for Friday.

Weak cold front to the west of Ireland bringing some cloud and patchy rain. Occluded front over southern England also bringing copious amounts of cloud and some rain. The cold front in N scotland represents a massive temperature gradient; behind it the air is of arctic origin.

Trouble is, Quantum, I'm long since am done with winter, I just want it to be all nice and warm and dry for long periods of time where I can leave windows open to air the house out (mind you, I am able to do that on this fine afternoon). I'll feel optimistic with tasty looking winter charts back in January, not in April.

Whoops, wrong thread. But as Phil said, the GFS offers some hope for early warmth - but it's all wishful thinking at this point and yes, Charmhills, I know it won't change the outcome.

I seem to recall dear old YD spent all year searching for cold outcomes

Truth is most of the extreme options end up modified and not particularly exciting

Expecting a cool N or E influence next week which is pretty normal for April with the zonal train suppressed

Sunshine is the key at this time of year. I feel sorry for the NEerners

Really think we need to watch this closley; I've bumped up the snow potential thread again. I suspect we may need it.

All looks generally chilly to average to me, with some rain around, wintry at times in the North.

GFS flirts with a couple of warmer days in amongst things, but the trend seems to be for winds from a generally Northern quadrant right out towards the end of the month (once we hit the weekend anyway).

ECM broadly backs up the GFS take on things so seems rather unlikely we'll get any prolonged spring warmth for a while yet.

Obviously plenty of scope for it to feel pleasant in any sunshine and out of the wind but it's not in any way a good set of runs if it's warmth you're after.

I guess if I was looking to clutch straws GFS does show that with warm air over the near continent it wouldn't take a massive shift to drag some of that our way - maybe something to hope for in subsequent runs (We do also have a hopefully nice warmish day to enjoy down here tomorrow too).

Straw clutching for those suffering up North from easterly clag atm - at least the colder polar air shown will bring in some crisp sunshine for you folks, albeit day time temps look to be rather unspectacular to say the least. It'll presumably help the ski centres stay in good shape though....

You lot are not true coldies. 

A true coldie gets excited about a northerly blast even when its in the middle of April!

Snow hunting season is October to June people! Since I cannot find any reliably recorded snow to lower ground in July, August or September they are the only months I take a break!

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION There remains little change in the synopses across the UK today with Low pressure to the SW feeding warm Southerly air across the South while a colder east or NE flow persisting across the North separated by an occluded front. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 3000ft-5000ft across the UK currently with the pattern of the lowest uppers of 3000ft across the North and the warmest uppers of 5000ft + remaining across the South

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will continue to be static in an omega trough form just to the West of the UK in association with low pressure to the SW. This pattern remains in situ for some time yet before the flow splits with a finger flowing East to the North but with the main cyclonic flow still at some point to the South of the UK with any simplification in this pattern occurring right at the end of the run when the Northern flow is shown to be blowing South across the UK with the main flow still well South near Africa. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the showery and eventually cooler theme by the weekend as colder winds come South behind Low pressure just prior to the weekend. Then a ridge moves into the UK from the West with a fine but chilly spell by night with some frosts before cool and changeable cyclonic conditions return quite quickly from the South next week with rain or showers and some hill snow possible at times, this chiefly over Northern high ground while in the second week winds maintain a Northerly element as well as keeping the risk of night frosts alive where skies stay clear with a sun and shower mix by day, these especially in the East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is similar to the operational in theme with cool winds from the North or NE the main feature of the period. A drier phase at the weekend is soon displaced by Low pressure from the SW next week before this is superseded by another surge of cold air from the NE with the heady April mix of sunshine and on high ground wintry showers with the cool and changeable conditions under pressure systems from the North maintained out to the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today offer no clues as to the pattern we are likely to lie under in two weeks time as there are equally sized clusters around Low or High pressure being influential across the UK at that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a better prospect at least for the South following the exit east of Low pressure out of Southern Britain at the weekend. Until then a sunshine and shower mix in quite warm temperatures in the South while the North has a cloudier and cooler spell with some rain. Then all areas become cooler at the weekend with the weather settling down if rather cool wit the risk of frost at night returning. Then the North might become a bit more showery early next week under Low pressure zones near Norway.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate only slow changes in the next 3-4 days before Low pressure to the SW finally moves away East over the weekend with a ridge following and although cool out of the sun and definitely by night when some frost is possible

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today is very much more High pressure based from the weekend as the current showery Low pressure finally moves away and is replaced by High pressure, not ideally positioned for the UK with the centre often to the West and allowing a rather cold Northerly drift to be maintained and certainly allowing the risk of frost to be a very real one.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is not so good and while it does fill the current showery Low pressure up at the weekend any ridging from the Atlantic that the other models show is muted with shallow Low pressure still close enough by to permit some showers at times, again in rather cool air sourced originally from the North or North-east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows High pressure governing the weather across the UK from the end of the weekend as the current showery trough across the South finally loses the battle from Sunday. The weather will become dry but with the High pressure always to the West and the NW eventually things never look likely to be very warm after the next few days. There could be some showers at times again later in the East wintry on the highest hills and more importantly whilst dry and settled for most other areas frosts could become a major problem for gardeners and growers should synopses develop in this way.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is leaning more towards a cool Northerly the likely option for the UK in 10 days time with High pressure anchored out to the West and Low pressure towards Scandinavia

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a more definitive agreement shown between the models this morning of High pressure becoming much more dominant across the UK next week, positioned to the West and ensuring cooler air for many.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.9 pts to 58.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.7 pts to 38.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There are better signs today that the weather could become more settled as we move out of the weekend and into next week. In the meantime the generally rather warm and showery weather in the South and cloudy damp conditions over the North continues for several more days with Friday looking potentially quite wet for some. Then as a cool northerly envelops the UK behind the Low pressure will be rising from the West with dry and fine weather increasingly likely. However, with cold air across the UK sourced from the North and the main High centre staying to the West it always look like chilly with no doubt some frosts at night where winds are light and skies stay clear. This more settled pattern is shown to be relatively short-lived from some models with deteriorations shown either from the South or North so there is a lot of doubt on any particular outcome at this stage. The one thing of note is that there looks likely to be a lot of High pressure at Northern latitudes next week and this is not necessarily good news in regard to temperatures as the door remains ajar to repeated cold pools to be pulled down over the UK in association with High pressure well north in the Atlantic. However, if High pressure can settle towards Scandinavia we are getting to the point in the year where this could start to feed warmer air up from SE Europe over the UK but this is I'm afraid not shown at the moment with the bias much more on a rather chilly period with a lot of dry and bright days but with some very unwelcome frosts in places looking inevitable and some showers at times with even a little wintriness on Northern hills at times.    

Next Update Thursday April 14th 2016 from 09:00

Indeed, but hemispheric upper air patterns rarely deliver the regional scale synoptic types we see in spring during winter.

Latest model runs in simple form for the kids to understand.

ECM: Signs of things settling down and drying up.

GFS: LOL.

To be fair, in the short to medium term at least, the GFS and ECM don't seem massively different? 

Of course, this is just one run, etc.