Deep FI goes for something quite pleasant in contrast:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0

JFF

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure down to the SW of the UK will begin to move NE towards the English Channel tonight accompanied by an occluded front which will move North over Southern England later. Another front will move South over Scotland tonight with very much colder air moving South behind it towards England and Wales over the weekend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 3000ft-5000ft across the UK currently with the pattern of the lowest uppers of 3000ft across the North lowering further to under 2000ft in a few days time and these very low uppers moving down across all of the UK over the weekend with snowfall a risk for a time over higher ground even in the South.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost for a time next week. Perhaps more showers again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream pattern will slowly change over the coming days as the steep trough in the flow weakening and simplifying as the main arm of the flow is pulled further South with the UK lying in a much slacker North to South drift for a time. Then later next week it looks like the trough could realign across the UK as Low pressure to the South moves back towards the South of the UK for a time. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current showery flow across the South with low pressure to the SW give way over the weekend to colder High pressure feeding in from the NW. This then sinks down across the South and away to the SE next week as Low pressure and showery conditions return later. However, changeable is a good term to use because High pressure is shown to return across the UK later and this time it could be rather warmer with light winds from the SE and some pleasant Spring weather towards the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is somewhat different in the way of maintaining the next week unsettled phase a little longer spliced by higher pressure later this weekend especially in the South whereas later in the run the theme towards warmer and drier conditions again across the South in particular is brought about by rising pressure over nearby Europe and winds backing towards a warm Southerly at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a real mixed bag of options with the biggest share of the pack keeping Low pressure in control either just to the East or SE of the UK. in balance though there is some High pressure shown too with a 20% group in contrast putting High pressure close to the SE so confidence in long term predictions remain low.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure developing across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week following the expulsion of Low pressure away from the East of the UK on Saturday. This will bring fine and chilly weather with frost at night for a while before warmer SE winds develop in response to High pressure moving away to the East and possibly spelling a return to more showery conditions again from the SW by midweek next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the transition from unsettled and showery weather to cooler and High pressure based conditions later in the weekend and start to next week. Some weak troughs across the North early next week could cloud things over there with some light rain at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure building across the South of the UK later in the weekend with a weak westerly flow for a time across the North. The current showery theme will dissolve over the weekend with cool and fair conditions. Then next week High pressure migrates North and showery weather could return from Iberia across the South and later east too as High pressure finally moves out into the Atlantic and setup another cool and showery flow across the South and East with the best weather then in the North and west while staying chilly everywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the same build of pressure at the weekend slowly giving away again by the middle of next week from the South as showery Low pressure from both the South and North regain control of the weather over the UK by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today looks a bit like GEM as it jostles High pressure around the UK over the latter half of the weekend and start to next week before Low pressure from the South returns warmer but showery air north across Britain midweek leading on to High pressure drawn out into the Atlantic later with a chilly and showery NE flow developing then across the South and East while dry but cool conditions with frost at night looks possible still across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues the theme of High pressure likely over the Atlantic in 10 days time with Low pressure to the east and NE meaning a cool Northerly flow likely over the UK with some showers by day and frost by night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a more definitive agreement shown between the models this morning of High pressure becoming much more dominant across the UK next week, eventually positioning to the West and ensuring cooler air for many following a somewhat warmer phase midweek next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 38.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be getting a good handle on the course of events over the next 4- 5 days across the UK although the longer term outlook still looks a bit mixed between the different models. In the short term there looks like a change to cooler but drier weather across the South and I know many have had a very pleasant couple of days others have seen some very heavy showers and these showers will if anything become more numerous and widespread in the coming days before colder and clearer air spreads down from the North over the weekend as the Low pressure that's been down to the SW finally exits east into Europe. The air will be very chilly for mid April and frosts at night under clearing skies will be a big feature early next week in the South whereas the North might turn more cloudy with a little rain as troughs brush East to the North. Thereafter it's all about how the High pressure responsible for the better conditions in the South moves North and allows a period of warmer SE winds ahead of a return to heavy showers later next week as Low pressure finds it's way North from Spain. The general theme then is for the possible return of colder NE winds as there is a lot of support for High pressure to become anchored out to the West of the UK with cool showery winds from Low pressure near the SE to affect Southern and Eastern areas at least but we are talking a long way out by then and confidence on any one evolution from late next week verifying comes with lower than usual confidence. What is more certain is that frosts at night remain a big risk at times over the coming few weeks with any Northerly influence escalating the risk further so gardeners beware. For the rest of us the next few weeks will probably end up having seen a lot of dry and fair weather for many just punctuated by April showers but if I had to be picky I would prefer to see rather more of a Southerly influence to the air-flows across the UK rather than the North especially given we are edging towards May.    

Next Update Friday April 15th 2016 from 09:00 

Dream run from the ECM!

... for January

Hopefully down here in the south with sunny mornings temperatures will still manage to reach double figures around noon before the early afternoon hail and sleet showers develop.

with sunshine double figures would be an almost certainty down here for us 😉 

Cmon guys snow is snow; whether its in January or mid April! Its as if on March 1 a switch is flipped and people go from eye balling the -10C 850hpa isotherm to the +10 850hpa isotherm. 

Plus wouldn't be awesome to say "I lived through late april 2016, the coldest half month in over 200 years".

Okay I know that won't happen but still! Forget about spanish plumes for now, there is plenty of opportunity for that later. Now, its frost, snow and arctic winds!

Anyway, the 18Z has a long fetch northerly and wintry showers for NErn parts

Yes next 12 days are looking very interesting indeed.

This April 2016 we continue to get Northerly blasts, bringing noticeably chilly showery and at times hill snow as well.

Then we expect as we have already this april seen High pressure transient areas giving a few dry and pleasantly bright sunny days for much of the U.K., with Low Pressure to our South and SW and SE, bring heavy thundery showers, and humid weather in short spells.

It's been both wet and also dry at times this month, and there been one or two air frosts in my part as well, some chilly days particularly by night.

GFS and ECMWF appear to agree by showing sustained confidence for this setup, with areas of heavy rain with Low Pressure NW and West USA SE Central and SE USA with small breaks in conditions (Briefly dry and very sunny and very warm in between with transient flirting ridges of High Pressure.

They keep redeveloping South to North moving Low Pressure areas (both ECMWF and GFS as well as UKMO) over Western North Atlantic W Gin Sea NE Canada SE Greenland Iceland and NE Europe PV Polar Pushing East NE wards.

A regular rinse and repeat Quasi Stationary blocking high mid North Atlantic, Across Central and NE Greenland the Central Arctic, and South SE Europe away from SW Europe on which catches Low Pressure NE Azores SE Biscay and Spain W SW France from Monday-Tuesday next week lol.

The conditions are doing their best keeping the warming episodes affecting some parts of the mid Latitude but giving the Polar Frontal Low's easy West to East breakthroughs!.

Typical that we get decent winter synoptics in the second half of April. Grrrr! I shall say that catch phrase: "if only it were January!"

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure will move East along the English Channel today with a complex pattern of occluded fronts over the South and North accelerating away South tonight as a cold Northerly flow develops for all by tomorrow that in turn followed by a ridge of High pressure across the South on Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are falling markedly across the UK over the coming days from around 5000ft to nearer 2000ft over much of the UK through the weekend before rising slowly across the North by the start of the new week. Patchy snowfall over modest high ground is possible for a time, mostly over the North today and on the highest hills of the South too tomorrow morning.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost for a time next week. Perhaps more showers again later especially across the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream pattern is changing as I type as the trough in the flow breaks up as the flow splits with a cut off Low to the South maintaining the main flow well to the South but with the UK lying under more of an influence to the Northern portions of the flow which is weaker and trending to move South across the UK at times.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure dominance across the UK over the next few weeks. A lot of dry weather is likely across the UK for much of the time but the one negative is the positioning of the High which is nearly always to the North or NW and allowing chilly Northerly winds to affect the UK for much of the period with some occasional showers especially in the East and South and more importantly some further frosts at night.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is very similar with High pressure mostly dominant out to the West of the UK with some showery rain moving South or SE across the UK at times with temperatures generally ending up somewhat depressed with the risk of night frosts although it may be somewhat warmer in the South for a time early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show good support for High pressure to lie out to the West of the UK in 14 days with chilly Northerly winds likely at that time. The problem lies in how close High pressure is to the UK at that time and most members suggest not close enough with Low pressure close by with some rain or showers for many and only a total of 10 of members suggest High pressure close to the east of the UK offering a rather warmer and drier prospect.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a High pressure ridge just about holding on across the South to start next week with the North likely to see a little rain as troughs brush by to the North in a Westerly flow there. Then High pressure builds across the UK towards midweek with mostly dry weather for all with temperatures on the rise.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs clearing South tomorrow with cold Northerly winds briefly before a ridge builds across the South at the end of the weekend and for all by Day 5 with fine and dry weather but with frosts at night where skies stay clear.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure building across the South of the UK later in the weekend with a weak Westerly flow for a time across the North. Then a few days under High pressure brings fine and settled weather for all but with frosty nights before the High slips further towards the West and NW later keeping the door open for cold North or NE winds to re-invade the UK later with heavy and in places thundery and wintry showers with temperatures below average especially in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the same build of pressure at the weekend slowly giving away again by the middle of next week from the North as Low pressure troughs down from the North with a chilly North wind and showers to end next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today looks a bit better than recently although the theme of chilly North or NW winds is maintained. The difference is that this morning's run shows High pressure closer in to the West late in the run with lighter winds and less risk of showers though I think frosts would still be an issue by night especially in low lying areas. Before we get there though there is 4-5 days of fine and settled weather developing with some sunshine and settled weather with temperatures recovering a little for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues the theme of High pressure likely over the Atlantic in 10 days time with Low pressure to the East and NE meaning a cool Northerly flow likely over the UK with some showers by day and frost by night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Still a lot of High pressure dominated weather in prospect for the UK with the trend for High pressure to finish up to the West or NW of the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 84.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 59.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.6 pts to 38.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  There seems reasonable agreement on the fact that High pressure is going to play a large role in the conditions across the UK over the next couple of weeks as we lose the Low pressure based pattern centred down to the SW of the UK that we have had this week. So today sees the last of any warmth across the South along with the heavy and thundery showers as we pick up a cold Northerly tonight and tomorrow with some showers, wintry on hills for a time. With pressure rising quite quickly the cold Northerly soon gets replaced by lighter winds but with cold air aloft and near the surface night frosts look inevitable especially tomorrow night. After a little rain on a Westerly breeze over the North early next week the High pressure gradually exerts influence across more of the UK next week with some warmth returning for a time. However, it doesn't look the start of a long warm spell as the positioning of High pressure looks far from ideal in the longer term. It is likely to end up over the Atlantic or even further north to the NW keeping the door open to the North for chilly winds and potential showers from Low pressure over Europe to affect at least the South and East at times as well as maintaining the risk of cold nights with some unwelcome frosts. Nevertheless, for those planning outdoor activities there looks to be a sustained period of decent weather coming up with some sunshine and although record breaking high temperatures look unlikely, away from those pesky cold April showers conditions for most will end up acceptable through the period.    

Next Update Saturday April 16th 2016 from 09:00

Met Office Warning issued 09:46 for Heavy rain this afternoon for the South West...

And for snow and ice for later up here. 

Not surprising really http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn121.gif 

Scorchio!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Freezio!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Quite a dramatic change later next week. Will the ECM ease back on the cold plunge later next week as it normally does?

Nope - well, not in my case anyway. February was quite pleasant here - we had trees in blossom, flowers sprouting and a decent amount of sunshine. It felt like spring had sprung early, and after the horribly wet & cloudy December and similarly rubbish January, it was more than welcome. I'm just not interested in snow now - it had all winter to appear and only did so on two or three occasions.

So, as much as I'd like to be excited by the prospect of snow, it just ain't happening now.

seconds to that 😊

we're just over 6 weeks from meteorological summer, but in reality summer conditions will in all likelihood arrive earlier then that here - it's just the norm. 

I appreciate your from the north East quant which is a land that rarely knows summer 😂 And I know this from first hand experience haha.. 

Stunning run from the ECM12z

YUK!! 😩😭😋

Staggering ECM days 9-10; stick a disturbance in the flow in there for the overnight period and you have grounds for lying snow in lowland England even in the far south. In late April!

It would soon be gone the following day of course. I hope that if it does turn cold, we can turn one of the old sayings around and say that what goes down must come up - Spanish plumes next month in exchange, please! ;P

EC has been consistent for the last few runs.

GFS does this too!

The signal for a significant late season arctic blast continues to show and grow for late next weekend. All very typical of a post El Nino winter. It would eclipse this weekends effort should it verify 

Looks like one of those rare occasions when forecasting 7 to 10 days ahead is possible with some confidence. Quite possibly one of the UK's most notable weather events for a while.