Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A Very unsettled week ahead with showers and longer spells of rain.

Tomorrow I'll have a discussion about the AMO looking at what's going on in the Atlantic + What may be ahead as well.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen!

EDIT: Here's out latest AMO Discussion video:  http://www.gavsweathervids.com/amo-discussion-2016.php

Cheers as always, Mr Ridge Gavinpart.

Thank You Gavin for the April showers.. Come what may we love the weather... 

Gav, could you repost that chart from the 80s which showed just how far south the negative AMO extended its grip at that time?

Thanks Gavin.

^^^^^^^

Thanks guys. Your very kind! 

Here's today's (first) video update:

AMO Dicussion (April 2016)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking at the warming and cooling cycles of the Atlantic Ocean (and SC a chart from last cold AMO period is included  )

Will put this on it's own page later with a written summary if you can't watch the video.

Thanks for the video on the AMO Gavin, I found it very interesting

It was a topic that was briefly discussed in the TWO Climate Forum last year. I realise you didn't go into any possible causes of this 60-ish year full cycle but it does seem to be a bit of a mystery as to what is behind it

One interesting point is that if you plot the full global annual SST (HADSST3) against the annual AMO index you get quite a high correlation of about 78% which goes up to 83% if you take 10 year rolling averages of HADSST3 and AMO index. As the area of the Atlantic wouldn't seem to be large enough to have that much effect on the full global average, my belief is that the AMO is not just a "local" phenomenon to the Atlantic but is some manifestation of a full global cycle as seen in the Atlantic

On a technicality, I think (?)  the NOAA data chart you showed with all the negative anomalies between 1963-1995 is a detrended list which has the long term AGW signal taken out first so as to show the index more clearly.

Hi Lanky, some interesting point there. And thanks for explaining the negative anomalies from between 63 and 1995. I hadn't realized that.

I think you are probably correct with your view that the AMo is just one part of a much larger global cycle. I suspect the PDO and El Nino/La Nina are all part of the same intra-decadal cycle.

Anyway, latest AMO update now has it's own page and I've given it a written summary for anybody that can't watch the video

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/amo-discussion-2016.php