To my recollection Kieran, you predicted a record-breakingly mild December when I and others doubted you, and in that regard to you were proved spot-on. However (and please correct me if I'm wrong about this), you did say that you expected things to turn noticeably colder in the early part of 2016 while you were out of the country. They didn't, although the record-breaking mildness of December wasn't repeated. Your prediction on a notable wintry spell after the turn of the year didn't materialise.

I think it depends on where one was last summer. It wasn't a decent one generally speaking where I live, a pretty poor one overall I say.

I appreciate that southern parts of the UK did rather better in the early part of the summer, but from what I remember ever there things turned more unsettled in the second half, while things improved a little up here.

Summer 2015 was decent here - an average June and August, with a poor July in-between. June actually started off rather poorly with a lot of cool weather but got better as it progressed. The month turned out sunnier & drier than average. Average max temp was slightly above avg but the nights were chilly.

I'd take it again this year, although I'd rather have a poor June and a good July and August. Of course, having June-Aug all above average would be the best scenario, much like in 2003 which was a pretty good summer - one of the few summers where all 3 summer months were warmer than average. 

Correct David. I anticipated a wintry spell in January that didn't materialise. However I did say also that January and February  would be noticeably cooler which it was. So my December call was spot on but Jan and Feb were probably no more than 50% accurate. 

Still better than others but nowhere near perfect of course.

I have read Matt Hugos analysis and it's an excellent read but like my LRFS these models are very experimental.

Ultimately none of us know what will happen but the basis of my LRFS over the year has been pattern matching and SSTs and that will always be my methodology.

People say pattern matching is futile but in my view it has just as much credence as any other method. It's all purely experimental. 

Don't worry, I have a feeling you will be pleasantly surprised.

If you want to talk about pattern-matching, this May has reminded me in many ways of May 1994 which was dominated by a pattern of HP to the north and lower pressure to the south of the UK, That resulted in my area having a predominantly good May while down south had rather more by way of unsettled, sometimes thundery conditions. The summer that followed was in my estimation a predominantly good summer, although not on the same scale as the great summer of 1995.

To be honest, over the past 10 years or so, good Mays up here haven't been much if any more common than good summers. We probably had more good Mays between 1989 and 2001 than we've had in the 15 years since 2001.

Had to check the title of the thread, thought I'd miss-clicked

GFS (IMBY alert) is a mixed back by the looks, although plenty of useable weather about - the developing LP on Sunday/Monday is still there which isn't encouraging, especially as the wife has invited loads of friends round for a bbq on the Monday

All FI and minority option but we're not a million miles away from some noticeably chiller air being dragged over us from the North in deepest FI. There's even a couple of sub zero runs 

 Edit:-

Shows up even more clearly oop North - June skiing anyone?

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough lies East to West across northern Britain moving slowly North and weakening further through the day. A slack airflow lies across Southern Britain with instability developing from the South over the next day or so as warmer continental air filters NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is expected to remain South of the UK for much of the next few weeks. It currently is blowing east across Southern Europe in association with lower pressure down there while higher pressure to the North keeps the northern arm well away to the North, also weak. It's not until the final days of the next few weeks that the flow looks like it could move back North towards the UK as pressure finally falls somewhat to the North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure maintained to the North of the UK over the next 10 days or so with Low pressure to the South and SE edging up across Southern Britain early next week enhancing a thundery shower risk even more after these become prevalent at times over the weekend. Then through the second week the UK wide Easterly flow veers more Southerly as High pressure slips SE down over Northern and Eastern Britain with Low pressure over the Atlantic edging North with any rain from this restricted to the far West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows very similar synoptics over the first 10 days with easterly winds and a lot of dry weather for the North while the South lies at risk of thundery showers at times as Low pressure remains close enough by to the South of the UK, Unlike the Operational Run the High pressure at the end of the run remains to the North with Low pressure edging across the UK albeit rather slack with showers or rain at times for many areas then.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a mixed pattern with the bias today on higher pressure attracting a 40% cluster lying somewhere near the UK. However, this allows 60% to show a mix of options ranging from UK based Low pressure (10%) to the rest indicating an Atlantic flow from Low pressure further away to the NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled weather taking us out of the Bank Holiday weekend as Low pressure from Europe drifts West across Southern Britain with rain, heavy at times in the South. With High pressure near Iceland the North would stay drier and brighter and probably warmer than elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the same theme of the Operational data with the main theme of instability under slack and showery conditions across the South at the weekend with the main talking point next week being the migration west from Europe of Low pressure into the South with cool and unsettled weather likely.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows the easterly flow between High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South and SE remaining the dominant weather pattern for the next 10 days. On this run the early week Low pressure moving into Southern Britain shown by other output stays to the South of the UK so the spread of general rain looks more limited so a lot of dry weather in the North over the next 10 days but a continued risk of thundery showers occurring over Southern Britain in relatively warm and humid weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a sustained period of east or NE winds between High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South and SE with thundery showers at times especially over the South while the best weather remains likely in the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South and SE again this morning with the North seeing the brightest and warmest conditions especially towards the Highlands of Scotland. Elsewhere the risk of heavy showers and thunder at times remains a strong possibility as winds remain from an Easterly point with Low pressure near the South feeding instability up into the South of the UK at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night continues to show a lot of slack pressure over and around the British Isles with the risk of showers remaining in light winds and reasonable temperatures overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models for some considerable time.  

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.3 pts and GFS at 85.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.4 pts to 52.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 37.3 pts to 33.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Not much to be said about the models this morning that hasn't been said already in reports from previous days. The main theme is the continuation of High pressure slow moving to the North of the UK while our continental friends continue to import to the South some thundery showers at times, some days more than others. Temperatures will be well up to average or above and it will feel rather humid at times in the South. However, as always in an easterly flow North Sea Coasts will see a lot of cool and sometimes cloudy, misty weather in onshore winds while Western Scotland over the two weeks could see very little rain and maybe some of the highest temperatures in the glens. It should also be mentioned that in the early days of next week a more coherent spell of rain and cool conditions could spill west across Southern and eastern parts before the pattern resets to the North/South split in conditions again later in the week with more dry weather in the North and showers in the South. There are small hints only of a drift towards a more normal SW flow developing late in the period but hint is at far as it looks this morning so overall we have to look forward to a protracted period of warm East winds with humid air especially in the South looking likely to persist for some considerable time with the NW always looking the best place to be for guaranteed dryness and it's not often that can be said in the UK.

Next Update Friday May 27th 2016 from 09:00

18, 20, 19 for the weekend and BH here albeit with a chance of some showers on the Saturday.. This is Metoffice 😊

GFS 00z, looks very wet on Monday that's for sure!

Trough over the UK midweek according to UKMO

An encouraging set of ensembles with a lot of warmer than average weather. 

with SLP added:

Plenty of high pressure from midweek

UKMO looks better this morning with the high just about winning out still the risk of some rain or showers in the south with the trough never far away

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The basic story of High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South looks like remaining for the next couple of days at least with slack and unstable winds from the East affecting the South in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week as Low pressure remains to the South of the UK and High pressure to the North. However, this morning there is a theme of moving the Jet Stream North and strengthening it in the second week as Low pressure finally repositions itself to the NW with higher pressure over Europe by then.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure maintained to the North of the UK over the next week or so with Low pressure over or to the South of the UK continuing to promote the best conditions for the North of the UK while thundery rain or showers affect the South at times. Then through the second week Low pressure builds North over the Atlantic and eventually allowing pressure to rise to the South and SE with winds swinging more to a SW or West direction with rain at times returning to the NW while the South and East slowly become largely dry with more intermittent rain while temperatures stay well up to normal or somewhat above in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run disagrees with the Operational Run in the second week as it shows High pressure being maintained to the North of the UK with Low pressure to the South maintaining a largely Easterly feed across the UK with thundery showers at times edging up into Southern Britain at times even out to the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows no dominating weather pattern likely to be present in two weeks time with most members showing very slack conditions across the UK with the risk of showers for some but no really unpleasant weather likely.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure to the SE and High pressure strengthening further to the NW at the start of next week continuing to promote winds from a NE quarter, quite strong with time and continuing to bring the risk of some rain at times towards the SE and although some warm air around some cool weather too under any persistent cloud and rain and more generally near the East coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts main message this morning revolves around how much progress is expected into the UK from the East of Low pressure developing over the Low Countries on bank Holiday Monday. The current thinking is that the second half of Monday could be very wet in the East with a lot of uncertainty on how far West that travels before Monday's end. By Tuesday showers or rain looks very likely overall of England and Wales as the Low pressure is shown to make landfall over the SE.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows the easterly flow lasting throughout next week before just weakening a little at the end of the run as the UK then falls under very slack pressure. In the meantime the easterly flow maintains the risk of rain and showers at times across the South, thundery in places while the North sees largely dry and bright weather though even here these areas are not immune to a shower. The end of the run shows fairly benign weather over the UK with fewer showers in general.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a sustained period of east or NE winds between High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South and SE with thundery showers at times especially over the South while the best weather remains likely in the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South through much of next week with thundery rain or showers at times in the South and East while the best weather remains to the NW. Then towards the end of the run this morning High pressure to the North slips SE to the East of the UK with Low pressure then lying across the Atlantic veering winds to a warm SE flow with the risk of showers restricted then to the far West and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night continues to show a lot of slack pressure over and around the British Isles with the risk of showers remaining in light winds and reasonable temperatures overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least with just a shuffling around of pressure systems in an overall benign an quiet weather pattern.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 95.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 86.3 pts and GFS at 84.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 57.3 pts to 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 35.6 pts to 34.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Changes from the models again today remain quite small and focused at the least reliable end of the output runs. In the meantime a continuation of quite benign weather patterns remain although a quite nasty area of Low pressure close to SE Britain early next week could result in some very wet weather for a time. Outside of that the weather will often be bright and warm with some thundery showers at times across the South. Throughout much of the period the best weather will often be over the far NW of Britain while some cool sea mist and haar may affect the East coasts at times but on balance the weather will feel quite warm and humid. Then looking for signs of change longer term there is still some hints of a shift towards lower pressure moving further North over the Atlantic with pressure rising towards the East and maybe SE late in the period. Should that occur a slow shift of emphasis of any showers will move towards the far West while the East and SE see the driest, warmest and brightest weather by then. However, all this is embryonic at the moment as well as being well outside the reliable time frames so let's see how things develop i the coming days to see if there is a growing trend for change as we move deeper into June. I won't be near a PC over the long weekend so there will be no report from me now until Tuesday so enjoy the warmth over the weekend and let's hope that inclement Low to the SE doesn't spoil the party for many on Bank Holiday Monday.

Next Update Tuesday May 31st 2016 from 09:00 

Low pressure moving right over the UK next week as per the beebs thoughts the other night looks unlikely going by the past 2 runs from UKMO