I'm sensing shades of 2013-14 😏 Though perhaps this sensing is more wishful thinking 😄

please elaborate! Are we in for a cool and poor June over the next 2-3 weeks?

there was a fair amount of northern blocking around in late May and June during 13.. And I'm sure also 14.

June 13 was a fairly crap month for a lot of folk but for us down here it wasn't, July was epic nationwide. Hottest month since 2006 at that time. 

July 2014 was a scorcher too... 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850_arc.png?cb=579 

Three blowtorches aiming poleward and at near equal spacing around the hemisphere - a well defined wave number 3 setup. Having one of the blowtorches aligned across the UK is, unfortunately, not guaranteed!

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Looking at those charts it looks like a continuation of cold misty weather here!

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Temps on the up in the latter stages of ECM's run this evening high 20's maybe even the low 30's for some

Yes much better for Edinburgh at last Gavin if those charts verify. Gone is the constant NE wind and instead gentle S/SE winds may allow us to break the 20 C barrier here

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First signs of a change in the output this morning as pressure falls to the north and rises to the south east cutting of the easterly flow.

This would transfer the best of the weather to the south east which if course is the default position.

Oh well such fine conditions couldn't last forever and it's been an excellent spell of weather in the north west.

Andy

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LOL! We normally go to the Lakes for Whit weekend to stay in a log cabin/lodge type thing. Due to big price hikes this year & lack of availability, we plumped for a change in North Yorks.

The weather's not been bad, but know that Langdale, Keswick or Ullswater would have been better! Think it's called sod's law.

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Looking at the synoptics for the coming week,if these were repeated Dec-March just imagine how cold the winter would be and maybe a lot of snow as well.

Hmm, I doubt it.

 

Meanwhile a remarkable set of ensembles showing distinctly warm upper air as we head towards deep FI when things get very uncertain.

Could be a cracking start to June, second week up for grabs.

12z London:

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I'm always cautious if June turns out to be very warm.. because a very warm June will often mean either July or August will be crap, or both. Of course there are examples of all 3 months being great like 1976 and 2003, but they are few and far between.

I remember the start of June 1995 being atrocious, and tbh I'd take an atrocious June if it meant a good Jul-Aug period.

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Reading the front page summary for the forthcoming week and beyond I get the impression there has been a downgrade into next weekend and beyond for the south at least. Can anyone throw any light on what the weather pattern is likely to evolve into as we head into June?

Not sure I would class June, July and August of 2003 as all being "great", merely good or mostly good from the point of view of my area. I have long been of the view that people's memories of the 2003 summer are skewed somewhat by the record breaking heatwave in the first half of that August. Had it not been for that heatwave, then it would probably have gone down as no more than a reasonably good summer. There had been some short-lived hot spells before that, but nothing that was sustained from what I remember.

June 1995 didn't start brilliantly, but from the point of view of my area the summer of 1995 was better overall than that of 2003 as according to my memory as the heat and sunshine in my location was more prolonged than in 2003. The good spells in 2003 seemed to be more broken up by unsettled spells, as least prior to the aformentioned early August heatwave.

 

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Quite a cold 6z. Early June temps in the low to mid teens is not very summer like. Brrrrrrrrrr.

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OK in the SW as it always is with relentless N blocking.

Without seeing the ensemble pack it's futile to judge the run anyway(especially being the 6z).

Brian has summarised current thinking quite well today. The Atlantic is waiting ;)

i couldn't agree m ore I think we are in for a very cool summer now

I'll need to revisit this in a months time. Calling June before it's started is impossible to know IMO

Much easier to call when it's over 

Indeed! But I think you know what I mean #doom-mongers

Absolutely 

IMHO because of our location and the many variables attached to the UK's weather, any sort of mid to long range forecasting for this area in any month or season is pretty much impossible, I didn't always agree with Matty H (much missed around here) but on this point I did. However, I do feel that there are those amongst us that castigate and ridicule others for seemingly writing off periods when history and probability perhaps back up the claim. For example, some on here were saying winter is over (an easy call in the UK) in December because the overall picture looked pretty poor, many people cried "we are only 2 weeks into winter" and we all had a bit of fun at their expense. Then in January the response was "Feb is always the coldest month" and in Feb it was "I've had snow in April here, so there". It's the same with summer, it's not over, it's barely begun, but the lack of warmth, the positioning of that stubborn high and the general pattern in the northern hemisphere could be something that is very hard to shift, as a lover of extended warm and settled periods I just hope we are not here in August trying to find Indian summers at the very far end of FI.

The current output across most models suggests a change is not imminent. Some decent high teens temps and dry spells, mixed with north west, north or north easterly winds.

Just my annual two pence. See you in September

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Thing is, I don't think there is anything in particular about this year that would signal an impending dreadful summer. If anything, history shows us that a) a poor start to June or indeed a poor June overall can easily turn into a great summer overall (ala 1995 - the 11c max we recorded in early June was at the time the lowest summer max), or a great June can turn into a horror show for July and August (ala 1992). Or indeed, a crap June can lead to a crap summer overall (2007), and a great June can lead to a great summer overall (2003).

I guess the most sensible thing to do is to just wait and see. 

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Edinburgh has had a cold and very dry May no doubt about that. Looking at this morning's MetO and ECM models though I am feeling optimistic for this area up to June 10th.
The High ridges south more and our month long NE wind becomes a light northerly. Eventually the High weakens and slips to the east pulling in light SE or S winds. I think this indicates a warmer spell for the great cities of Newcastle Edinburgh and Aberdeen.
After that I think we will reset to the default pattern of a wet and windy NW as I have 2 weeks holiday in the far NW.....call me unlucky Alf.....bugger! 😆

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 31ST 2016

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure over the near continent will push troughs West across England and Wales today and tonight with High pressure remaining centred to the NW of the British Isles with a chilly Northerly breeze in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the NW at first and the SE later. Occasionally warm.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week as the pattern of Low pressure over Europe and High pressure to the North continues. Then through the second week a steady increase in strength of the flow and patterning of the Jet stream develops with a West to east flow developing either across Southern Britain or to the South late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows two quite separate weeks in terms of weather with the first week maintaining a theme of Low pressure to the SE and High to the North with an East or NE flow across the UK slowly weakening over next weekend as pressure across the UK becomes even North to South. Then after a period of quiet and settled weather unsettled weather spreads up from the SW across most areas with rain or showers at times and temperatures and winds returning to June averages later as Low pressure lies close by over or to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif  

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks at odds with the Operational in the second week in as much as it prefers to keep High pressure to the North of the UK then with further thundery showers at times easing up from Europe or the Southwest in generally light winds, humid and warm conditions for many.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows a lot of Low pressure weather patterns likely across the UK in two weeks time. The main thrust of this Low pressure shows a centre close to the North with an unstable Westerly or slack flow across the UK. Other scenearios indicate Low pressure in other locations close to the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack Low pressure to the SE and High pressure towards the North of the UK. Further Low pressure lies across the Atlantic to the WSW of the UK by the end of the week with a very slack airflow expected to be maintained across the UK with thundery showers or rain at times across the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain the pattern of High pressure to the NW and Low pressure over continental Europe over the next 5 days with troughs of Low pressure crossing England and Wales from the East becoming weaker and slow moving late in the week near Southern England.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a slow reversion back towards a more normal pressure pattern across the UK next week with Low pressure moving up to the NW of the UK and fronts taking a more traditional route NE across the UK by then. In the meantime the status-quo of present persists with Low pressure over Europe sending the risk of thundery rain at times across Southern areas before the South and East become warm for a time before the troughs to the North and West take over later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slow change towards less in the way of continental Low pressure and swaps it for slack pressure patterns next week with a small pressure gradient across the UK by this time next week. Any rain and thundery showers looks like slowly becoming more restricted towards the far west and NW later as the South and East in-particular becomes warm or possibly very warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows another week or so of either NE winds or slack pressure meaning light winds across the UK as the theme of lower pressure to the SE and higher pressure to the NW is maintained. Then as we move through next week a change in the pressure pattern is accomplished as Atlantic Low pressure is finally able to make it's way up to the NW of the UK and spread more traditional spells of wind and rain North and East across the UK by the end of next week with the driest and warmest weather then likely towards the SE.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night is not a million miles away from that of this morning's operational 10 day chart as Low pressure is shown to be edging into the West of the UK from the Atlantic with winds swinging South with rain or showers at times especially towards Western Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems to be a slow pattern towards a change in the pattern across the UK, probably next week as High pressure to the NW finally begins to give some ground to the Atlantic Low pressure.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.4 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 95.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 84.5 pts and GFS at 82.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 52.2 pts to 46.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 31.4 pts to 30.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The UK is still locked in this theme of High pressure anchored to the North of the UK and lower pressure over continental Europe. North or NE winds continue to bring the risk of cloud and rain, sometimes thundery in from Europe across the South and East of the UK. Through the remainder of this week it appears that the pressure gradient weakens across the UK by the weekend with slack pressure bringing some thundery showers still especially over the South but quite warm and bright weather as well. Then as we move into next week there seems a growing desire to bring a more traditional pattern across the UK as pressure to the NW falls a little and sufficiently enough to allow Atlantic Low pressure to make it's way slowly NE towards NW Britain finally allowing winds to veer more towards a warm South or SW flow with the emphasis of rain or showers slowly reverting towards the North and West with some warm or very warm weather in the SE. I must stress that this is still not a done deal and there are still some big differences between some of the output on the events of the second week, many of which maintain a lot of Northern High latitude blocking which could in theory result in conditions not dissimilar to those of present and I think it will be well into the second half of this week before the models show any sort of cross model agreement on events beyond next weekend. So in the meantime for many the weather is not too bad with just local nuances revolving around pockets of heavy and thundery rain revolving around Southern Britain and this will continue as long as pressure remains Low over Europe. The NW remains the place to be for the warmest and sunniest conditions for some time yet before we may see the SE claiming that honour next week if the above sequence of events takes place.

Next Update Wednesday Jun 1st 2016 from 09:00

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