Summer is here (at least meteorologically speaking). Please place your June CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries is 23:59 on Thursday evening (2nd June).

June historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 14.1C
1981-2010: 14.5C
1996-2015: 14.6C

We have not had that many very warm June's in recent times. 2003 and 2006 were both well above average at 16.1C ands 15.9C respectively. But other than that you have to go back to 1992 (15.7C) to find a June with a CET more than 1C above the 1981-2010 mean. Both 2003 and 2006 were of course followed by hot July's. 1976 saw a similar pattern. 

There are also several examples of a very warm June being followed by a poor July and August. 1950, 1960, 1970, 1992 are all good examples.

Since 1992 we have only had one June significantly cooler than the 1971-2000 mean and that was in 2012 (13.5C). That said four of the last five June's have been disappointing with figures (from coolest to warmest) 13.5C, 13.6C, 13.8C, 14.0C. 

Here is a chart of the June CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

First half of the month looking generally a little warmer than average at the moment

ECM

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

A lot of scatter quite early on in the ECM ensembles at the moment so plenty of uncertainty.

Met office
Contingency planners forecast not yet available. 30 day summary suggests probably slightly warmer than average conditions overall.

Pattern matching (JFF)
Not much to say again this month. However, a couple of points that can be made. Generally there is no precedent since 1950 for a warm May to be followed by a cool or cold June. So expect June to be at least around average. 

Where we have had a cold April followed by a warm May, we generally see June as slightly or significantly above average. 1989 is the former with a slightly above average June, whereas 1970 saw a very warm June. The other match is 1953 which again saw a very slightly above average June (compared to the 1971-2000) mean. 

So overall I would suggest there is a good chance of June being a little above average with a smaller chance of a very warm month.

Here is a first look at the June CET

[Data to follow later today]

Thanks GW for running this competition, I'm sure all participants are very grateful.

Can anyone remind me of the stations that comprise the OFFICIAL CET figures?

Thanks

WI

p.s. Is the key to the averages posted above correct or is the numerical data correct as the 71-00 and 81-10 LTA's contradict eachother?

Thank You GW.   Going for   15.8c.   Please.

I think June will be colder than average possibly significantly so. And after a dryish start probably very unsettled too.

So I will go for 13.5 degrees and wetter than average. Charts are trending cooler and more unsettled too. Think summer 2016 will end up being pretty dreadful. 

Thanks GW.

15.15 C  for me please.

Another tough one this month wouldn't surprise me if we get a significant heatwave at some point. But there is nothing in the models at the moment.

So a slightly higher than average 15.19c please.

Thanks again GW

I'll go for

14.5C

16.5 for me please

14.7 please.

Thanks GW

14.0 for me, please.

14.9c for me please

Thanks GW!

I'm going for 14.8c please.

Do you mean 16.5 LL?

15.0°c please.

15.47c please.

14.8C for me please

14.7C please