ECM forecasting a col situation by the end of the next working week:

Other models such as GEM have a nasty low afflicting the east coast, again...

Warm/humid and thundery Met/o 00z.

The ECMWF, UKMO and the GFS are looking chopping and changing and they simply cling on to NSGFGNTW from Tuesday to Friday 96 to 144hr time.  South and SE warm and Sunny versus Low Pressure and cooler in the NW and North Britain.

It looks like the GFS and UKMO are playing a cat and mouse game this past 4 days model watching.

Very warm and chance of Thundery Low - either model, never say which one tells the whole story,Cool air meets v. Warm hot and humid and dry air mixed in, light winds from the South Wednesday to Thursday then Col variable direction SE Britain could see quite a few storms coming up across E. Channel from Calais and Brest direction up north through London and SE England.

Given the UKMO and GFS not showing clear winner then I guess they are just sure themselves of the outlook.

Monday 20th looks thoroughly wet and windy ahem.  And Friday may remain very warm with T-Storms in SE England from Thursday and it should turn cooler and drier with light SW or NW flow across Britain on Saturday.

 😎⚡️🌩🌞🙁.

The GFS is warmer for SE parts on Friday, and the ECMWF looks like similar to GFS at Friday t144, much of the UK under changing pressure from high to low, and the following trend after it is Low Pressure in charge particularly by 2nd week Monday and Tuesday both GFS and the ECMWF show Low Pressure in charge with cool wet and rainy weather.  The UKMO 12z run today strangely goes against the GFS and ECMWF by keeping an Azores or West N Mid Atlantic High extend itself ridge over the UK re-introducing dry sunny condition fresher cooler but very warm in sunshine.

To much uncertainty in making forecast beyond 96hrs today methinks. They all are odd on mid range 120hr to 240hrs. More model runs needed.

Those other more clever models could help here!!.😄

What is "FI" ?

Fantasy Island - ie weather as depicted in forecast synoptic charts at times of t144hours plus, give or usually take a day.

There are so many options you can believe what you want type of thing...

Have to say the models are continuing to churn out some very uninspiring stuff for late June/early July.

Haven't really had a proper summery spell yet and time is running out already. Nights start drawing in on Wednesday.

I believe summer 2016 will be on the whole, very uninspiring, and no heatwaves of any kind. It's also considerably wetter than average, and I can't see that changing either.

I'm sure someone said that before #echo #ark 

Tell us something you haven't told us before eh, Kieran?

Models are in a s***e state at present though. All over the place and largely unsettled and cool.

what a load of bollocks.. Already had a heatwave in June granted it lasted only a few days but it was still a heatwave! And we are only half way through June!! Now we still have the best part 2.5 months of summer for yet more heatwaves and seeing as July & August are the hotter months any heatwave then will likely be even warmer.

heatwave passed me by too, love to see the evidence for that.....

No heatwave here either.  Fog - yes. Drizzle - yes.  Heavy rain - yes.  Heat - None whatsoever!

Tbh it would be v.rare down here to get through the whole of the summer without even one short-lived heatwave. I suppose it depends on your definition of a heatwave though - does the typical British two hot days & a thunderstorm count?

Well MBY got just that. Been a bit wet since - but even the rain hasn't been of the 'boring steady light rain' and instead been of the more exciting 'torrential downpour' variety.

Nothing particularly inspiring in terms of prolonged summery conditions, though

Depends on your definition of heatwave I guess. We reached 26C in early June but I can't possibly consider that a heatwave. 17-19th June 2000 would be a good example of a short-lived June heatwave, reaching 30C on 2 consecutive days (highest 32C), and 29C on one day (IMBY, that is).

We topped 25c for 4 or 5 consecutive days, and reached 21c for about 12 days running, with some great spells of prolonged sunshine and next to no rain. That meets my definition of 'heatwave', especially for early June.

It was one of those rare 'west is best' scenarios, though, so written off by the SE/E contingent

See, I wouldn't call that a heatwave either. Maybe my standards are higher but I would just call that a good spell of weather, not a heatwave which should, you know, have some heat, hence the name..  25C is nice and warm but I would be hard-pressed to call it hot, even in early June.

Yes. June has been pretty much a write off as predicted. More than double the monthly rainfall across much of England. July and August could very easily go the same way.