ECM 12z end on a warm and thundery note.

No, the pressure ensembles show a repeat of this week is very unlikely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

Still some noticeable precipitation spikes for next week, but the white, mean line is moderating, so yes, drier (and warmer) next week, without being a summer sizzler (which is how I like it).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

FWW the rainfall has been extremely variable. For instance, Winchester has had 5mm and Southampton 6mm this month so those places (private stations) have avoided Moomins ark although some places have been deluged.

Next week looks warmer but rain will again be very variable

It's so weird watching you hope for some HP guys. Meanwhile in the Greek weather forums ppl keep wishing for cool weather and lots of t-storms But, instead, we got a week-long heatwave ahead... Up to 44C is expected in heat-vulnerable places. Maybe Crete will hit a new record with its foehn winds...

Is it normal for the UK to have so much rain during the summer? Almost every time i check the forecasts there is a low nearby..!

Yes it's oh so much different down here in Southern Europe. Being at the other end of the Med from you it is much the same. Fuengirola Weather Station here in Southern Spain yesterday reported 38C which is well above average for June. What's more staggering on my seafront hotel balcony last night at midnight it was still 32C. The late night Sangria on the balcony took a miss last night in favour of an air-conned room. Today is approaching similar figures and there is a drought of clouds throughout Spain it seems this week. All due of course to yet another spell of blocking weather patterns which has been less fortunate for the UK this week. Things to me look a little more likely to change a bit at least for the South and SE of the UK next week.

Incidentally, my own rainfall stats for June only measure 12.4mm so far so we have obviously missed most of the action where I live.

Its pretty dire here - June turning out to be somewhat of a disappointment so far here.

Looks like a SE - NW split on Monday with the best of the weather in the south and the NW most at risk of some rain or showers

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/fax/PPVL89.jpg?cb=299

There seem to be quite a few active lows well to the east, over Russia/Scandinavia/E Europe; is that normal for this time of year? They look like proper frontal jobbies, not those slack things or heat lows you sometimes get.

What is a heat low?

Promising update from UKMO

The runt of the litter is isolated.

ECM goes with UKMO:

UKMO is the pick of the bunch so far

ECM pretty decent Day 5: Met O will need to get their forecasts altered for next week as they are woefully off the pace at the moment.

High 20's easily with that for me ☀️😊👍🏼

Blimey, the 0z GFS really ramps up the heat and humidity next week. Big changes from as early as T+132 and just gets hotter and hotter with a proper plume. Upper air temps on the rise and (although FI), the 15c isotherm is flirting with the south by next Saturday and the 20c isotherm by Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2042.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2342.gif

Must be a hot outlier, but if this came off, we'd be looking at some very high temperatures and some severe thunderstorms thrown in for good measure, especially with a CAPE/LI like this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn20411.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24011.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

WOW - 20c minimum and CAPE off the scale!

Definitely an outlier!!

Yes the 00z was an outlier - but it wasn't completely alone, with a few runs developing hot conditions. The UKMO at +144 is also interesting with a high positioned over Europe and to our East - it looks warm!

The ECMWF will be interesting.

At least is very normal to get a hot spell and we are well overdue for a hot spell for 2016.  Even if 20C is a outlier at least at 17-18C uppers would be the results and at the maximum daylight peak, we still can get 34-35C in right conditions.  At least in a right time for my 7 week holiday starting this weekend onward.

The ECM 00z is warm but a little mixed in fi and turns cooler from the west.

GFS 12z offers not one but two 15+C upper plumes, with 10C frequent after mid next week. Be interesting to see the ensembles when they show on TWO.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_222_mslp850.png?cb=347

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_372_mslp850.png?cb=890

Interesting.