Not Benign but Very Unsetlled with Major Series of North Atlantic PV, and major Trough's joined to it from the West and South, main winds West SW and WNW flow, dominating UK and NW Europe, Scotland and NI weather, inc. rest of Ireland etc.

GFS look set to maintain this weather setup for next 10 days, but warming up with Thundery rain or showers at day 9-10.

After that it's FI to far to be sure.

Plenty bands of rain sunny spells and heavy showers and average to slightly above average and slightly below average temperatures expected, with UKMO and the Fax charts also agreed with and GFS.  Even Norway and N Europe looks likely to see unsettled conditions with brief lulls.

💦😎🌦☁️☔️🌩. Lol.

Although South and Southeast Britain this Sunday and Monday will see some lengthy dry and bright weather but not entirely, as late Sunday Early this coming Monday some rain for a time here as well.

Update: Looks dire, ECMWF model much like the UKMO and GFS but it differs from T216 Sunday 3rd July, similar to GFS but with earlier Low Pressure crossing UK, further heavy rain and windy conditions, with Monday 4th July looking notable cool with winds straight from the North (the Arctic). By 216-240 Svalbard could again see quite a drop in temps. Friday 1st July UKMO and ECMWF + GFS bring further cool very wet weather. This needs further watching.😅🌩.

Agreed. As far as the weather is concerned though its not far from average - ie mobile westerly.  Warmer in the south, cooler and cloudier and wetter further north and west.

And the eye can see 6 days.  Give the crap a rest moomin.

This thread is to discuss the model output and not for you to go off-topic to plug your own forecast. The constant writing off summer comments are both irritating and misleading not to mention antagonistic. The comment about model accuracy and the c. 6day period is not only relevant it is statistically appropriate.

Back on topic and any further posts discussing your forecast in this thread or doing so indirectly by "writing off" the next 2 months+ are liable to be deleted. This is nothing personal but the but model output thread should be about the model output not the seasonal outlook nor one member's seasonal forecast.

That output shows an unsettled, albeit not unseasonal outlook with some fine conditions around in parts of the south and east for much of the time. Pretty standard stuff - could be better but could be much worse. 

ECM shows the chance of some warmer and humid air developing in the south from around this time next week and lasting for around 3 days before getting replaced by some fresher conditions as pressure begins to rise from the south west

Funnily enough average temps have been what the CFSv2 output has always been showing for the UK summer (and it still is, right through to December in fact):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

No real surprises, since those maps are just the average of lots of model runs, and the actual weather has been dutifully following suit.

Not much of a post, I know, but what else is there to say when everything is perfectly normal?

That is a daft comment to make Kieran when it's only the 26th day of June. We're not even a third of the way through the meteorogical summer yet. If this was now the beginning of August I'd have more time for that view, but that is a long way off at this moment in time.

The models for the coming week or so do look unsettled, but as Gavin D has said above, there are a few indications in the ECM of pressure attempting to rise to the SW as we go through the first week of July.

My reasoning is because when patterns get stuck in place they are very hard to shift in this country. As was the case with my winter LRF I really hope I am wrong but will be happy to discuss at the end of August. 

Back to the models as I PROMISE to stop harping about my LRF, the 0z ECM is showing a bit more hope as it appears to be a more typical north west south East split with some possible settled weather. 

Mood on this site a total contrast to 12 months ago when all the focus was how hot it would get on 1st July.

With the models indicating a cool week ahead, some locations could max over 15 degrees lower on that date this year.

The ECMWF model brings drier much warmer humid weather back by 3rd-5th July, the UKMO 144 for 2nd July is coolest and wettest.

The GFS is again very Strange when compared to the ECMWF and I believe it needs to get a fix. It gets Sunday correct as South very warm and humid with marvellous sunshine for 3rd July.

It looks much different for 4-5 July compared to ECMWF.

It sure is getting another points down for today.

😆😎.

Not necessarily. There have been many instances over the years in this country at various times of the year when a pattern which had been in place for a while ended rather abruptly and without a great deal of warning. I'll give a couple of examples below from past summers.

June 1995 was one summer month during which there was a major change from a cool, cloudy and sometimes unsettled pattern which dominated the first half of the month to a countrywide heatwave which commenced around the 21st. That set the tone for what followed. Also, the first half of summer 1990 was often cool and unsettled, but there was a major change in pattern around mid-July to something much warmer and drier, and early August 1990 gave us the hottest day on record in the UK prior to 2003.

Anyone who thinks that prevailing weather patterns cannot and don't change very quickly in this country doesn't know the nature of the British weather, IMO. That's why your reasoning is questionable, with the greatest of respect.

You were correct about December, I'll give you that, although in my view that was more down to sheer luck than any particular forecasting skill.

That said, you were not as accurate with your thoughts about what would transpire after the turn of the year (IIRC you said that you thought it would turn noticeably colder and more wintry compared to December). We had no notable wintry spell in either January or February; both months were still mostly mild albeit less mild and less wet than December was.

Is that one of his "singularities" ?

Having seen today's 12z GFS, UKMO and ECMWF Model charts, it clearly looks Very breezy windy, cloudy very wet at times, even on Sunday as well, but conditions start improving somewhat by Monday 4th July, and by the 5th July they all obviously are bringing further West to East across UK Low, certainly by 240hours.

This needs continued attention from us.

Plenty more cool and showery weather involved as well, notably cool nights forecast.  It could turn warmer but that may be followed by more cool stuff. 😃☁️🌩🌦🌧☔️.  Some parts could see further flooding. 

By the way David M Porter: There was also plenty of hot and sunny weather mixed in with some changeable wet weather in May 1990 in London and it affected also Central SE UK widely at times 26-28 was recorded in London and it was proper heatwave(s). 

And that's just that.

Signs of the Azores High ridging in towards us.. I'm getting feelings of deja vu.

Ouch!