Overcast.  Raining. 18.6c. Humidity 77%rh.

Kieran, myself and other mods have been generally pretty patient up to now & the last thing I want to have to start doing is deleting posts. However you are now starting to try my patience ever so slightly. If you insist on writing off the rest of summer, then we have a summer prospects thread for that discussion which has been running since early April. I suggest you make use of it and keep this thread for the purpose for which it is intended.

On topic from here on please, and any more posts writing off the rest of the summer from anyone will be deleted without further warning.

I Am leaving this place for now. You've all got your way and forced me our just like you all did with Gooner. Very sad times for a once great forum.

So long.

Fine, have it your way Kieran.

Like I said though, this is the thread for model discussion; there is a separate thread for discussion of summer prospects and I suggested you use it for comments about the summer as a whole instead of using this one. Why you have taken exception to that, I have no idea.

And why the accusation of "double standards"? Are you trying to tell me that you are psychic and knew for a fact the MetO would change the timing of the anticpated change to more settled weather?

Well I for one come on to this thread to read discussion and analysis  of current model output. In recent days and weeks all I seem to have seen is summer being written off and people discussing that. What David has rightly said is that this not the thread for such posts. This has been said several times before, so if you want to sulk about it Kieran, you cannot say the warnings were not given or applied fairly. No-one is forcing you anywhere simply asking that you stay in topic and leave discussing the summer outlook to e thread on the summer outlook! 

Thanks Michael.

The AZ is there, but it doesn't want to build in properly.

but why? It loves to poke it's nose in come winter😀

GFS 12z is generally poor, but a shocking fi lol.

Met/o not to bad with a weak ridge for a couple of days before a trough rolls in from 144hs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_384_2mtmp.png?cb=695

Please look at the extraordinary temperatures on the N Siberian coast. 34C in this one. There seems to be huge, persistent gyration around low pressure, characterised by easterlies over N Scandinavia. Outcomes: for us, conveyor belt lows. For some, sustained warmth. I know nothing of this, but SSWs were discussed in winter and disappointment followed when resultant N blocking didn't happen. Is it possible that all haven't got their heads around this phenomenon in terms of delayed outcomes? Could a perceived SSW in winter lead to 'wrong-way' air movement in summer?

I have watched a video and an article that has http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2016/06/29/jet-stream-crosses-the-equator/been posted in a popular site.  We have switched our QBO to Easterly this year. And Something strange is going on with the Equator and Polar Jetstream on about 26-27 June ish time.  The Polar, Subtropical and Equatorial Gyres are pulling sharply north and waving diving South, and breaking through Equator breaching in Mid Pacific N to S and similarly in East Central Equatorial Africa and linked with similar breach

in Central Indian Ocean with PFJ Streams flowing on a stream NE to SSW, Spinning Low Pressure as well as bulging areas of slow to move High P areas.  This is related to the Stratospheric Vortex, and through Jan- June 2016 this reversing QBO circle cycle with Easterly QBO messing up our current climate.  This could affect the Seasons especially winter and Summer by causing unseasonal conditions with Jetstream that could at times weaken and well as strengthen, and it is resulting in  warming around the globe.  We are seeing record low Arctic Sea Ice and Arctic warming up much more quickly than in mid Lattitudes now that reflects what is causing this N Siberia Heat lol.

🌛😀.  I find it quite interesting what GFS is showing as well as what ECMWF and UKMO are showing us is to be continued dominating large part of Europe with warming and also cooling in same locations as has occurred since Mid March to now and next 7 days. Southerly Tracking Jetstream pushing SW the Azores high, Low pressure UK and Norway with wet and cool summer conditions windy at times, while SW Central and NE Europe see Hot and Sunny High Pressure that breaks down from W Europe by Subtropical Southerly flow SW W Europe after two week periods of cool and wet and then North and West Europe join the mobile SW to NE moving cool weather with hot humid thundery Low Pressure affecting W Central S Europe soon after it cross NW Europe- and High Pressure cells in Scandinavia NE Europe develop as soon as Azores high pushes across South UK, and that then moves NNW from NE Europe to SE Arctic NE of Norway!. While that happens the Jetstream pushes East to Scandinavia from NW Europe.  I also notice Far E Europe W Russia has often hot dry sunny High pressure persist for upto two weeks at a time ahem. All this I put here taken from ECMWF, UKMO and GFS 0-144 hrs at various times and the pattern shows up very well in Bracknell Fax charts as well. Some days I see large TSTSTM and areas of Scattered High and Low Pressure in Southern Europe even particularly this summer. I notice often Low Pressure in SE Spain N Africa and over Turkey and Black Sea's SW and South with Thundery weather as well at hot humid and some hot and dry air and sunny conditions under the persistent Low Pressure that sometimes spreads NW to other parts in SE Europe, but then a drop in temperature happens to an extent as flash floods help cool the air via Severe TSTSTM's.

We are well and truly stuck-in-a-rut! - Little end in sight to this unsettled pattern, right through to mid-July.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Poor update from Matt.