Model Output Discussion 05/05/16 19:20>>>· Page 21

Charmhills
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 16:56:09

#501

GFS 12z so far doesn't look very inspiring with the odd weak ridge though from time to time but that's your lot.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 18:29:05

#502

This is showing signs of one of those "summers" that just never gets going. The models taking us to mid July now with still no sign of anything decent. It has a 2012 ish feel about it and shows the deterioration that was evident in many of the long range models. Very very uninspiring stuff. Will soon be half way through the meteorogical summer and nothing summer like has appeared yet. Very disappointing.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 18:35:21

#503

ECM 144 may or may not be accurate but paints a less miserable and depressive picture:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 18:42:34

#504

ECM 144 may or may not be accurate but paints a less miserable and depressive picture:

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

One day only offer though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Shocking charts again.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 18:53:17

#505

One day only offer though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Shocking charts again.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

The charts are not shocking, they are typical mobile westerly. Here is the chart for day 9, looking even better, fwiw

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

doctormog
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 19:06:13

#506

All just rather typical stuff for the UK really (and nowhere near the depths of summer 2012). Better conditions the further south and east you go, generally unsettled but not a total write off.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

LeedsLad123
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 19:12:15

#507

GFS shows below average surface temperatures on most days. ECM doesn't have such data publicly available so it's harder to gauge what the conditions would be like on the ground.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 19:37:26

#508

GFS shows below average surface temperatures on most days. ECM doesn't have such data publicly available so it's harder to gauge what the conditions would be like on the ground.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123

Well if you check link:http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

At least we get some information publicly available.

Not to forget mentioning forecasted/predicted rainfall as well.

Then this is a very useful and often posted link on this MO Discussion.

Just thought of brightening up this discussion.

It has the NCEP and ECMWF Ops upto 10 days ahead.

Edited by user 29 June 2016 19:52:26 | Reason: Not Specified

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 20:03:57

#509

The charts are not shocking, they are typical mobile westerly. Here is the chart for day 9, looking even better, fwiw

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

OK Not shocking, but far from summer-like, and the GFS is just complete mush!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

ozone_aurora
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 21:47:53

#510

This is showing signs of one of those "summers" that just never gets going. The models taking us to mid July now with still no sign of anything decent. It has a 2012 ish feel about it and shows the deterioration that was evident in many of the long range models. Very very uninspiring stuff. Will soon be half way through the meteorogical summer and nothing summer like has appeared yet. Very disappointing.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

It is. Well, there's September to come, which often does bring at least some fine weather, especially in SE half of UK.

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 21:56:53

#511

It is. Well, there's September to come, which often does bring at least some fine weather, especially in SE half of UK.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora

Great. Useable weather just as the nights become longer than the days and people are planning for winter! (Which will no doubt be a milder, wetter version of summer (as per usual). Winter is over!

(Yes, this is a tongue in cheek remark to brighten the mood)......

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

David M Porter
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 June 2016 22:11:29

#512

This is showing signs of one of those "summers" that just never gets going. The models taking us to mid July now with still no sign of anything decent. It has a 2012 ish feel about it and shows the deterioration that was evident in many of the long range models. Very very uninspiring stuff. Will soon be half way through the meteorogical summer and nothing summer like has appeared yet. Very disappointing.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Mid-July is only just starting to come into the reaches of deep GFS FI at the moment, and we all know how reliable far-off FI charts from GFS are, i.e not reliable at all!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 22:20:33

#513

Mid-July is only just starting to come into the reaches of deep GFS FI at the moment, and we all know how reliable far-off FI charts from GFS are, i.e not reliable at all!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

Come back to me at the end of August and have a review of this "SUMMER" David!

They are pretty reliable when they show unremitting rain.

Edited by user 29 June 2016 22:22:15 | Reason: Not specified

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

David M Porter
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 June 2016 22:31:31

#514

Come back to me at the end of August and have a review of this "SUMMER" David! They are pretty reliable when they show unremitting rain.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Well, the MetO day 16-30 updates since the back end of last week (see the media thread) have been talking about a possible improvement generally around the middle of July, and it's worth remembering that they have access to models and info that we the public don't have access to. Not saying they'll definitely be proved correct about that, but it's enough for me to hold onto for now.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 22:35:21

#515

Well, the MetO day 16-30 updates since the back end of last week (see the media thread) have been talking about a possible improvement generally around the middle of July, and it's worth remembering that they have access to models and info that we the public don't have access to. Not saying they'll definitely be proved correct about that, but it's enough for me to hold onto for now.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

Yes they have David, but they've been calling for an improvement for the last month to six weeks, and keep putting it back.

Before long, it'll say signs are for an improvement at the end of July, then early August, then mid August, then late August, then Autumn, I don't buy these Met Office LRFs any more than you buy mine!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

picturesareme
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 22:56:01

#516

Yes they have David, but they've been calling for an improvement for the last month to six weeks, and keep putting it back.

Before long, it'll say signs are for an improvement at the end of July, then early August, then mid August, then late August, then Autumn, I don't buy these Met Office LRFs any more than you buy mine!

Originally Posted by: moomin75

and you've been calling moomageddon for just as long lol 😋

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 June 2016 23:08:21

#517

and you've been calling moomageddon for just as long lol 😋

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

I have....I admit I have. No signs of change yet.....tick tock tick tock.

Hopefully the change of month may bring some brighter prospects.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

David M Porter
Advanced Member Topic Starter

29 June 2016 23:50:47

#518

Come back to me at the end of August and have a review of this "SUMMER" David! They are pretty reliable when they show unremitting rain.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

That goes both ways Kieran. If come the end of August you've been proved right about this summer season I'll hold my hands up, but likewise I hope you'll do the same if things do not turn out as you currently anticipate.

Edited by user 29 June 2016 23:52:11 | Reason: Not specified

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

moomin75
Advanced Member

30 June 2016 00:05:10

#519

That goes both ways Kieran. If come the end of August you've been proved right about this summer season I'll hold my hands up, but likewise I hope you'll do the same if things do not turn out as you currently anticipate.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

Absolutely. Deal!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

JACKO4EVER
Guest

30 June 2016 05:27:24

#520

I wonder why unremitting vile crapfest rain always seems to verify at 7 days out yet a phantom winter easterly can go tits up at 48 hours?
We have now had well over 5 and a half inches of rain here this June, not to mention days of grey sunless muck.
And as this month draws to a close...... More rainfall is predicted and to be honest July doesn't look like improving much if current output is anything to go by.

moomin75
Advanced Member

30 June 2016 06:01:42

#521

I wonder why unremitting vile crapfest rain always seems to verify at 7 days out yet a phantom winter easterly can go tits up at 48 hours?
We have now had well over 5 and a half inches of rain here this June, not to mention days of grey sunless muck.
And as this month draws to a close...... More rainfall is predicted and to be honest July doesn't look like improving much if current output is anything to go by.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Exactly Jacko. David says that the models are unreliable so far out, but so far, they've been pretty spot on for this "summer" - unremittingly wet. The charts are just not getting any better, and if anything, we will go from warm and wet to cool and wet in July.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

Weathermac
Advanced Member

30 June 2016 07:38:01

#522

Exactly Jacko. David says that the models are unreliable so far out, but so far, they've been pretty spot on for this "summer" - unremittingly wet. The charts are just not getting any better, and if anything, we will go from warm and wet to cool and wet in July.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Actually I think there are subtle changes in the models as pressure is indicated to rise to the south over the next few days and next week yes its not building right over the uk but it should at least allow more in the way of sunshine at least for England and wales .