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moomin75
10 July 2016 07:57:47


 


I would say even much rarer to see this happening in summer.  Like yesterday at near 15C uppers which normally we get 30C to 31C temps but denied from it due to only few hours sunny spot in the morning then overcast. that all we are allowed to get in this country unlike before we get many HP days (22C-27C) leading to the 2-7 days heatwave events (28C-34C).  It been a very long time to see this occurring on the models charts for this and not sure if we ever going to get it back in our life time again.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Could 2016 become the (next) year without a summer. 


I cannot recall going through a summer without a 27c (80f) recorded. Well time is running out. The GFS continues to look rather uninspiring after a brief dry spell. 


ECM is perhaps a little more settled but none too warm.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
10 July 2016 08:00:03

Hello summer



 




DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2016 08:03:51

BBC Weather fo the Week Ahead was painting a similar picture last night, for the next weekend, while being properly cautious as to how long the fine spell would last

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
10 July 2016 08:13:19


BBC Weather fo the Week Ahead was painting a similar picture last night, for the next weekend, while being properly cautious as to how long the fine spell would last


Originally Posted by: DEW 

Off topic but they weren't cautious at all. Very clearly said that the HP will be very transient and short lived with a quick return to changeable conditions by next weekend. So maybe one dry day on Friday before a return to rain.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
10 July 2016 08:35:42


Off topic but they weren't cautious at all. Very clearly said that the HP will be very transient and short lived with a quick return to changeable conditions by next weekend. So maybe one dry day on Friday before a return to rain.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Or they'll backtrack and have it lasting longer even UKMO has it for at least 3 days

SJV
10 July 2016 08:46:56


Off topic but they weren't cautious at all. Very clearly said that the HP will be very transient and short lived with a quick return to changeable conditions by next weekend. So maybe one dry day on Friday before a return to rain.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The models suggest a fine Friday and Saturday before the risk of thundery showers and a cool down on Sunday with a messy picture thereafter with no real sign of any pressure type dominating.

Essan
10 July 2016 10:33:00

Unlike some, I dont think the MetO (or BBC) base their forecasts on one individual model run   

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gavin D
10 July 2016 14:19:48


Off topic but they weren't cautious at all. Very clearly said that the HP will be very transient and short lived with a quick return to changeable conditions by next weekend. So maybe one dry day on Friday before a return to rain.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


What a difference 24hrs makes....



^unsettled further north to avoid any confusion^


SJV
10 July 2016 18:49:01

12z ECM looking really good from next Friday 

moomin75
10 July 2016 18:59:12


12z ECM looking really good from next Friday 


Originally Posted by: SJV 

Indeed. The best ECM run of the whole summer. In fact the best model run of any kind this summer. Extended spell of summer weather nationwide if that comes off.


Judging by the Met Office MRF I would currently be very dubious of this run, but hopefully it's on the money.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
10 July 2016 19:08:26

ECM = Summer





Ally Pally Snowman
10 July 2016 19:11:27


ECM = Summer






Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


As has been said stunning run from the ECM best of the summer let's hope it's onto something.


 


 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
10 July 2016 21:47:44

It good to see that we are heading back to normal summery pattern on the charts and hope it will be a long term set-up for normality pattern with unsettled being very brief affairs as it should be.

moomin75
10 July 2016 22:32:20
GFS 18z not in agreement with ECM at all.
More runs needed.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Sinky1970
11 July 2016 06:51:53
Yep, back to the dire stuff again from GFS, still no sign of any long lasting (or short term for that matter) genuine heat this morning.
cultman1
11 July 2016 08:16:25
Yet another back track from the models. No mention was made of ANY improvement from this Friday on the Radio 4 Farming 5 day weather forecast. Just a continuation of changeable conditions with wind and rain in evidence....It looks like the dire summer most of us are experiencing will continue for the forseeable future.
Jiries
11 July 2016 08:51:21

Yet another back track from the models. No mention was made of ANY improvement from this Friday on the Radio 4 Farming 5 day weather forecast. Just a continuation of changeable conditions with wind and rain in evidence....It looks like the dire summer most of us are experiencing will continue for the forseeable future.

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


The models are playing dangerous game on us and it been rubbish lately in the short term as they kept showing unsettled weather here in the last few days but it been nice on the ground surface and no rain so far.  At some point which the models always keen to keep UK out from having a summer will be brute forced to put HP back over us at we are well overdue for nationwide hot spell.  Not a single hot spell so far this year yet.

Charmhills
11 July 2016 08:56:37

Looks like the models, have a gone Pete Tong look about them this morning.


The Atlantic takes firm hold again!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
cultman1
11 July 2016 09:00:05
...and with the weather stuck in the same conveyor belt pattern I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the most of the rest of the summer remains this way . Purely based on the Atlantic's total dominance of our weather since early June, combined with high pressure over Greenland, and the jet stream mostly blowing well south of us. A cocktail for windy, cool, and wet conditions totally in control of our weather........
Charmhills
11 July 2016 09:10:27

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/752422245696475137


GFS ENS highlighting this trend now away from better weather at the end of the wk/into next wkend with LP returning


Backed up by Matt.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
bradders
11 July 2016 09:13:32


 


The models are playing dangerous game on us and it been rubbish lately in the short term as they kept showing unsettled weather here in the last few days but it been nice on the ground surface and no rain so far.  At some point which the models always keen to keep UK out from having a summer will be brute forced to put HP back over us at we are well overdue for nationwide hot spell.  Not a single hot spell so far this year yet.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

You should try living in the Northwest, We`ve had 29.7mm of rain since last Friday.


Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.
JACKO4EVER
11 July 2016 09:13:44
Moomins ark apocalypse could well and truly be on,more crapfest charts only 12 hours after the countryfile week ahead gave a super end to the week. Oh who would be a forecaster ? Lol
Charmhills
11 July 2016 10:00:36

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=205&run=0&lid=ENS&country=GB&lat=52.7667&lon=-1.2000


I found the GFS ems for Loughborough!


Mixed it is though.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Rob K
11 July 2016 10:46:57

Yet another back track from the models. No mention was made of ANY improvement from this Friday on the Radio 4 Farming 5 day weather forecast. Just a continuation of changeable conditions with wind and rain in evidence....It looks like the dire summer most of us are experiencing will continue for the forseeable future.

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


You are in London and the summer certainly hasn't been "dire" down here. Granted it hasn't been a scorcher but since early May we have had a long run of pretty decent weather in this corner of the country.


 


GFS looks a bit crap today but the 00Z ECM is still good. I think this summer is likely to continue in the "slightly better than average" category - certainly no signs of a washout as per 2007 etc.


 


Even the rather poor 00Z GFS run shows that "average" best sums it up. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
11 July 2016 11:54:29


 


You are in London and the summer certainly hasn't been "dire" down here. Granted it hasn't been a scorcher but since early May we have had a long run of pretty decent weather in this corner of the country.


 


GFS looks a bit crap today but the 00Z ECM is still good. I think this summer is likely to continue in the "slightly better than average" category - certainly no signs of a washout as per 2007 etc.


 


Even the rather poor 00Z GFS run shows that "average" best sums it up. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

You are in a very fortunate minority if you have had "a long run of pretty decent weather" Rob because my neck of the woods has seen a diabolical summer so far. I think your interpretation of decent and mine are far apart. It has been without a doubt a dire summer and nothing I see in the charts suggest any difference as we head into the last six weeks of the meteorological summer of 2016.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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