Can't really agree - This is the UK and we get this type of weather a lot in an average summer

It's been a very dry month so far and it has reached 20'c for over a week on each day which is OK

Compare that to say 2012 which was very different with a southerly trcaking jet and copious flooding

Both May and June were more than 1C above average (both in terms of CET and for the southeast region). UK wide, May had slightly below average rainfall (90%), June was admittedly quite wet (143%), although with plenty of thunderstorms, which beat dull summer frontal rainfall, in my book! For the southeast, May was slightly above average (116%) and June was well above average (175%) but again a lot of this was from thunderstorms.

As always, the gap between perception and reality seems quite acute.

Back on topic, the 06Z GFS has more HP dominance than the fairly awful 00Z. The deep low around 300hrs has been pushed well north

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

I have yet to record 25c this summer which is quite astonishing. My highest temperature recorded thus far is 24.2c - and I actually think this could become the first summer in my recorded history that doesn't get to 80f.

Back on topic, it is hugely disappointing to see that last night's super ECM was just a one-off run. All the models have reverted to type this morning and show a very disappointing outlook for the height of summer.

Eyes are now beginning to focus on late July and August to see if we can salvage some proper summer before September starts.

I won't write off summer now because I know that annoys the hell out of people, but I will say I stand by my early predictions that this summer will go down as one of the most uninspiring of recent years.....June WAS a wash-out for many people, there's no doubt about that.....July so far has been pleasant, but nothing more than that, with the charts suggesting a turn for the worse coming up soon.

Up until mid-June, I'd have scored it a decent 8/10 - a warm spell, followed by some neat pyrotechnics.

Since then, it's been 'changeable', with no proper heat and certainly no prolonged settled weather. Today is just awful.

the main thing here is the fact that it has been generally dull with well below average sunshine adding to the perception that it is a well below average summer which it isnt , we have barely had a drop of rain this month . but neither has there been any sustained warm summary spell

Loosely watching the charts over the past few days, two things are frustrating:

1) every time pressure looks to be dropping over Greenland, back it comes a day or two later

2) even though the track of a low might be well to our north, it always seems to spawn a shortwave feature along its southern flank to make sure the northern half of the UK at least gets affected by fronts

Here in the East Midlands, its been the wettest June since 2007 with over 100mm of rain +!

A better update from UKMO

One thing I've noticed over the years is that models pick up a theme and then drop it only to see it re-emerge in some form close to time. 

A few weeks ongoing already in my Part of London where it has mostly been very warm and often Sunny Spells or Periods mixed in with some Partly Cloudy occasional days or periods of days.

It looks like A NorthSouth divide in UK weather based on Today's 12z UKMO and GFS to 144.  It should remain dry but there are showers scattered about the M4 part of SE London tomorrow these then head SE.

Thursday-Saturday look very warm in Southern UK 1/3, while fairly mixed conditions over Central and N half UK at same time.

The North Atlantic and NNW Europe Jetstream still very organised it press down on High Pressure to the South SW and SE and E of us in big picture of N Atlantic and Europe, for another 7 days, with cool wet and showery westerly flow in charge with Northern Low's.

😄🙂🌞.

Another poor summer goes on by, the only difference between this and some of the other recent shockers is that we can't blame northern blocking this time, the pattern has been like a winter time one with Low pressure to the North and West and apart from the odd day or two, relentless westerlies which show no sign of abating.

Actually, N blocking has been apparent in a very subversive manner on many charts- N of Scandinavia, driving a constant E'ly component that upsets the other plans a little. Very few lows seem to get past Scandinavia, rather flopping about there before plopping into Russia. The old school-book model would have the HP belt shifting N with the ITCZ. In recent years, either the bands N of this have contracted, so summer weather is intensified in the Med and reticent here; or the ITCZ is not moving so predictably, which might also account for Sahel & Soudain spread southwards.

Sorry- bit after 'Russia' is OT.

Meanwhile, to escape the rhetoric and to talk of some charts, here are the 12zs on offer from the Met O, looking fine for the South of Britain.

Indeed

^^^ Ian you need to cheer up a little plenty of weeks left for decent summer weather or just move south

gfs also pretty good hold of pressure for s and s/e

improving slowly that mean

warm if not very warm with time for London table of contents 2m temps

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

More often than not the weather around St Swithin's day DOES show the way for the rest of the summer.  I am sure that it has not gone unnoticed that coincidentally the projections for this Friday as shown by the models over the last week or so have indicated the likely hood of a pivotal  point.  The predictions have fluctuated from the jet swinging slightly northwards with high pressure making great efforts to move across southern areas to it disappointingly digging back into the UK again with nothing more than a transient ridge.  Happily (for tonight) the first of these outcomes is shown to be more likely, at least for later in the weekend. Will the final outcome finally set the trend? Mind you, as a simple guess based on the number of let downs so far this summer I think I know where that jet will go, and it ain't up the Minches. 

Has to be said, that's two successive GFS runs showing something MUCH more summery from the end of this week.

That coupled with another good ECM 12z and UKMO 12z, perhaps the models are trending towards something more summery.

Fingers crossed.

ECM back on form this morning a very good run especially for the South.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

UKMO is promising as well

GFS and ECM have a nice bubble of high pressure with all those luscious deep reds for the weekend in the south and a day or two after, and not too bad for the north either. Alas, metO, both fax and Weather for the week ahead retreating from this position which they held a day or two ago, with mention of a stronger more southerly jet stream bringing fronts and troughs down from the NW.

A good test of the reliability of each source