Apologies but I have no time at the moment to post up a detailed summary for July. But as it is the last day of the month we best get the predictions coming in. Please post your July CET predictions below. I will keep it open until 23:59 on Sunday evening.
Historic summary
1971-2000 16.5C
1981-2010 16.7C
1996-2015 16.6C
Since 2006 July has only been above average 3 times and only once above 18C. A CET in the 15's has been a regular feature.
In fact since 2005 looking at July and August combined only 4 times has the CET exceeded 17C all of these in July. So we have not had many very warm summer months for some time.
Latest model output
The latest model output does not look promising. 850's consistently below average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Met Office contingency planners overview
The contingency planners forecast suggests average conditions are the most likely scenario for July with no strong signal for any particular pattern over the next 3 months as a whole. Potential for La Niña conditions to develop later in the year.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/0/l/Forecast-temp-JAS-v1.pdf
Pattern matching
Quickly looking at years since 1950 where both May and June were significantly above average there are 4 years where July went on to be warm (1959, 1976, 2003, 2014). One year was close to average and 5 years had a below average July including 2000, 2004 and 2007.
So the pattern matching would suggest average conditions are least likely. My gut feel based on what the models are showing is a cooler than average July with the CET under 16C seems quite possible.
Edited by moderator
29 August 2016 13:24:12
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Reason: Not specified