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Gavin D
13 July 2016 18:35:07


 


Meanwhile, away from personal diatribes, have a look at some model output.  GFS Saturday:



UKMO Monday:



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Ignore UKMO its failed to update on the 12z

Charmhills
13 July 2016 19:20:26

ECM 12z changeable from 144hs onwards and cooler thereafter with showers.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
SJV
14 July 2016 06:13:35
GFS 00z another good run, keeping things settled right through next week with any breakdown not occurring until past 300hrs.
Rob K
14 July 2016 06:54:45
Whereas ECM 00Z turns to cack even for the south from as early as Wednesday. UKMO similar. The models are no help at all at the moment.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
golfingmad
14 July 2016 08:41:10

Yes the models present a familiar picture this morning. GFS more upbeat with a stronger ridge of high pressure to the south, but with ECM and METO suggesting this is transitory and low pressure re-asserting early next week.


So the story remains the same - the Azores High planted firmly mid-Atlantic and a trough sitting close to Northern Europe. The jet may weaken a little but the basic set-up remains the same. A 'typical' British summer then - and for those looking for sustained warmth, definitely in the 'cack' category. And most definitely cack the further north you go.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
14 July 2016 10:02:26

Diddyyo...


Watch the ECMWF and UKMO bring us two very warm then hot day, and very humid v. warm hot and cloudy severe thunderstorms and SW Europe to NW Europe that includes Central to S and SE UK Heat Low plus linkage to cooler Low Pressure follow it across the UK next week from N mid Atlantic Low, with Subtropical Spain France to UK Mini Low cause a quick change from hot and humid to Severe TSTSTM and cooler from our West and SW after next Wednesday.


Edit: GFS 00z run was showing the UK under fine high pressure ridges, while Low Pressure areas smaller ones over Northwest and Mid N and NE Atlantic, warm conditions with sunny spells or periods with some cloudier occasions some days and it was promising more drier weather, but I cannot remember what it showed for Wednesday 20th, but likely it was lesser extreme than with UKMO and ECMWF. 19th July looks like a very nice day but what needs more runs is the Wednesday 20th.


☔️😎🌞⛈. SWW possible this needs to be continued in forecasts and get it close to 2-3 day range or 72hrs.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Rob K
14 July 2016 10:36:39

GFS not backing down, it seems. Very warm still on Tuesday in the southeast, but a big split NW/SE:


 



 


Ridging building back in by day 7, too... http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif


 


Let's hope it's the euro models that are going to be playing catch-up, this would be decent for much of the country: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
14 July 2016 16:23:21
And the pendulum swings back the other way on the 12Z GFS, with much weaker ridging. The models are all over the place.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
14 July 2016 16:57:04

And the pendulum swings back the other way on the 12Z GFS, with much weaker ridging. The models are all over the place.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed. Now watch the ECM go settled and warm. Who'd be a forecaster in those country?


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
SJV
14 July 2016 16:59:26

And the pendulum swings back the other way on the 12Z GFS, with much weaker ridging. The models are all over the place.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Quite. A poor GFS compared to recent runs. What's more worrying is this latest run  has come into line with recent UKMO and ECM runs, so difficult to discount it as a one-off 


What will be will be! 

Rob K
14 July 2016 17:02:01
Horrid by day 14 with a Greenland high and the UK-centred trough we have seen rather a lot recently.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
14 July 2016 17:16:47

Its mean looks stronger Rob its still up for grabs still early doors



 


 


 


And the pendulum swings back the other way on the 12Z GFS, with much weaker ridging. The models are all over the place.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Charmhills
14 July 2016 17:18:43

Horrid by day 14 with a Greenland high and the UK-centred trough we have seen rather a lot recently.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Rob, its so far off in fi, why post it at all


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
14 July 2016 17:19:55

Some will be pleased with the action potential


Polar Low
14 July 2016 17:25:30

Very warm looking chart for the south t96 ukmo for the south updating slowly wetter



 

Polar Low
14 July 2016 17:44:32

Big heat to our south many members  has pressure rising slowly behind that col it aint over by far.


Jires will be pleased with that heat to our south.



 

Gavin D
14 July 2016 18:32:36

ECU1-144.GIF?14-0ECU0-144.GIF?14-0


SJV
14 July 2016 18:33:48


Big heat to our south many members  has pressure rising slowly behind that col it aint over by far.


Jires will be pleased with that heat to our south.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Definitely some thundery potential to come, and that heat is tantalisingly close 

moomin75
14 July 2016 18:58:17


 


Definitely some thundery potential to come, and that heat is tantalisingly close 


Originally Posted by: SJV 

Indeed but after all the storms and wet weather we've already had this summer we could do with some dry weather.


Sadly this is looking increasingly unlikely and a very wet week looks more likely based on the waythe models are trending.


Very disappointing summer continues.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
14 July 2016 18:59:35

 


 


 



 


Definitely some thundery potential to come, and that heat is tantalisingly close 


Originally Posted by: SJV 

Charmhills
14 July 2016 19:01:08



ECM 12z continues with that thundery theme.


Very warm and humid to.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
14 July 2016 19:04:05

Recovery waiting in the wings good summer fun for every one.


Gavin D
14 July 2016 19:07:32
The beeb are also saying humid next week

@bbcweather

A mixed weekend to come, but next week's beginning to look sticky sticky sticky #humid John H
Polar Low
14 July 2016 19:12:05

Good runs tonight im pleased, Japs join in with again recovery latter on very interesting charts



 


 

Polar Low
14 July 2016 19:31:13

Warm to very warm run for the south gfs amongst its members for the south in its table on contents 2 metres temps for London.


I would have thought add 2 or 3c on is quite possible on that run we don't always need fab uppers in July as we all know the sun is very strong at this time of year.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0


 

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