We've seen worse charts than that this summer, that's for sure.

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The models seem to have been all over the place in recent days. Until today, the general theme being suggested by them was one of it being more settled the further south and east one happens to be next week, and more unsettled the further north and west you go. Now it doesn't look as straightforward as that and ECM 12z seems to be toying with the notion of HP trying to build over Scandi later in its run.

An interesting few days of model watching coming up, methinks.

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Hoping for some heat and some thunderstorm watching in the Channel Islands next week...

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Looks like a relatively short lived blowtorch early next week before it turns cooler and showery.

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A few days ago GFS was toying with a warm up over the weekend into the early part of next week, and this maybe on now.
Temps may peak at 30 in some areas on Wednesday, before it becomes cooler.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.gif 

The potential of thundery activity is also back, so looking good for us enthusiasts.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13811.gif 

Yes too short and that modern summer to you.  Luckily I am going away to Palestine on 20th July to 3rd August and there some serious heatwave to occur with low 40's likely in Jerusalem, I will ask my relatives it they take me to Jericho beach resort which likely to be near 50C.  I need a fix as I never felt any proper heat since Chicago in 2014.

Good agreement for some very warm/locally hot and humid air moving north, along with some thundery weather to, for next week.

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Ensembles touching on +20*c in some cases. Thats quite rare around these parts and would make for some uncomfrotable nights. Interesting episode of weather upon us. Model watching back on my agenda again 🙂

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The 06Z GFS was more optimistic for a return to high pressure than the 00Z. One run breaks the 20C barrier again on July 26. and there is a slight uptick in the ensembles around the 25th/26th.

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Rob- that run on the 26th only seems to breach the 15 barrier; but what's good about this Mon-Wed one is a) Most Ps agree; b) it's within the 5 day outlook; c) it could be at least 3 days long. I for one will be well narked if there's a U turn now.

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Or last one for 2016 summer? Just like last year early July was the last one and that it folks for 2015.  

What happened to the Wetterzentrale site that had changed now and I cannot get any info for Larnaca ensembles as it showing blank graph.  

Old style seems now to be living at http://beta.wetterzentrale.de/

New style is at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

 

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Tuesday and Wednesday could be a bit on the interesting side for thunder lovers!

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Thanks and got it now and saved it. I guess I have to get used to the new format.  They expand more locations for ENS graphs but not yet showing on the graph.  

A few days of well above average upper air temperatures for the south before the mean returning close to the LTA in FI on 12z GFS :

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Wednesday seems to be the peak of the heat followed by a dramatic cool off. Why do we never get a sustained warm/hot spell any more?

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Because our climate is perma-crap

Couldn't agree more Jacko, and you were absolutely spot on the other day not to buy into the prolonged settled spell that some of the charts were suggesting. Even I (Mr Negative) fell for it this time, because of consecutive runs (from most models) suggesting summer was about to start and we were heading towards a longer drier spell.

I should have maintained my feelings and thoughts that this summer WILL be a write off - rather than falling for what was being thrown out by a few model runs.

This summer has been bloody awful and apart from a brief ONE DAY hot "snap" - we are looking at a continuation of heavy rain and possible local flooding over the coming weeks.

Next Wednesday/Thursday looks particularly bad and I would not be at all surprised to see some emergency conditions in places if the runs come off as they are now showing.

Thing is, when the charts show unsettled and predominantly WET weather, they almost 100% verify.

When they show something pleasant, they almost invariably fail in this miserable god-forsaken country.

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crikey it must be me but hardly a shirty 1-10 day 0z ecm mean for most parts if anything 12z opp on the cool side of its members'

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

 

Why is our climate perma-crap? Because in the last few years pressure has been unevenly distributed with a strong ridge over the North Pacific associated with negative PDO, and relatively low pressure all over the land hemisphere. The very strong anomaly is clear for all to see on clinatereanalyser.

Despite this we've still had some hot and dry spells, for instance in July 2013. The PDO is showing tentative signs of flipping. If it does, the average pressure on this side of the world will rise a bit. We'll still be beholden to the immediate effects of the NAO but it means zonal weather will de drier a fee should get more sunshine.

Plus, the fact that every time we get anything resembling a southerly flow for more than 48 hours these days we get into the mid 30s on the ground and nearly 20C aloft suggests that when things flip properly, we'll be looking at some monster heatwaves.

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nav up to its many tricks or the truth this time? was closer to the mark I seem to recall last year?

Because we live in a temperate world

http://www.enviropedia.org.uk/Climate/Temperate_Climate.php

 

 

From GFS, the potential of some violent thundery activity over many areas still exists during the first part of the week.

Yes it's looking boom boom time Phil, and what's worrying me is the potential for flooding. Many places near me have had copious rainfall since early June, and GFS really ramps it up.

GFS 06z is like a slug in treacle going uphill backwards with a heavy pebble on its back, trying to roll out this lunchtime. I can hardly bear the suspense- its already upgraded conditions later next week and into the weekend with 26 on Saturday.

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