I'll bank the 00Z GFS for my fortnight in Guernsey please. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.gif

Decent support from the ECM too.

So maybe a burst of summer could be on the way then.

Very warm though not overly hot at this stage.

This week and next weekend looks lovely here Rob (sunny and low 20s), fingers crossed it stays for when you visit!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

NCEP server issues this afternoon so expect delays to the model updates

While we wait gm looks hot for the south

20 uppers on the south coast

I didn't see the forecast but was he talking about thunderstorms?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

The 1715 forecast gives a 'watch this space' caveat, not a 'lots of rain' warning; this is some minutes after your post so has the forecast bounced again? The GEFS delay is alleged to be technical- I reckon it's more about caution. Can't get past 66 hours on the TWO hours ahead frame. Lots of U turns at short range is worrying.

Hmmm TS imported?

Big heat to our S/E

GFS12z ran on time today. The reported problems relate to the servers which distribute the datasets, not the model itself. Things seem to be gradually returning to normal.

Yeah apologies Moomin; for some reason I thought your post timed at 1702 & it was 1802. Not sure why I've failed to read 24 hour clock all of a sudden. Well, that's even more miserable then.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_84_precipratec.png?cb=995

The rain is there in the north, but even now the skulking GFS is showing drier conditions in the S on Saturday.

shes running slowly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0

not much wet stuff on that

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=103&mode=1&map=330

Warmest air kept farther south at the weekend.

That will be a blessing.  The atmosphere in these parts cannot handle any kind of big heat.  Ive had enough thunder here for the moment and gentle sustained warmth will do nicely, thank you

might be a safer run less likely attack from n/w

looks a better run jet starting to fork

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=5&carte=1

yup that will do very nicely thank you me lady

Lets hope so moomin cracking mean ,, reach for the cold cider