Lovely GFS 12z  A little interruption at day 11/12 but strong ridging thereafter the end the run. Would be a welcome spell of warm and settled weather for most should it verify 

Yep a very good 12Z GFS this evening. Going to keep my fingers crossed at the moment and hope that it keeps up with it into tomorrow anf beyond. So far that one gets a big thumbs up from me so far!

I agree, more runs are needed in a similar vein before confidence in a significant improvement are confirmed. How many times have we seen the models post a favourable outlook, only to be dashed on the rocks the following day?

Still, having said that, I am quietly confident. After all, this constant crappy weather cannot endure for the whole summer, can it?

Must admit Jacko, having seen the latest BBC long range forecast with John Hammond, I'm slanting back towards this idea too - because they are pretty bullish that "heat remains on hold" and that the jet stream takes a direct route through the middle of the country.

They must have no faith in GFS, and to be honest, the picture they are STILL painting is a continuaton of the crapfest summer we had had.

I am starting to get get an uneasy feeling that we will see further backtracks tomorrow with the GFS backing down towards a more unsettled pattern.

This summer is pants!

I think you need to take a break from this thread. One moment you're elated and the next you're miserable. Maybe stop letting every little detail affect you so greatly? What will be will he.

Evening Jacko, as it stands JH thinks any warm weather will be short lived , time will tell of course .

I've moved a few posts this morning. Please either stay on topic or take a break. If anyone has an issue deal with it via PM. This thread is to discuss the model output, not each other

High (ish) pressure lingering on into next week, although GFS 00z looks very tenuous and uncertain after the weekend. A slow breakdown occurs into FI with more organised low pressure taking over (but way into FI). GFS temps seem low for the weekend though?

All to play for but more runs needed 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Gfs 0z looked flipping amazing. Flipping cautious though. 👌😊

The form horse remains a zonal set up. The south can do OK out of this with the modifying effects of Azores ridging but other places are likely to be non-descript or even crxp

Arpege is IME usually closer to the MetO solution than GFS. It shows the south being warm on Sat:

Last time I experienced 52C was at Riyadh Air Base in Saudi Arabia. It's not a temperature I would recommend...

Certainly looking like a temporary warm-up toward the SE, but everywhere else is looking changeable. No fun at all for the golfers at Royal Troon. Apart from the latest offerings from GFS I am struggling to see any resurgence of the Azores High - it remains well to the SW allowing the jet to make its presence felt. Another comment from Philip Hammond a few days ago suggested the current set-up needs a violent jolt to alter the pattern - something like an ex-tropical storm to displace the pressure patterns. No doubt this will happen but it'll probably be later on in the year, which will be too late for this summer.

GFS 12z is very nice, with high pressure taking charge into next week with increasingly warm air drawn up from the south. 

Meanwhile, away from personal diatribes, have a look at some model output.  GFS Saturday:

UKMO Monday:

The GFS 12 isn't to bad, warm with some sunshine, but some thundery weather possible later next week before cooler, more changeable weather moves in wants more.